1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas premiums have further strengthened, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China continues to expand, and the overseas selling and delivery profit begins to appear. The domestic surplus nature remains unchanged, but the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $299.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,890 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,010 yuan per ton and closed at 22,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,274 lots, and the position was 132,692 lots. The highest price was 22,030 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,930 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Overseas premiums are strengthening, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China is expanding, and the overseas selling and delivery profit appears. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC continues to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive, the processing fee may also be adjusted downwards. The domestic surplus remains, but the inventory accumulation may be less than expected. The smelting comprehensive profit is narrowing, and if the situation continues or the sulfuric acid price drops, the smelting enthusiasm will be hit, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has changed. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]