证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 月 22 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 6.83 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 8.30/5.12 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 57,097.54 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 22,661.13 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 67.27 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 龙源电力(00916.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the new energy commercial vehicle industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development driven by market forces rather than resources, supported by recent government policies aimed at enhancing market mechanisms and promoting sustainable growth [6][10]. Policy and Regulations - Recent policies have been issued to promote the market-oriented reform of new energy pricing and to accelerate the construction of a national electricity spot market, aiming for comprehensive market entry of new energy by 2025 [8][10]. - The new national standard for the transportation of lithium batteries will be implemented in February 2026, enhancing safety and efficiency in the supply chain of the new energy vehicle industry [13][14]. - The hydrogen energy industry is seeing significant policy support, with a long-term development plan outlining strategic goals and legal frameworks for hydrogen utilization [15][16]. Market Insights - From January to July 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 469,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 61.1%, with a penetration rate of 24.2% [19][22]. - Sales of new energy heavy trucks during the same period totaled 96,000 units, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 179.3% and a penetration rate of 22.9% [23][30]. - Major players like XCMG and SANY continue to lead the market, while traditional companies are accelerating their electrification transitions [22][30]. Company Monitoring - Chery Commercial Vehicles held a mid-year business meeting for its Kairy small truck and Kairy VAN series, aiming to become the leading brand in the new energy small truck category with a target of 200,000 annual sales by 2025 [38]. - GAC Aion's new energy heavy truck T9 has officially rolled off the production line, designed specifically for short-haul transport scenarios, showcasing advanced features and a focus on lifecycle value services [40]. - Proton Motors launched the "Yao Ling II," equipped with advanced liquid hydrogen technology, aimed at enhancing logistics efficiency through innovative design and operational flexibility [41][42]. - Rongcheng New Energy has completed the integration of a hydrogen heavy truck powered by a 400kW fuel cell stack, entering the testing phase with a focus on efficiency and reliability [43][46].

Core Insights - The report from State Grid Energy Research Institute indicates that by 2024, China's renewable energy generation will transition from being an incremental contributor to a stock-based contributor, with renewable energy becoming the main source of electricity generation growth [1][2] - By the end of 2024, China's cumulative renewable energy installed capacity is expected to reach 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power as the largest energy source [1][2] - The report forecasts that by 2025, the new installed capacity of renewable energy in China will reach between 430 million to 500 million kilowatts, with a potential installed capacity of over 3 billion kilowatts by 2030 [1][3] Installed Capacity and Generation - As of 2024, the installed capacity of wind power is projected to be 520 million kilowatts, while solar power is expected to reach 890 million kilowatts [1] - In terms of generation, renewable energy is expected to contribute 1.84 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for 18.5% of total electricity generation, up nearly 3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The utilization rate of renewable energy is expected to remain above 95% in 2024, supported by improvements in grid integration and power system balancing capabilities [2] Cost Trends and Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decrease in the cost of renewable energy generation, with onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar power costs dropping by approximately 26%, 23%, and 23% respectively in 2024 [2] - The transition to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy is anticipated to begin in 2025, which will likely lead to a decrease in grid connection prices due to increased competition [3] Future Development and Recommendations - The renewable energy sector is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with an average annual increase of 30 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Experts recommend enhancing technological innovation, developing long-term electricity price forecasting models, and optimizing investment decisions to sustain high-quality development in the renewable energy sector [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the green electricity (绿电) industry, particularly the impact of policy-driven market transactions and the challenges faced by listed companies in this sector [1][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the green electricity sector is driven by policy changes and market transaction rules, emphasizing cash flow value and marginal changes, contrasting with nuclear power investment logic [1][3]. - **Valuation Factors**: Key factors affecting the valuation of the green electricity industry include: - Settlement electricity prices, which have been declining since 2020, directly impacting cash inflows and long-term returns [1][6]. - Consumption issues due to high installed capacity leading to limited operating hours, negatively affecting net cash flow and project returns [6][21]. - Subsidy arrears, which suppress free cash flow due to slow central government payment schedules [6][26]. - **Policy Impact**: The issuance of Document No. 136 is expected to enhance market certainty for both existing and new projects, stabilize electricity prices, and improve cash flow through better subsidy management [1][7][10]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The transition to a market-driven pricing mechanism is anticipated to stabilize overall electricity prices and improve the profitability of existing projects [10][12]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: The industry is expected to see a rational return in capital expenditures, with new installed capacity projected to decrease from an average of 250-300 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan to 200 GW in the 15th [24]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: The green certificate prices have risen due to increased requirements for high-energy-consuming industries to use green electricity, indicating potential additional revenue for green electricity companies [20]. - **Future Subsidy Solutions**: Historical subsidy arrears are expected to be resolved through natural growth and policy support, with discussions around special bonds or secured loans to expedite this process [27]. Recommendations for Specific Companies - Companies such as Longyuan Power, New天绿色能源, and 大唐新能源 are advised to adapt their strategies in response to the new market environment post-Document No. 136, focusing on optimizing capital expenditure and improving operational efficiency [8][28]. Conclusion - The green electricity sector is poised for a transformation driven by policy changes, market dynamics, and rational capital expenditure, which could lead to improved cash flow and valuation for companies in this space [7][30].

