价值类策略
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永赢基金价值类指数相关ETF:市场风格后期或存波动,价值类指数配置优势凸显
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 05:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The growth style's strong performance has weakened recently, while the value style may show stable performance, especially the dividend style which has better stability in the fourth quarter [18][21] - Value and high - dividend strategies are effective, and their combination can diversify return sources and enhance portfolio stability [8] - In a low - interest - rate environment, high - dividend products have greater allocation value, and both A - share and Hong Kong - stock high - dividend index products can serve as bond substitutes [30][34][37] - Value and high - dividend strategies have the advantage of being "offensive and defensive", with lower volatility and stronger stability [42] - Different value - based indices have their own characteristics. The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index has high - dividend and low - volatility attributes; the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index is prominent in high - dividend attributes; the Guosen Free Cash Flow Index focuses on free cash flow and has growth potential [9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Growth Style Slowdown and Value Style Potential - The growth style was strong at the beginning of 2025 but weakened from September to October 2025. The dividend style has stronger trend persistence and stability [18][21] - Historically, the growth style has higher return elasticity in the first three quarters but greater volatility in the fourth quarter. The dividend style has better stability throughout the year, especially in the fourth - quarter drawdown control [27][28] 2. Effectiveness of Value and High - Dividend Strategies - From the investor perspective, the value strategy focuses on undervalued assets, and the high - dividend strategy emphasizes dividend income. From the corporate fundamentals, value - investing targets companies with competitive advantages, and high - dividend companies have strong profitability. In the valuation system, the value strategy uses P/E and P/B, and the high - dividend strategy uses the dividend rate [8] 3. Value of High - Dividend Products in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - Since 2006, China's 10 - year Treasury yield has mostly fluctuated between 2.8% - 4.6% and has been in a downward trend since 2017. In 2024, it entered the 1.0% era, making high - dividend assets more valuable [30] - High - dividend strategies perform well in a low - interest - rate environment. The Hong Kong - stock and A - share high - dividend index products can be used as bond substitutes when their dividend rates are significantly higher than Treasury yields [34][37] 4. "Offensive and Defensive" Advantage of Value and High - Dividend Strategies - Value and high - dividend strategy products have low volatility and stability. Their defensive ability comes from corporate fundamentals, investor structure, and valuation [42] - Comparing the net - value trends of common dividend indices and broad - based indices in Hong Kong and A - shares, the dividend indices have stronger long - term stability [42] 5. Importance of Value - Based Indices - Value - based indices mainly include dividend and free - cash - flow types. Hong Kong - stock and A - share dividends have different characteristics and industry distributions [51] - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index has low volatility and relatively stable returns. The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has high volatility and greater return elasticity [56][57] 6. Specific Value - Based Indices CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index - It selects 50 securities with high dividends and low volatility, mainly concentrated in the banking, transportation, and construction industries [59][62] - It combines dividend and low - volatility strategies, with a stable dividend rate from 2018 - 2024, and has low volatility and stable returns [66][72][75] CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - It selects high - dividend central - enterprise stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, mainly concentrated in the financial, industrial, and energy industries [76][79] - It is prominent in high - dividend attributes, with a long - term dividend rate above 5% from 2017 - 2024, and has low valuation and high - dividend characteristics [84][91] Guosen Free Cash Flow Index - It selects 100 securities with high free - cash - flow rates, with a relatively dispersed industry distribution [93][95][97] - It focuses on free cash flow, has growth potential in revenue and net profit, and also has high - dividend and profitability attributes [103][106][111] 7. Yongying Fund's Value - Based Index - Related ETFs - Yongying Fund has three value - based index - related ETFs: Yongying CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, Yongying CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF, and Yongying Guosen Free Cash Flow ETF, all using an index - based investment strategy [10][117]