能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 4 截至11月25日一周内，俄罗斯海运原油买家进口量较前一周减少23%。随着美国制裁生效，印度和土耳其等主要买家纷纷削减采购量,全球范 围内，俄罗斯原油运抵外国港口的数量在11月下旬达到峰值，自11月21日美国制裁生效后持续下滑。新制裁措施针对俄罗斯两大石油公司-- 卢克石油和俄罗斯石油公司--这两家企业约占该国原油出口总量的一半。 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻报道，当地时间27日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，本周晚些时候，乌克兰团队将与美方代表继续推进日内瓦会议成果的落实，致 力于将其转化为引领乌克兰实现和平与安全保障的具体形式。 2 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月27日，俄罗斯总统普京在吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克表示，美方代表团将于下周到访莫斯科。此前，对于 "28点"新计划，俄方一直认为其可以成为开展谈判的基础。但俄罗斯外交部副部长26日的表态却明确提出，俄方在当前关键问题上"不会 作出任何让步或放 ...

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GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本周日OPEC+将举行新一轮会议，预计2026年第一季度保持其暂停增产的政策不变。目前国际原油市场的主要交易逻辑未发生变化，利好 来自美国对产油国的制裁政策延续和地缘局势的不确定性，而利空则是原油增产预期及全球经济、需求欠佳。地缘局势来看，缓和趋势延续，乌 克兰仍在对俄罗斯境内目标维持袭击，但不稳定性依然存在。预计短期原油价格反弹空间有限，长期仍是维持震荡偏弱格局。 PX&PTA PX国内整体负荷维持高位，海外工厂低负荷运行。印度BIS认证取消对出口格局形成利好，供需格局偏紧，支撑周内PX加工费继续上涨， PXN价格持稳在260美元左右。本周国内PTA供应持续缩量，行业通过主动调控开工率的"反内卷"逻辑正在发挥作用，工厂库存小幅去化。下 游聚酯负荷高位持稳，不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱，高开工或不可持续。但PTA加工差有所修复仍低位运行，预计价格 短期内依旧 ...

PTA期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 PTA反弹高度或将有限 宁证期货 PTA震荡对待 西南期货 短期PTA或震荡运行 11月28日盘中，PTA期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至4718.00元。截止发稿，PTA主力合约报 4700.00元，涨幅1.21%。 宁证期货：PTA震荡对待 聚酯库存低位，短期聚酯负荷预计大幅下降风险不大。PTA负荷下降，PTA供需结构阶段性相对较好。 成本端也有支撑。PTA震荡对待。 西南期货：短期PTA或震荡运行 综上，短期PTA加工费仍偏低，库存维持低位，成本端原油震荡偏弱运行，原料PX价格支撑有限。短 期PTA或震荡运行，考虑谨慎看待，注意控制风险，关注油价变化。 中辉期货：PTA反弹高度或将有限 PTA加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度有所提升叠加前期检修装置复产延期（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停 车检修5周、英力士、四川能投、独山能源1#检修中，逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中），供应端压力 有所缓解；需求相对较好，聚酯库存无压力。成本端PX供强需弱（国内外装置提负，上海石化 （600688）重启后提负），近期有望跟随原油回调。TA12 ...

PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2025/11/26 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 作者：刘思琪 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 从业资格证号：F3083559 交易咨询证号：Z0016260 邮箱：liusiqi@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | PTA年底前主流供应商检修偏高，需求季节性走弱但聚酯有支撑，11-12月平衡偏紧，短期供需不 | | | | 差，基差企稳，短期关注俄乌和平进展，回调后低买，逢低做扩加工费。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 近端面临季节性累库压力，关注5-9月差逢低正套机会。 | | 现货 | 谨慎偏强 | PTA现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强。现货在01-35附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4600~4640附 | | | | 近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | PX随着PTA检修增加，近端略转松，预期和格局不差，歧化和重整装置有检修，PXN估值不低。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏强 | PTA11-12月计划检修不低，英力士、能投、独山1 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-28 美湾芳烃价格回落，聚酯支撑仍强 市场要闻与数据 1、美湾芳烃价格大幅回落 2、聚酯支撑仍强。截至本周四，国内大陆地区聚酯负荷在91.6%附近。 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，Q3以来中东、拉美以及俄罗斯的石油供应出现大幅增长，基本面对油 价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在，需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN271美元/吨(环比变动+6.25美元/吨）。随着市场对亚美芳烃套利炒作以及印度BIS解除, 近期PXN走扩。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位， 海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注 近期汽油市场强劲下的调油分流。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -36元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费194元/吨（环比变动-7元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费255元/吨（环比变动-9元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯负 荷上游支撑，PTA供 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-28） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 前景，玻璃需求整体偏弱，企业库存连续增加。按照目 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 前的供需水平，玻璃日熔量要在年底前降到 15.4 万吨 | | | | | 左右的水平才能解决全产业链过剩的矛盾，后续向上高 | | | | | 度能否继续打开就要看冷修的进度。关注宏观以及产线 | | | | | 冷修情况能否给市场带来止跌企稳契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录-0.05%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录 0.02%，中证 500 股指收录-0.20%， | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 中证 1000 股指收录 0.12%。造纸、精细化工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，工程机械、互联网板块呈现资金净流出。 | | | | | 国务院总理李强主持召开国务 ...

·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 05 09 05 09 01 05 01 01 0d 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2023- 02 09 01 02 0d 01 05 09 01 -800 免责声 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The downstream real estate sector shows a slight recovery, while the service industry's domestic flight frequency experiences a minor decline [1][3]. - Upstream nickel and egg prices rise, while international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. Mid - stream PX, urea, and PTA prices fall, power plant coal consumption is at a low level, and asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: At the National Development and Reform Commission's November press conference on November 27, the commission responded to market hot - spot issues such as humanoid robots and the expansion of infrastructure REITs project issuance. It aims to prevent high - repetition humanoid robot products from flooding the market and promote the healthy and standardized development of the embodied intelligence industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. This is an important measure to improve the universal medical insurance system [1]. B. Industry Data - **Upstream**: - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices rise slightly, with the spot price on November 27 at 119,366.7 yuan/ton, a 1.98% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recover, with the spot price on November 27 at 6.4 yuan/kg, a 2.74% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Energy**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. On November 27, the spot price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, a 1.33% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 62.5 dollars/barrel, a 1.53% year - on - year decrease; and the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 4,084 yuan/ton, a 2.34% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: PX, urea, and PTA prices fall. On November 27, the spot price of PTA is 4,628.3 yuan/ton, a 0.61% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,980 yuan/ton, a 0.26% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Energy**: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities rise slightly [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreases slightly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]