荣盛石化 20250825 摘要 2025 年二季度荣盛石化营收 737 亿元，归母净利润 0.14 亿元，扣非 归母净利润 1.37 亿元。炼化板块盈利 0.9 亿元，其中浙石化盈利 8.6 亿 元，中京亏损 3.47 亿元。PTA 瓶片板块盈利约 400 万元，聚酯化纤薄 膜板块亏损约 6,000 万元。 浙石化上半年原油加工量约 2,100 多万吨，炼油负荷率接近 110%。全 年计划按照 4,300~4,400 万吨的原油加工规模进行。上半年成品油产 量约 790 万吨，其中出口 100 万吨、内销 690 多万吨。 上半年国际油价震荡下行，一季度布伦特原油均价为 75 美元/桶，二季 度为 67 美元/桶。国内煤炭价格也呈下行趋势。油价下跌降低了原油采 购成本，以浙石化年加工 4,000 万吨原油规模测算，油价中枢每下行 10 美元/桶，年均可节省原油采购成本超 200 亿元。 公司优化投资结构，降低高性能树脂、高端新材料等项目资本开支，挖 掘国际合作机会。控股股东启动第三期增持计划，体现管理层对公司长 期价值的认可。 Q&A 公司在应对行业调整方面采取了哪些措施？ 面对行业调整，公司积极主动应变。 ...

上证报中国证券网讯 8月23日，荣盛石化发布2025年半年度报告。报告期内，公司资产总额突破3840.11亿元，实现营业收入1486.29亿元，归母净利润6.02亿元，总体经营状况保持稳健。 据公告显示，荣盛石化在今年7月18日完成了第一期回购股份1.36亿股的注销，占本次注销前公司总股本的1.3440%，累计耗资达19.98亿元。资料显示，2022-2024年，荣盛石化开展了三期 与此同时，荣盛石化控股股东浙江荣盛控股集团有限公司也频频以"真金白银"表达对公司未来发展的坚定信心。据统计，自2024年1月至2025年2月，荣盛石化控股股东已连续实施两期增持，累 今年上半年，在大手笔实施回购注销以及增持的背后，除了多年积累的产能布局、技术优势和品牌影响力作为底气外，还有荣盛石化对行业整体发展趋势的看好。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 公司多措并举，响应政策要求，包括优化投资结构，并依托全球特大型炼化一体化优势，持续挖潜增效，坚持创新和技术进步，实现产品的高端化、差异化，规避陷入"内卷"式竞争困境。此外 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布2025年半年度报告，2025年上半年公司实现营业收入559.6亿元，同比-13.6%；实现归母净利润 2.3亿元，同比-47.3%。其中Q2单季度公司实现营收287.9亿元，同比-13.0%，环比+6.0%；实现归母净利 润1.75亿元，同比+953.9%，环比+240.2%。 点评： 炼油、长丝价差改善，2025年Q2业绩回暖 2025年Q2，布伦特原油均价66.76美元/桶，同比-22%，环比-11%；石脑油裂解价差-50美元/吨，同比+19 美元/吨，环比+20美元/吨；炼油价差1111元/吨，同比+420元/吨，环比+158元/吨；PX价差-389元/吨，同 比-821元/吨，环比+175元/吨；PT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by improved refining and polyester filament price spreads [4][7] - The company is accelerating its layout of high-value differentiated products, with a focus on biodegradable fibers and other high-margin products, positioning itself for future growth [6][7] - The Brunei refining project is expected to benefit from the expanding supply-demand gap in the Southeast Asian refined oil market, enhancing the company's competitive advantage [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 55.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 28.79 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year but up 6.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 953.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 240.2% [3][4] Market Conditions - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 was $66.76 per barrel, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. The price spread for refining improved significantly, indicating a recovery in the company's performance despite a challenging market environment [4] Growth Prospects - The company has a total polyester production capacity of 13.25 million tons per year, with a focus on differentiated products. The proportion of differentiated fiber production has increased to 27%, leading the industry [6] - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is projected to face a supply-demand gap of 68 million tons by 2026, which the company is well-positioned to exploit through its Brunei refining project [5][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the declining industry outlook, with expected net profits of 580 million yuan, 764 million yuan, and 965 million yuan respectively. The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's future growth potential [7][8]

华锦股份是国内炼化一体化企业，主营业务包括石油化工及化学肥料。公司已形成炼油、聚烯烃、 ABS、偏三甲苯等产业链布局，属于石油行业板块。 公司最新披露的2025年半年度报告显示，上半年实现营业收入201.04亿元，同比下降5.01%；归属于上 市公司股东的净利润亏损9.89亿元，较去年同期扩大33.15%。公司表示，业绩下滑主要受国际油价震荡 下行、国内产能持续释放、下游需求不及预期以及新能源汽车替代加速等因素影响。 数据显示，8月14日主力资金净流出254.36万元，近五日主力资金累计净流出888.88万元。 截至2025年8月14日收盘，华锦股份股价报5.30元，较前一交易日下跌3.28%。当日成交量为300829手， 成交金额达1.61亿元，股价波动区间为5.27元至5.49元。 风险提示：投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 来源:金融界 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil and gas industry is experiencing structural changes, shifting from fuel-based refining to chemical-based refining due to declining demand for traditional fuel products and the push for renewable energy [2] - The government is implementing policies to limit the growth of domestic refining capacity and accelerate the elimination of outdated small refining units, while promoting the replacement of advanced low-emission new capacities [2] - Leading refining companies are expected to enhance their product structure by increasing the yield of chemical raw materials like propylene and ethylene, which will reduce carbon emissions and improve product value [2] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index accounted for 65.78% of the index, with major companies including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC [3] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2][3] - The oil and gas ETF closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, indicating a positive market trend