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龙源电力(00916.HK):以资产质量为帆 乘入市之风起航
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-16 02:25
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 7.18 HKD based on an 8x PE for the year 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest wind power operator, backed by the State Energy Group, and is undergoing a transformation towards clean energy, with a target of adding approximately 30GW of new energy capacity [2][39]. - The company has a strong advantage in wind power asset quality, which is expected to stand out in the new market environment following the introduction of comprehensive marketization policies for renewable energy [3][64]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects, with 14.7GW of development indicators secured for 2024 and a focus on upgrading older wind farms to enhance efficiency [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Development - The company is a pioneer in wind power development in China, maintaining its position as the largest wind power operator globally since 2015, with a total installed capacity of 41.1GW as of the end of 2024 [18][39]. - The company has divested its thermal power assets, enhancing its green energy profile and focusing on renewable energy [19]. 2. Growth Drivers - The company has added approximately 17GW of new energy capacity from 2021 to 2024, with a goal of 5GW in 2025, leveraging its strong financing capabilities and project resource acquisition [2][39]. - The company is actively engaging in technology upgrades and new constructions to drive growth, with a significant number of projects in high-quality resource areas [2][35]. 3. Market Environment and Asset Quality - The introduction of the "136 Document" marks a new phase of marketization for renewable energy, with wind power expected to perform better than solar due to its non-simultaneous output characteristics [3][44]. - The company’s wind power assets have shown higher average utilization hours compared to local averages, primarily due to its early development of high-quality wind resources and a significant proportion of subsidized projects [3][64]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.83, 0.90, and 0.98 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [4][8]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in average on-grid electricity prices for wind power projects from 2025 to 2027, with expected changes of -1.3%, -1.2%, and -1.7% year-on-year [3][60].