Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects zinc futures in Shanghai to fluctuate and adjust, with the price likely to stay between 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton. The upward momentum is insufficient [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 24650 yuan/ton, up 65 from the previous period. The 03 - 04 contract spread is -20 yuan/ton, up 35 [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3418 dollars/ton, up 20. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 193888 lots, up 649 [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4214 lots, up 2555. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 70689 tons (weekly), up 5535. The LME inventory is 105250 tons (daily), down 1500 [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 24480 yuan/ton, up 20. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24400 yuan/ton, up 240 [3] - The basis of the main zinc contract is -170 yuan/ton, down 45. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is -17.8 dollars/ton, up 1.75 [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21340 yuan/ton, up 10. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35700 tons (monthly), down 14700. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7700 tons (monthly), down 4900 [3] - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0627 million tons, down 11900. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 675000 tons, up 21000 [3] - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 462600 tons, down 53900 [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 8760.85 tons, down 9469.07. The refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 27266.66 tons, down 15548.89 [3] - The zinc social inventory is 128000 tons (weekly), up 9500 [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, up 20000. The sales volume of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, down 60000 [3] - The new housing construction area (monthly) is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million. The housing completion area (monthly) is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million [3] - The automobile production (monthly) is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107500. The air - conditioner production (monthly) is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45 [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 38.46% (daily), down 0.09. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.2% (daily), up 0.02 [3] Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US January non - farm payrolls report was strong, pushing back the market's expectation of the first interest - rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3] - In the fundamental aspect, the zinc ore imports in China are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore purchases has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to be restricted [3] - The LME zinc price has corrected recently, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning into the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors also weakening, while policies in the automobile and other fields bring some bright spots [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 长假临近淡季价格小幅波动 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.56美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化110元/吨至24660元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日120元/吨至24640元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-55元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至24610元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-09沪锌主力合约开于24630元/吨，收于24540元/吨，较前一交易日50元/吨，全天交易日成交 122879手，全天交易日持仓63501手，日内价格最高点达到24745元/吨，最低点达到24420元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.85万吨，较上期变化1.45万吨。截止2026-02-09，LME 锌库存为106925吨，较上一交易日变化-675吨。 市场分析 实际消费进入季节性淡季，下游开工明显回落，但季节性表现节奏与往年同步，并无额外利空表现。矿端方面， 国内矿山冶炼厂均进入减产检修周期，冶炼厂采购需求下滑，进口矿同样成交寥 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 现货贴水开始扩大 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-25.89美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至24900元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-170元/吨至24900元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至24850元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-04沪锌主力合约开于24800元/吨，收于24885元/吨，较前一交易日-20元/吨，全天交易日成交 208461手，全天交易日持仓79219手，日内价格最高点达到25010元/吨，最低点达到24720元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-04，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化0.86万吨。截止2026-02-04，LME 锌库存为108200吨，较上一交易日变化-775吨。 市场分析 下游开始进入放假阶段，下游加工品产量环比回落，叠加绝对价格止跌贸易商挺价，现货市场成交冷清，现货贴 水持续扩大。不过今年季节性淡季与往年节奏同步，前期绝对价格的上涨对下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 库存小幅增加淡季开始显现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-8.41美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-820元/吨至24970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至25000元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至24920元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-02沪锌主力合约开于25735元/吨，收于24515元/吨，较前一交易日-1805元/吨，全天交易日成交 446017手，全天交易日持仓91209手，日内价格最高点达到25905元/吨，最低点达到24245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-02，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化0.86万吨。截止2026-02-02，LME 锌库存为109100吨，较上一交易日变化-900吨。 市场分析 消费进入淡季表现确认，绝对价格的回落对下游采购刺激性有限，华东华南贴水小幅修复，天津地区贴水继续扩 大。社会库存开始进入累库初期，累库幅度相对较缓，库存绝对值依 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that zinc prices are expected to remain strong due to low processing fees for zinc concentrate and limited production, despite some pressure from recent adjustments in trading rules [1][2] - Overnight, London zinc prices increased by 0.51%, closing at $3,376 per ton, with a trading volume of 14,032 lots, reflecting a rise in market activity [1] - The Shanghai zinc market also showed strength, with the main contract closing at 25,320 yuan per ton, up 0.42%, indicating a positive trend in domestic prices [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, which has led to a slight rebound in the US dollar, although this has had a limited impact on zinc prices [1] - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain low, causing smelting profits to fall below cost levels, which has constrained production and tightened supply, thereby supporting zinc prices [2] - Demand for zinc is expected to weaken as the seasonal slowdown approaches the Chinese New Year, but some traders are still actively purchasing low-priced sources, stabilizing transactions [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 基本面数据表现坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-26.43美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化80元/吨至24760元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24820元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-27沪锌主力合约开于25280元/吨，收于24950元/吨，较前一交易日190元/吨，全天交易日成交 255674手，全天交易日持仓118946手，日内价格最高点达到25280元/吨，最低点达到24710元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-27，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.68万吨，较上期变化-0.20万吨。