有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 2025/09/29 -15 2077 98779 25603 -898.28 192.48 53.0 57.0 -29.22 143900 9875 变化 -1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]

沪锌产业日报 2025-09-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21800 | -180 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -45 | -15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2886.5 | -36 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 251024 | 20743 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -10043 | -3089 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 59264 | 1691 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 100544 | 1229 LME库存(日,吨) | 42775 | -1025 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21630 | -320 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21180 | -780 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -170 | -140 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 39.84 | -14 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/29 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/22 70 1351 105814 29893 -157.47 153.75 58.0 59.0 -72.44 145375 12475 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 变化 - ...

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The zinc spot market is difficult to improve, even if the previous absolute price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton, the spot discount has not been repaired. The domestic and foreign trends still deviate, with continuous destocking of overseas inventories, increasing the risk of warehouse receipts, which forms a favorable support for prices. Domestically, consumption shows an obvious transition from the off - season to the peak season, with the downstream operating rate increasing month - on - month, but the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic concentrate TC may decline later, the imported concentrate TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $43.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 21,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,895 yuan/ton, closed at 21,860 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 109,733 lots, and the position was 141,867 lots. The highest intraday price reached 21,985 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,860 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased again, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metal prices. However, the zinc spot market is difficult to improve. The domestic and foreign trends deviate, with overseas destocking and increasing warehouse - receipt risks supporting prices. Domestically, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but supply - side pressure remains, and inventory accumulation is still expected. [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral. [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 国内消费淡季转旺季，海外持续去库难缓解 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为50.91美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至21950元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-60元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-30元/吨至21950元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至21950元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-22沪锌主力合约开于21960元/吨，收于22090元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交 140526手，全天交易日持仓130425手，日内价格最高点达到22095元/吨，最低点达到21890元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-22，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.70万吨，较上期变化-0.15万吨。截止2025-09-22，LME 锌库存为46825吨，较上一交易日变化-1000吨。 市场分析 国内外走势依旧偏离，内外比值持续阔达，海外库存持续去库，升水走高，仓单风险进一步增加，对价格形成有 利支撑。国内方面，消费呈现较为明显的淡季转旺季的情况，下游 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. Domestic downstream price - fixing enthusiasm increased, and the spot discount was slightly repaired but still weaker than the off - season. The internal - external ratio is widening, with the LME inventory falling below 50,000 tons and the spot export window about to open. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with large supply pressure and difficult de - stocking. Overseas has strong support, and attention should be paid to overseas interest rate cut frequency and inflation data [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $24.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On September 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 119,872 lots, and the open interest was 71,757 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Performance: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. ZN2510 closed at 22,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was - 5. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, with some local quotes slightly falling. SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices dropped due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profit, it remained at a relatively high level. September saw more smelter overhauls and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material price hikes and tight supply, with expected monthly output down 1 - 2 tons to around 600,000 tons. Supply remained generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, leading to a month - on - month increase in the primary consumption sector's开工. However, the improvement in consumption was slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace. There was a divergence between the strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with concerns about overseas refined zinc supply causing a spot premium (0 - 3B41.33). Given the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and no sign of a de - stocking inflection point, the market maintained a range - bound pattern. The market generally expected a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to be announced early Thursday, and attention was on Powell's speech for guidance on the path of interest rate cuts for the year [7] Group 3: Industry News - Zinc Price and Transaction Information: On September 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,175 - 22,280 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand was 22,285 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,105 - 22,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v at a 20 - yuan/ton discount, Huize at a 50 - 60 - yuan/ton premium, and high - end brand Double - swallow at a 90 - 100 - yuan/ton premium. In different regions, the prices and quotes relative to the contracts varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,175 - 22,260 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2510 contract; in Tianjin, 0 zinc was at 22,110 - 22,270 yuan/ton, with various discounts to the 2510 contract; in Guangdong, 0 zinc was at 22,090 - 22,230 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2511 contract and a discount to Shanghai spot prices, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price spread widened [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department provided data on the two - market zinc price trends, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [7][10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 海外升水快速走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为30.17美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22230元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22190元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-110元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-90元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15沪锌主力合约开于22345元/吨，收于22310元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交97830 手，全天交易日持仓92003手，日内价格最高点达到22365元/吨，最低点达到22255元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-15，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.06万吨，较上期变化0.64万吨。截止2025-09-15，LME 锌库存为50150吨，较上一交易日变化-375吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增量预期不变。冶炼 ...