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国防军工:军工本周观点:关注军贸及出口链-20251103
Huafu Securities· 2025-11-03 05:56
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][60]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade and export chains, highlighting the recent release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" by the Central Committee, which stresses the need for a modernized national security system and the high-quality advancement of national defense and military modernization [2][41]. - The report notes a significant increase in demand for the military industry expected in 2026, driven by multiple catalysts including the 15th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goals of the military [3][42]. - The current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the military industry is 70.88, indicating a high configuration value at this time, especially with the anticipated strong recovery in the industry fundamentals by 2025 [3][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 0.07% from October 27 to October 31, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43%, resulting in an outperformance of 0.36 percentage points [8][13]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has risen by 16.39%, compared to a 17.94% increase in the CSI 300 index, indicating a relative underperformance of -1.55 percentage points [15][21]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the military industry, including: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, Ligong Navigation, Baiao Intelligent, Great Wall Military Industry, and Zhongbing Hongjian [3][42]. 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology [7][42]. 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense [7][42]. 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co [7][42]. 5. Unmanned & Anti-Unmanned: Zongheng Co, Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang [7][42]. 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics [7][42]. 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [7][42]. 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co, Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [7][42]. 3. Funding and Valuation - There was a net outflow of 1.299 billion yuan from military ETFs during the week, indicating a decrease in passive fund size and share [25][32]. - However, leveraged funds saw an increase in net inflow, suggesting that risk capital is beginning to increase its allocation to the military sector [42][32]. - The report indicates that the military sector remains attractive for investment, with a high configuration value due to the expected recovery in demand [3][42].