Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Gold and Zinc Industry**: The records focus on the gold and zinc markets, highlighting significant changes in consumption patterns and price forecasts for both commodities. Key Insights on Gold Market - **Consumption Shift**: In 2025, China's gold consumption structure underwent a milestone change, with gold bars and coins consumption (501.238 tons, +35.14%) surpassing jewelry consumption (363.836 tons, -31.6%), indicating a shift from consumption to investment dominance in the market [4][1]. - **Price Forecast**: Short-term gold prices are expected to be pressured by delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a strong dollar, with COMEX gold prices projected to fluctuate between $4,200 and $5,200 per ounce. Long-term support is anticipated from U.S. debt expansion and strong global central bank gold purchases (700-850 tons annually) [6][1]. - **Production and Import Data**: In 2025, domestic gold production was 381.339 tons (+1.09%), and imported gold was 170.681 tons (+8.8%). Total consumption was 950.096 tons (-3.57%) [4][1]. Key Insights on Zinc Market - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The global refined zinc market is expected to face a surplus in 2026, with optimistic projections indicating a surplus of 240,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase by approximately 170,000 tons, primarily from the Wanyang project (+100,000 tons) and the Huoshaoyun project [1][9]. - **Price Trends**: Zinc prices are projected to decline, with expectations for Shanghai zinc prices to range between 21,000 and 25,000 RMB/ton in 2026. In April, prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and demand pressures [2][19]. - **Downstream Consumption Changes**: The traditional drivers for zinc consumption are weakening, with the share of galvanized consumption expected to drop from 65% to 55% due to declining real estate investment and new construction [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Zinc Smelting Challenges**: The zinc smelting sector is facing dual pressures from high overseas electricity prices and low domestic processing fees (TC), with smelting profits heavily reliant on by-product sulfuric acid prices, which have increased by 23.46% year-to-date [1][11]. - **Market Inventory Levels**: As of March 2026, domestic zinc inventories are at 260,000 tons, with significant increases in London zinc inventories as well, indicating a potential oversupply situation [18][19]. - **Geopolitical and Economic Influences**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. monetary policy are influencing both gold and zinc prices, with expectations of continued volatility in the markets [6][8][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the gold and zinc markets, their current dynamics, and future outlooks.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a cautious and bullish stance for unilateral trading and a neutral stance for arbitrage [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Downstream procurement enthusiasm has started to increase, and the acceptance of the spot market has improved due to the decline in absolute prices, leading to an increase in point - price procurement enthusiasm and a slight repair of spot discounts. However, social inventories are still in a state of accumulation, and downstream consumption is starting to recover. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point in the later stage. The import concentrate TC is still in a slight decline, the import window is currently closed, and domestic smelting profit is acceptable after adding by - products, resulting in high smelting enthusiasm and high rigid demand for concentrates. Coupled with freight disturbances, the concentrate end supports the zinc price. Under the background of high overseas energy costs, the probability of smelting复产 is still low even with rich by - product benefits. In the long run, the overseas consumption is still optimistic without the background of recession trading [1][5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - The LME zinc spot premium is -$42.63 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 280 yuan/ton to 23,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of -110 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 23,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of -80 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 280 yuan/ton to 23,810 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of -100 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On March 16, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,205 yuan/ton, closed at 23,905 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 108,986 lots, and the position was 77,317 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,255 yuan/ton, and the lowest price reached 23,835 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 275,800 tons, a change of 7,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 97,500 tons, a change of -400 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects zinc futures in Shanghai to fluctuate and adjust, with the price likely to stay between 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton. The upward momentum is insufficient [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 24650 yuan/ton, up 65 from the previous period. The 03 - 04 contract spread is -20 yuan/ton, up 35 [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3418 dollars/ton, up 20. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 193888 lots, up 649 [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4214 lots, up 2555. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 70689 tons (weekly), up 5535. The LME inventory is 105250 tons (daily), down 1500 [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 24480 yuan/ton, up 20. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24400 yuan/ton, up 240 [3] - The basis of the main zinc contract is -170 yuan/ton, down 45. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is -17.8 dollars/ton, up 1.75 [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21340 yuan/ton, up 10. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35700 tons (monthly), down 14700. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7700 tons (monthly), down 4900 [3] - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0627 million tons, down 11900. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 675000 tons, up 21000 [3] - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 462600 tons, down 53900 [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 8760.85 tons, down 9469.07. The refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 27266.66 tons, down 15548.89 [3] - The zinc social inventory is 128000 tons (weekly), up 9500 [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, up 20000. The sales volume of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, down 60000 [3] - The new housing construction area (monthly) is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million. The housing completion area (monthly) is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million [3] - The automobile production (monthly) is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107500. The air - conditioner production (monthly) is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45 [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 38.46% (daily), down 0.09. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.2% (daily), up 0.02 [3] Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US January non - farm payrolls report was strong, pushing back the market's expectation of the first interest - rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3] - In the fundamental aspect, the zinc ore imports in China are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore purchases has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to be restricted [3] - The LME zinc price has corrected recently, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning into the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors also weakening, while policies in the automobile and other fields bring some bright spots [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: neutral [5] - Arbitrage: neutral [5] Core View of the Report - Actual consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, with a significant decline in downstream开工, but the seasonal performance is in line with previous years without additional negative impacts. The zinc price's absolute decline risk has been released, and the depth of the off - season correction may be limited. The long - term expectations for consumption and the macro - economy remain positive [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$21.56 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,640 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,610 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,630 yuan/ton and closed at 24,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 122,879 lots, and the position was 63,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,745 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,420 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 148,500 tons, a change of 14,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,925 tons, a change of -675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The actual consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and downstream开工 has significantly declined, but the seasonal performance is in line with previous years. In the mining sector, domestic mines and smelters have entered the production reduction and maintenance cycle, the procurement demand of smelters has declined, and the trading of imported ores is also scarce, with TC remaining stable. In the smelting sector, although the average daily output in February is expected to increase month - on - month, the actual output is likely to fall short of expectations. Some smelters are still facing losses despite the continuous strengthening of sulfuric acid prices, and the supply pressure is not large. Although the social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, the absolute value of inventory is not high. After the end of the expected trading by the Fed Chairman, the risk of a decline in the absolute zinc price has been released, and the depth of the off - season correction may be limited. It is advisable to avoid risks in the short term as the long holiday approaches, while the long - term expectations for consumption and the macro - economy remain positive [4] Strategy - Unilateral: neutral [5] - Arbitrage: neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream has entered the holiday period, with a decline in the output of downstream processed products. The spot market trading is sluggish due to the stop of price decline and the price - holding of traders, and the spot discount continues to widen. However, this year's seasonal off - season is in sync with previous years, and the previous price increase has no negative feedback on downstream consumption. Social inventories have entered the early stage of accumulation, with a relatively slow accumulation rate, and the peak inventory is expected to be 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of zinc ore continues to decline, and it is difficult to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products continue to rise, the comprehensive smelting still faces some losses, and the pressure of insufficient zinc ingot supply is not obvious. In the long term, consumption and macro factors are still optimistic [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$25.89 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 24,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 24,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 24,850 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 24,800 yuan/ton and closed at 24,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 208,461 lots, and the position was 79,219 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,010 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,720 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions of SMM was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,200 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral and arbitrage strategies are both rated as neutral [5] Core Views - Consumption has entered the off - season, and the decline in absolute prices has limited stimulation for downstream procurement. The discounts in East and South China have been slightly repaired, but the discount in Tianjin has continued to widen. Social inventories have started to accumulate slowly, and the absolute inventory level is still relatively low compared to previous years [4] - The import TC of zinc ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new - year Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, smelting still faces some losses, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to be under pressure. Long - term prospects for consumption and macro factors remain positive [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is -$8.41 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 24,970 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 24,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On February 2, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,735 yuan/ton and closed at 24,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,805 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 446,017 lots, and the open interest was 91,209 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,245 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,100 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that zinc prices are expected to remain strong due to low processing fees for zinc concentrate and limited production, despite some pressure from recent adjustments in trading rules [1][2] - Overnight, London zinc prices increased by 0.51%, closing at $3,376 per ton, with a trading volume of 14,032 lots, reflecting a rise in market activity [1] - The Shanghai zinc market also showed strength, with the main contract closing at 25,320 yuan per ton, up 0.42%, indicating a positive trend in domestic prices [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, which has led to a slight rebound in the US dollar, although this has had a limited impact on zinc prices [1] - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain low, causing smelting profits to fall below cost levels, which has constrained production and tightened supply, thereby supporting zinc prices [2] - Demand for zinc is expected to weaken as the seasonal slowdown approaches the Chinese New Year, but some traders are still actively purchasing low-priced sources, stabilizing transactions [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side pressure is prominent, and the inventory accumulation trend in China is expected to continue, even during the peak consumption season. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non-ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$26.43/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 24,760 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 24,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 24,690 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -35 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,280 yuan/ton, closed at 24,950 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 255,674 lots, and the open interest was 118,946 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,280 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,710 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 27, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 116,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 110,550 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day. [3]