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美银证券:料铝业公司享电力成本优势 升中国宏桥(01378)及中国铝业(02600)盈测及目标价
智通财经网· 2025-11-11 05:35
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China's aluminum industry has a significant cost advantage due to lower electricity prices compared to India, the US, and Europe, which could lead to a production cost reduction of 1,200 to 3,600 RMB per ton [1] Group 1: Cost Advantage - China's electricity prices are approximately 20% lower than India's and 30% to 60% lower than those in the US and Europe, providing a substantial cost advantage for Chinese aluminum producers [1] - The report anticipates that the cost advantage will expand in the coming years as overseas markets face electricity shortages and rising prices, while China's electricity supply remains sufficient [1] Group 2: Production and Profitability Outlook - Current aluminum supply in China has reached a limit of 45 million tons, which is expected to support global aluminum prices due to high-cost production elsewhere [1] - The report predicts that this situation will drive profit margins for Chinese aluminum companies to expand further between 2025 and 2027 [1] Group 3: Company Forecasts - Bank of America Securities has raised its profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) for 2026 to 2030 by 5% to 14%, increasing the target price from 35 HKD to 38 HKD, while reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] - The profit forecast for China Aluminum (02600) has been increased by 1% and 27% for the next two years, with the target price raised from 10 HKD to 11.9 HKD, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The aluminum sector is viewed as attractive in the context of developments in artificial intelligence and data centers [1]
大行评级丨美银:中国铝业公司在电力成本上有优势 上调中国宏桥和中国铝业目标价
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-11 02:44
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China Aluminum Corporation has a significant cost advantage in electricity, with production costs potentially lower by 1,200 to 3,600 RMB per ton compared to global competitors due to lower electricity prices in China [1] Group 1: Cost Advantages - China's electricity prices are approximately 20% lower than India's and 30% to 60% lower than those in the US and Europe, providing a competitive edge for Chinese aluminum producers [1] - The report anticipates that the cost advantage will expand in the coming years as overseas markets face electricity shortages and rising prices, while China's electricity supply remains sufficient [1] Group 2: Supply and Profitability Outlook - Current aluminum supply in China has reached a limit of 45 million tons, which is expected to support global aluminum prices and enhance profit margins for Chinese companies from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Bank of America Securities has raised its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2026 to 2030 by 5% to 14%, increasing the target price from 35 HKD to 38 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The profit forecasts for China Aluminum have been adjusted upward by 1% and 27% for the next two years, with the target price increased from 10 HKD to 11.9 HKD, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Industry Valuation - The aluminum sector is viewed as attractive in terms of valuation, particularly in the context of developments in artificial intelligence and data centers [1]