with a recent increase of 0.68% [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the oil demand and refining sector, highlighting the significant changes in consumption patterns and the implications for investment strategies Group 1: Oil Demand Structure - Oil has a wide range of applications, with fuel remaining the primary demand source, accounting for approximately 80% of downstream applications [12] - The growth rate of global oil consumption is strongly correlated with GDP growth, with the Asia-Pacific region being the main consumer, expected to account for 38% of global oil consumption by 2024 [1][28] Group 2: Refining Product Consumption - The global refining product structure is shifting towards lighter components, with a significant decline in the share of heavy products like residual fuel oil and kerosene [2] - The United States remains the largest consumer of oil, with gasoline consumption accounting for nearly half of its refining product consumption [31] - China's refining product consumption has rapidly increased, with other oil products surpassing gasoline and distillate fuel oil to become the largest refining product [39] Group 3: Refinery Capacity and Production - There is a global oversupply of refining capacity, with refinery utilization rates around 80%, and a projected decline to 79.9% in 2024 [3] - India is expected to be a key player in future oil consumption and refining demand growth, with refinery utilization rates consistently exceeding 100% [3][49] Group 4: Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - Major energy agencies predict a surplus in global oil supply in the short to medium term, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [57] - EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.81 million barrels per day in 2025, while demand growth is expected to be only 0.80 million barrels per day [58]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term demand growth for polyester filament is relatively stable, with the peak of industry production capacity expansion having passed, leading to a more orderly supply in the future under the self-discipline of leading companies. The current price spread of polyester filament remains at a historically low level, indicating potential for upward correction [1] Supply - The capacity growth of polyester filament is gradually slowing, with the market share of leading companies increasing. The industry saw significant capacity expansion in recent years, particularly among leading enterprises, with the CR4 reaching 60.2% in 2024, an increase of 18.3 percentage points since 2019. The actual capacity is expected to decline for the first time in 2024, indicating a more orderly supply increase in the future [2] Demand - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The export volume of polyester filament is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2017 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in the first half of 2025. The demand is anticipated to strengthen seasonally as the peak season begins in August [3] Cost - The supply and demand outlook for raw materials is weak, with the prices of PX and PTA closely linked to oil prices. The import dependence of PX is expected to decrease from 60.8% in 2018 to 20.0% in 2024, while PTA is shifting from net importer to net exporter. Although oil prices are supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties, the expectation of global oil inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2025 may limit upward price movement [4] Profitability - The polyester filament industry has a solid foundation of self-discipline, with leading companies implementing measures such as "production limits to maintain prices" and "coordinated operating rates" since May 2024. The price spread of polyester filament has rebounded from the lows of 2023, demonstrating strong profitability resilience, especially amid complex international trade conditions [5] Investment Targets - Companies to watch include Xin Fengming (603225.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) [6]

