来源：华尔街见闻 1月8日，经国务院批准，中国石化集团公司与中国航油集团公司实施重组。据业内人士分析，这种"强 强联手"有利于增强我国航空燃料产业国际竞争力，系统性提升航煤供应韧性、产业效率及低碳转型能 力。 此前，作为中国航油集团旗下海外上市平台的中航油新加坡已于2025年10月30日发布公告，披露其控股 股东正与另一家企业集团推进重组规划。 重组后，新实体将充分发挥"炼化一体化"与"终端网络全覆盖"的协同优势，通过减少中间环节、优化物 流体系以降低整体供应成本，从而为我国航空业的能源安全提供更坚实的保障。 从战略布局看，此次整合优势集中于两大关键领域：提升传统航油产业链的国际竞争力与引领可持续航 空燃料（SAF）产业的系统发展。 产业链整合降低供应成本 此次重组将有效整合中国石化的规模化炼化能力与中国航油的航油储备及终端加注网络优势，通过构建 一体化的"资源-炼化-物流-机场"产业链，减少中间环节，系统性保障我国航空业的能源安全。 当前，国际航空燃料市场主要由壳牌等一体化巨头主导，其凭借贯穿全产业链的规模、基础设施与全球 网络，形成了显著竞争优势。相比之下，此前我国航空燃料产业在生产、销售与机场加注等环节 ...

在政策持续发力与国际原油价格下行的双重利好加持下，国内大炼化市场正逐步走出调整周期，市场集 中度与景气度同步提升。 以恒力石化、荣盛石化、恒逸石化、东方盛虹为代表的民营炼化四巨头，2025年三季度以来整体盈利能 力稳步回升。从头部企业的经营情况来看，炼化一体化的规模与产业链优势，成为民营炼化龙头抵御市 场波动的关键因素，不仅推动企业毛利率改善，而且助力行业整体景气度稳步上行。 "深耕炼化一体化赛道，是民营四大龙头打造核心竞争力的关键所在。"银河期货高级研究员赵若晨对期 货日报记者表示，具体而言，恒力石化已完成"原油—PX—PTA—聚酯"全产业链布局，实现各环节协同 增效；荣盛石化通过控股浙江石化，手握全球单体规模领先的炼化项目，该项目具备年加工4000万吨原 油、880万吨PX及420万吨乙烯的产能；东方盛虹积极推进"1+N"战略，在巩固炼化主业的同时，向新能 源、新材料领域延伸，丰富产品矩阵；恒逸石化依托文莱炼化项目，构建起境内外产业协同格局，有效 对冲区域市场风险。 此外，成本端压力的缓解，为企业盈利修复提供了重要助力。2025年三季度，国际原油价格走势整体平 稳，布伦特原油期货平均价格为68.17美元/ ...