Core Viewpoint - The "136 Document" is a landmark policy that promotes the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to increased competition and a shift from a "big pot" model to a competition based on comprehensive strength, where companies' alpha will depend on cost control and market trading capabilities [3][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The introduction of the "136 Document" is expected to reshape the industry ecosystem, increasing revenue uncertainty for companies [3][5]. - Local governments will balance investment attraction with the energy cost burden on downstream users, potentially leading to a healthier industry development [3][12]. - Power companies are expected to optimize investment structures, focusing on more efficient offshore wind and large-scale bases with controllable price risks [3][16]. Group 2: Consumption Policies - The era of "load is king" has begun, with policies encouraging local consumption and export consumption [4][33]. - The "green electricity direct connection" policy aims to alleviate grid pressure and meet the green energy needs of export-oriented enterprises [4][46]. - The subsidy burden remains significant, with major renewable energy companies facing cash flow and valuation pressures due to high accounts receivable [4][12]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms - The "136 Document" establishes a differentiated pricing mechanism, allowing for a more competitive environment where project returns can vary based on operational and trading capabilities [20][21]. - The mechanism for price settlement will require all projects to participate in market trading, which will influence their final settlement prices [20][21]. - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize over time as market trading becomes more established [3][22]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment focus is shifting towards large-scale wind and solar projects, particularly in desert and coastal areas, which are expected to yield better returns [16][17]. - The development of large-scale projects is anticipated to reduce costs through centralized procurement and management [17][18]. - Offshore wind projects are expected to provide more reliable power supply and better pricing due to their proximity to load centers [18]. Group 5: New Business Models - New operational entities are emerging, with energy storage and virtual power plants becoming more economically viable [19]. - The shift from mandatory energy storage to optional configurations allows companies to optimize their energy storage strategies based on economic assessments [19]. - Virtual power plants are expected to play a crucial role in aggregating resources and providing various adjustment services [19]. Group 6: Regional Market Developments - Regions with advanced market trading are showing signs of price stabilization, while areas with newly initiated trading may face greater price decline risks [3][22]. - The marketization of trading in the "Three North" regions has led to a trading ratio exceeding 80%, indicating a more competitive environment [3][22]. - The average electricity price in regions with high marketization is expected to stabilize, reflecting the competitive dynamics of the market [22][23]. Group 7: Policy Implications - Policies are increasingly focusing on demand-side management to enhance green electricity consumption, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries [44][52]. - The establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories is encouraged to leverage the decarbonization potential of industrial zones [51]. - High-energy industries are being mandated to take on compulsory consumption responsibilities for green electricity, indicating a trend towards stricter regulatory frameworks [52][54].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Financial Industry - Automotive Parts Industry - Robotics Industry - New Energy Industry (specifically Solar Power) - Industrial Sector Key Points and Arguments Financial Industry Insights - Recent research conducted in coastal cities regarding export impacts and financial industry perspectives was discussed [1] Automotive Parts Industry - Automotive parts exported to the U.S. typically involve FOB contracts, where car manufacturers bear tariffs. Tariffs previously exceeding 100% caused temporary halts, but operations have resumed [2] - Component manufacturers are unlikely to shift production overseas unless requested by clients, as domestic production remains profitable compared to establishing factories in Mexico or Southeast Asia [2] Robotics Industry - Various components for robotics are being developed, including structural parts, motors, sensors, and actuators. However, significant project implementation is still pending [3] - Chinese suppliers may still engage in the U.S. robotics market if they establish overseas manufacturing facilities [3] New Energy Industry - The cooling segment experienced a 28% growth in Q1, driven by domestic air conditioning replacement demand and pre-tariff exports to the U.S. [4] - The company Topu is expected to generate an additional revenue of 5 to 6 billion from domestic EV clients, with Tesla's sales being a significant variable affecting overall performance [4] Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is experiencing a growth range of 20% to 50% in revenue and profits, supported by domestic consumption and export demand [6] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to be delayed, with a 90-day grace period allowing for recovery in downstream shipments [6][7] - The automation sector is expected to see a decline in growth rates due to reduced domestic investment and increased competition from overseas suppliers [8] Market