截止2026-01-27，LME 锌库存为110550吨，较上一交易日变化-775吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro and capital factors. Short-term adjustments may be needed due to macro mood fluctuations and previous rapid price increases, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard. Nickel market is expected to have significant upward elasticity due to policy disturbances. Zinc prices may continue to show high-level oscillations, with limited continuous upward momentum [13][49][73] Summary by Metals Aluminum Market Review - This week, aluminum prices were strongly supported around 24,000 yuan. The overall market showed an external-strong and internal-weak pattern, with the import window closed. Alumina futures prices rebounded after a mid-week decline due to a mine accident in Guinea. Aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. High prices continued to suppress terminal demand, and inventory increased slightly compared to last week [8] Operation Suggestions - Although both domestic and overseas ore sectors were disturbed to some extent this week, ore prices remained weak. Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely at low levels under the pressure of an oversupply. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and aluminum processing showed a slight recovery. Considering the current situation, short-term price adjustments may be needed, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard [13] Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were weak. Some northern domestic mines reduced production due to weather and are gradually resuming work, while southern mines remained stable. Overseas, the bauxite market was quiet, and alumina plants had low purchasing willingness [14] - **Alumina**: Futures prices rebounded from a low level, but the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The weighted index of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals decreased slightly compared to last week, and the operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased [18][19] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit level of the smelting industry remained high. The total industry cost decreased slightly, while the average profit increased [25] - **Aluminum Ingot Import and Export**: The import window remained closed. In December 2025, the net import of aluminum ingots increased [31] - **Aluminum Processing**: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly, but different sectors showed different trends. Some sectors were affected by environmental protection, weather, and other factors, while others were supported by orders from specific fields [34] - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly compared to last week, while aluminum rod inventory increased significantly [38][41] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices strengthened again this week, maintaining a high-level wide-range oscillation pattern. Spot trading remained cold, and the import window was closed [45] Operation Suggestions - The expected shortage of nickel ore supply supported miners to continuously raise prices. Nickel iron prices continued to rise, while nickel salt prices weakened. Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market to maintain significant upward elasticity [48][49] Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: Prices in the Philippines and Indonesia increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [50] - **Nickel Iron Market**: The production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia decreased in December 2025. The supply side continued to hold firm prices, and the demand side showed some activity but with differences between upstream and downstream [54] - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In December 2025, the monthly production of electrolytic nickel in China increased, and the import and export volumes also changed [61] - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: Nickel salt prices decreased slightly this week. The production of nickel sulfate in December 2025 decreased, and the industry's operating load remained at a certain level [65] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market increased slightly, mainly due to the contradiction between rising futures prices and weak terminal demand [69] Zinc Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector showed differentiation and high-level adjustments. Zinc prices at high levels showed a callback, and then strengthened in the second half of the week. The import window was not fully opened, and the spot premium decreased slightly [70][71] Operation Suggestions - The zinc concentrate market remained tight. The supply of zinc ore was affected by seasonal and overseas factors, and the processing fee was expected to remain low. The demand side was weak, and zinc prices were likely to oscillate at high levels with limited upward momentum [72][73] Fundamental Changes - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the import processing fee decreased. The production of zinc ingots in January is expected to increase slightly compared to December [76][77] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly, but overall demand was weak due to high zinc prices and environmental protection measures [78][79] - **Spot Market**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, while LME zinc inventory increased. The cash-3M spread of LME zinc remained in contango [80]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - Micro data is relatively stable, social inventory accumulation is slow, and spot market supply pressure is low [1][5] - Zinc price valuation is still low, and downstream acceptance of price is relatively good [5] - Short - term market sentiment is weak, and zinc price shows a correction trend [5] - TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting faces losses, so supply - side pressure is unlikely to appear [5] - Long - term consumption is still promising, and inventory pressure is not high [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$41.66/ton [2] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24340 yuan/ton, spot premium: 40 yuan/ton [2] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: -70 yuan/ton to 24350 yuan/ton, spot premium: 5 yuan/ton [2] - Tianjin zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24280 yuan/ton, spot premium: -20 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 20, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24370 yuan/ton, closed at 24410 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day), with trading volume of 143056 lots and positions of 125893 lots. The highest price was 24515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24275 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 12.20 million tons, a change of 0.35 million tons from the previous period [4] - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, LME zinc inventory: 112300 tons, a change of 7250 tons from the previous trading day [4]