Summary of Rongsheng Petrochemical Conference Call Company Overview - Rongsheng Petrochemical is a leading integrated enterprise in the polyester industry chain, with a refining and chemical integration project capacity of 40 million tons, covering crude oil processing, PX, and ethylene production [2][3] - The company's business focuses on the polyester industry chain, including PX aromatics, PTA, polyester filament, and bottle-grade PET, as well as olefin products and refined oil [2][3] Revenue and Profit Composition - The revenue and profit of Rongsheng Petrochemical primarily come from chemicals, refined oil, PTA, and polyester films, with chemicals and refining being dominant [4] - The refined oil segment is relatively stable, while the chemical segment experiences cyclical profit fluctuations. PTA profits have been declining since 2021, but recent price differentials are gradually recovering [4] Future Growth and Capacity Expansion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a high-quality development phase, expanding upstream to PTA and achieving a 40 million tons refining integration project [2][5] - New capacities are expected to gradually come online in 2026 and 2027, focusing on high-end new materials and high-performance resins [5] - The company has a strategic partnership with Saudi Aramco, which holds a 10% stake and commits to supplying 24 million tons of high-quality crude oil annually [5] Industry Dynamics and Policy Changes - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have issued a "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry," which aims to control new refining capacity and monitor the scale of new ethylene and PX capacities [6] - The PX market has seen capacity increases since 2023, but new investments are limited in the next two years, with downstream PTA and end-use bottle and filament demand growing at a compound rate of 5% to 6% [7] PTA and Polyester Market Outlook - PTA accounts for 99.5% of PX demand and is a crucial intermediate product. The production of PTA has been increasing, but no new investments are planned after 2026, indicating the end of the expansion cycle [8][9] - The polyester bottle market has shown stable growth, with exports increasing from 2.68 million tons in 2018 to 5.8 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [10] - The polyester filament market is expected to see price recovery due to ongoing demand and production adjustments by leading companies [11] Profitability Forecast - Future revenue projections for Rongsheng Petrochemical are estimated at CNY 304.5 billion, CNY 322.3 billion, and CNY 330.5 billion over the next three years, with corresponding net profits of CNY 1.38 billion, CNY 2.27 billion, and CNY 2.57 billion [18] - The company maintains a favorable valuation outlook, with target prices indicating a potential upside of nearly 20% from current levels [19] Additional Insights - The domestic refining industry is approaching a policy threshold of 1 billion tons, leading to the accelerated elimination of small-scale refineries and a concentration on large-scale integrated projects [13] - The increase in sulfur prices has positively impacted Rongsheng Petrochemical's profitability, with significant margins expected from sulfur production [17]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has rebounded strongly, reaching a historical high after a one-day pullback, with key stocks like Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and New Fengming increasing by 7%, 5.99%, and 5.4% respectively [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) saw its underlying index rise by 1.63%, continuing to set historical highs, with a cumulative increase of 12% over the past 10 days [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF received a net subscription of 22.5 million units during the day, with a total net inflow of 55.25 million yuan over the last 10 days [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure for raw material industries like steel and petrochemicals [1] - By 2026, there is no clear new PX production capacity expected domestically, which may lead to a tight balance in PX supply and demand both domestically and internationally, suggesting sustained high industry prosperity [1] - Integrated refining leaders with PX production capacity are expected to benefit from the macroeconomic stimulus effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will gradually manifest [1] Group 3 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks a segmented chemical index, with over 93% of its portfolio in three primary industries: basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electric power equipment [1] - The ETF has a full industry chain layout in the chemical sector, selecting 50 constituent stocks that cover both leading companies and quality small and medium enterprises, positioning itself to capture the development dividends of the chemical industry [1][3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector rebounded strongly, reaching a historical high, with companies like Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Xin Fengming seeing increases of 7%, 5.99%, and 5.4% respectively [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) saw its underlying index rise by 1.63%, marking a historical high, and has accumulated a 12% increase over the past 10 days [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF experienced a net subscription of 22.5 million units in a single day, with a total net inflow of 55.25 million yuan over the last 10 days [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks a specialized chemical index, with over 93% of its holdings in basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electric power equipment [2] - The ETF includes 50 selected constituent stocks, featuring leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yalake Co., as well as high-quality small and medium enterprises across various segments of the chemical industry [2] - The ETF covers the entire chemical industry chain, including phosphorous chemicals, fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, and new energy materials, allowing it to capture the overall development dividends of the chemical sector [2]

"产业园形成了央企、国企、民企、外企复合型投资格局，累计落户项目总投资超3000亿元。随着 中国石油广西石化120万吨/年乙烯装置、华谊钦州基地、恒逸钦州基地等一批重大项目建成投产，钦州 绿色石化产业迈入新发展阶段。"钦州市产业园区改革发展办公室主任唐艳发介绍，上海华谊集团打造 钦州化工新材料和泰国轮胎"双基地"，恒逸集团打造文莱炼化一体化和钦州化工化纤"双基地"，中伟集 团建设钦州锂电池前驱体和印尼资源开发"双基地"，初步探索形成了以钦州为支点的中国—东盟绿色石 化及新材料跨境产业链合作的新路径。 产业高质量发展离不开创新驱动。目前，钦州石化产业园已搭建广西低碳技术与绿色化工新材料实 验室、广西绿色化工新材料产业技术创新中心、钦州市绿色石化产业创新联盟等一批创新平台，正加快 申报建设国家级石化产业技术创新中心，以科技创新赋能产业绿色低碳升级。 12月16日，在广西钦州广源物资供应有限公司5万吨级码头，巴拿马籍外贸船舶"戴坦"轮汽笛长 鸣，船上满载的4100吨甲基叔丁基醚，是中国石油广西石化炼化一体化转型升级项目自10月投产以来的 首单出口货物。它的扬帆远航，标志着该项目生产的优质产品成功叩开国际市场大门。 ...