Trends and Predictions - The automation market is shifting towards domestic brands like Huichuan, which are gaining market share due to increasing localization [9] - The engineering machinery sector is entering an upward cycle, although growth potential is not as high as in previous cycles [10][11] - The humanoid robotics market is still far from commercialization, but progress is being monitored for potential catalysts [11] Solar Power Industry Insights - Concerns regarding the solar manufacturing sector's overcapacity and the impact of government policies on new installations were highlighted [13] - Predictions for China's solar installation capacity in 2025 have been revised down from 280 GW to a range of 230-250 GW, primarily due to changes in centralized power station forecasts [14][16] - The overall electricity demand growth in China is projected to remain around 6%, supported by ongoing projects in renewable energy [19] Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The energy market is undergoing changes with new pricing mechanisms and regulations affecting the profitability of solar projects [20][21] - The long-term outlook for coal-fired power prices is declining, but experts predict that commercial electricity prices may remain stable or slightly increase [23][24] Conclusion - The conference call provided insights into various industries, highlighting growth opportunities and challenges, particularly in the context of tariffs, market dynamics, and regulatory changes. The focus on domestic production and localization trends is evident across sectors, with a cautious outlook on international trade impacts.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 7.18 HKD based on an 8x PE for the year 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest wind power operator, backed by the State Energy Group, and is undergoing a transformation towards clean energy, with a target of adding approximately 30GW of new energy capacity [2][39]. - The company has a strong advantage in wind power asset quality, which is expected to stand out in the new market environment following the introduction of comprehensive marketization policies for renewable energy [3][64]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects, with 14.7GW of development indicators secured for 2024 and a focus on upgrading older wind farms to enhance efficiency [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Development - The company is a pioneer in wind power development in China, maintaining its position as the largest wind power operator globally since 2015, with a total installed capacity of 41.1GW as of the end of 2024 [18][39]. - The company has divested its thermal power assets, enhancing its green energy profile and focusing on renewable energy [19]. 2. Growth Drivers - The company has added approximately 17GW of new energy capacity from 2021 to 2024, with a goal of 5GW in 2025, leveraging its strong financing capabilities and project resource acquisition [2][39]. - The company is actively engaging in technology upgrades and new constructions to drive growth, with a significant number of projects in high-quality resource areas [2][35]. 3. Market Environment and Asset Quality - The introduction of the "136 Document" marks a new phase of marketization for renewable energy, with wind power expected to perform better than solar due to its non-simultaneous output characteristics [3][44]. - The company’s wind power assets have shown higher average utilization hours compared to local averages, primarily due to its early development of high-quality wind resources and a significant proportion of subsidized projects [3][64]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.83, 0.90, and 0.98 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [4][8]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in average on-grid electricity prices for wind power projects from 2025 to 2027, with expected changes of -1.3%, -1.2%, and -1.7% year-on-year [3][60].

Industry Chain - "Demand expectations" have weakened, leading to a rebound and subsequent decline in industry chain prices. The prices of silicon materials have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled and granular silicon prices at 41,000 and 39,000 yuan per ton respectively, down 1.7% and stable compared to the end of March. Downstream companies are prioritizing the consumption of their polysilicon inventory and delaying procurement plans [2][10] - The production of components is expected to reach 61GW in April, a month-on-month increase of 29%, driven by ongoing demand from installations [19][22] Demand - Domestic installations saw a significant increase, with 20.24GW added in March, a year-on-year increase of 124%. Cumulatively, 59.71GW was installed from January to March, up 31% year-on-year [4][24] - Exports of battery components reached 30.01GW in March, a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month-on-month increase of 53%, indicating strong overseas demand and low inventory levels [35][46] Procurement Data Tracking - The procurement volume in April has significantly narrowed, with the median price of N-type procurement contracts decreasing slightly by 0.01 yuan/W. The total procurement volume for state-owned enterprises was 42.4GW, down 8% year-on-year [5][59] Industry Events Update - The US-China tariff conflict has begun, impacting the solar storage sector and maintaining profit barriers in the US market. Recent trade policy fluctuations suggest that domestic demand support may strengthen further [63][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand resilience post-installation rush is expected to gradually validate the industry's growth potential, despite concerns about a potential sharp decline in demand [27][31]