Global Overview - Global propylene capacity is projected to grow from 125 million tons in 2017 to 177 million tons by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.1% [1] - Global propylene production is expected to increase from 103 million tons to 134 million tons during the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9% [1] - Northeast Asia is the largest production region, accounting for 51.5% of global capacity, followed by North America (14.0%) and Western Europe (9.0%) [1] China's Propylene Industry - China is a significant global propylene producer, with a projected capacity of 69.73 million tons and a production of 53.41 million tons by 2024 [2] - The average annual growth rate of propylene capacity in China from 2014 to 2024 is 12.8% due to the increase in coal/methanol-to-propylene and propane dehydrogenation facilities [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate in China's propylene industry is expected to be 76.6% in 2024, down from over 90% prior to 2014 [2] Production Techniques - Traditional oil-based processes like catalytic cracking and steam cracking remain the dominant methods for propylene production in China [2] - By 2024, steam cracking will account for 33.7% of production capacity, while propane dehydrogenation will represent 32.3% [2] Regional Production Distribution - Propylene production in China is concentrated in East and North China, which account for 31.1% and 20.3% of total production, respectively [3] - The top five provinces for propylene production are Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Ningxia, collectively accounting for 58.4% of national output [3] Market Competition - The Chinese propylene industry is competitive, with over 100 production companies; the top 10 companies hold 56.4% of the total capacity [3] - State-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina are the primary producers, but there is a trend towards diversification with private companies entering the market [3] Consumption Trends - China is the largest consumer of propylene globally, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons in 2024 [4] - The domestic supply is expected to be approximately 53.41 million tons, with imports at 2.02 million tons and exports at 0.07 million tons [4] - The average annual growth rate of domestic propylene consumption from 2014 to 2024 is about 9.9% [4] Downstream Demand - The demand for propylene derivatives has been increasing, with polypropylene accounting for 67.7% of consumption in 2024 [5] - Other derivatives like epoxy propane and acrylonitrile are also seeing significant growth, with production rates increasing substantially from 2014 to 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The successful trial production of the 200,000 tons/year mixed plastic waste resource utilization project by Dongyue Chemical in Guangdong marks a significant advancement in the chemical recycling of waste plastics, establishing a new industrial path for high-value and harmless utilization of waste plastics [1][9]. Industry Development - The establishment of the world's first industrialized waste plastic recycling facility in Guangdong exemplifies the province's efforts to extend the chemical product chain in the petrochemical industry [2][4]. - The petrochemical industry in Guangdong is undergoing a transformation from a focus on refining to driving new chemical materials, with integrated refining and chemical production becoming a core strategy for provinces competing for industrial dominance [3][10]. Market Dynamics - Major petrochemical companies are increasingly investing in Guangdong, enhancing the completeness of the petrochemical industry chain, which is characterized by large-scale projects and significant infrastructure investments [3][5]. - Guangdong aims to exceed a petrochemical industry scale of 2 trillion yuan by 2025, with a focus on creating a leading and world-class green petrochemical industry cluster [6][10]. Technological Innovation - The Dongyue Chemical project utilizes a unique "one-step" process for deep catalytic cracking of mixed waste plastics, achieving a product yield of over 92% without the need for complex sorting of low-value plastics [9][12]. - The project is positioned as a key initiative in the green chemical sector, contributing to sustainable development and the dual carbon strategy [9][13]. Strategic Positioning - Guangdong's petrochemical industry is characterized by a highly concentrated and integrated layout, with a strategic focus on developing a circular economy that connects upstream raw materials with downstream processing [7][13]. - The province's unique geographical advantages and advanced technological equipment position it as a central hub for the global chemical industry transition [10][14]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face challenges such as the need for increased self-sufficiency in high-end chemical materials and the pressure to reduce oil output while increasing the production of high-end chemical products [11][14]. - The focus will be on accelerating the transformation of refining and chemical integration, responding to the growing market demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles [11][13].