作为国家"十四五"重点工程，天津南港乙烯项目是环渤海地区炼化一体化标志性工程。该项目聚焦120万吨/年乙烯及下游高端新材料产业集群建 设，填补了北方高端石化产能缺口。此次首船乙烷顺利到港，标志着项目原料供应体系正式运转，为项目全面达产达效奠定了坚实基础。 作者：李帅、司瑶 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘阳】 14日下午，利比里亚籍"维斯塔"轮靠泊天津南港工业区新建码头。这艘船舶装载的3.1万吨乙烷，是天津南港乙烯项目迎来的首船进口原料。 ...

Group 1: Market Development and Product Launch - The company is currently in the market development phase for carbon capture fiber products, with ongoing construction of a new materials pilot base [1] - The 100,000 tons/year POE facility has been completed and is currently supplying samples to downstream photovoltaic industry clients, with smooth progress reported [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Risk Management - The company has diversified its raw material sources through "oil, coal, gas" strategies, enhancing cost control and risk management against cyclical fluctuations [2] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, with ongoing monitoring of the controlling shareholder's increase in holdings [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements and AI Integration - Significant achievements in digital transformation have been noted, with the establishment of an AI division aimed at deeply integrating AI into core business operations [2] - The company has been recognized for its advanced intelligent factories, contributing to a new paradigm in manufacturing transformation [2] Group 4: Future Capital Expenditure and Project Planning - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decline, with no new large-scale projects planned beyond current new materials projects [2] - The company is focusing on building a diversified industrial chain around new energy materials and high-performance materials [3]

[行业table专题报告 _reportdate ] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第1页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ➢ 炼化一体化是将石油炼制与化工生产通过工艺耦合、原料互供、能量 共享实现深度融合的产业模式，打破了传统炼油与化工独立运营的界 限，通过全链条资源优化配置，实现原油向成品油与高附加值化工品 的高效转化。这种模式并非简单的环节叠加，而是涵盖物质流、能量 流、信息流的系统性重构，例如将炼油产生的石脑油直接供给烯烃或 芳烃装置作为原料，减少中间储运成本。 ➢ 据《2024 年国内外油气行业发展报告》，"十五五"期间炼化行业将 加速兼并整合，以集群化、一体化、园区化的规模优势应对外部风 险。2030 年，全国炼厂平均规模达到 535 万吨/年，较 2024 年水平提 高 53 万吨/年；国内千万吨级炼厂占比达 60.7%，较 2024 年提高 4.7 个百分点；大连长兴岛、江苏连云港、浙江宁波、福建古雷、广东惠 州大亚湾等石化基地基本建成。 ➢ 炼化一体化的经济效益的提升来自规模效应、产品溢价与成本控制的 多重叠加。规模上，大型一体化 ...

Core Insights - The global PX production capacity is rapidly shifting towards Asia, particularly China, which now accounts for over 90% of the new capacity added globally, solidifying its position as the world's PX production center [2][3] - By 2024, East Asia's PX capacity will represent 69.3% of the global total, with Southeast Asia contributing an additional 9.2%, leading to nearly 80% of global capacity being concentrated in Asia [2] - China's PX capacity reached 43.73 million tons by the end of 2023, with projections indicating it could approach 47 million tons by 2026, representing about 55% of global capacity [2] Industry Dynamics - The PX market is undergoing a profound transformation due to the rapid expansion of production capacity and relatively weak demand, particularly in the downstream PTA sector, which is experiencing oversupply [4][6] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a 10-year low, leading to reduced demand for PX and a price correction in the PX market [4][6] - The PX price (CFR China) averaged $831.1 per ton from early 2025 to November 25, reflecting a decline of 15.06% year-on-year compared to 2024 and a 20.25% drop compared to 2023 [6] Future Outlook - The global PX market is expected to seek rebalancing as PTA capacity expansion slows, leading to a shift in profits towards upstream raw materials like PX [7] - The competitive landscape in the polyester supply chain will intensify, with companies needing to enhance their "refining and chemical integration" models to maintain an edge [10] - China's role as a net exporter of PX is becoming more pronounced, with a structural shift in trade patterns as domestic production increases [8][10] Trade Patterns - Historically, PX trade in Asia involved exports from traditional producers like South Korea and Japan to China, but this trend is changing as China moves towards becoming a net exporter [8] - In the first ten months of 2025, China's PX imports reached 7.8569 million tons, a 3.85% increase from 2024, indicating a shift from reliance on imports to meeting marginal demand from new PTA capacity [8][10]