Group 1: Market Outlook - The price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak supply and demand and cost support. The supply side has started a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline in December. The electricity price was stable and slightly stronger in November, which increased the cost [2][73][74]. - The price of silicomanganese is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The supply side has entered a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally in December. The manganese ore port inventory is lower than last year, and the price is strong, providing strong support for the cost [2][74]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the combined effect of weak supply and demand and cost support [3]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In November, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated downward due to the pressure on steel profits, increased steel mill maintenance, and high enterprise inventories [7]. 2. Supply and Demand - Supply: The production of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to decline slightly in November. On November 21, the national 136 - independent ferrosilicon enterprise sample开工率 was 33.81%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous period; the national 187 - independent silicomanganese enterprise sample开工率 was 39.13%, a 0.465% decrease from the previous period [23]. - Demand: The molten iron production showed a narrow - range fluctuation in November. It is expected to rebound in the short term but decline in December [24]. 3. Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: In November, the alloy factory inventory fluctuated upward, especially the silicomanganese inventory increased significantly. On November 21, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 7.31 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous period; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.3 tons, an increase of 1.05 tons from the previous period [38]. - Downstream inventory: Steel mills may have phased replenishment demand in December, but the replenishment intensity is expected to be limited [38]. 4. Cost - The port steam coal price was strong in November, and the electricity price in the ferrosilicon production area was stable and slightly stronger, increasing the alloy production cost [54]. - The manganese ore port inventory is about 200 tons lower than last year. The price is strong, with the Tianjin Gangao block rising 0.8 yuan/ton degree and the Gabon block rising 1.7 yuan/ton degree in November, providing strong support for the silicomanganese cost [54].