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张瑜:有独立于PPI的行业价格吗?
一瑜中的· 2025-11-09 12:53
Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the independence of certain industry prices from the overall Producer Price Index (PPI) in the context of China's economic transformation and the impact of the real estate market adjustment and supply-demand mismatches in various industries [2][10]. Group 1: Price Independence Analysis - There are two main conclusions: first, approximately 24% of industries exhibit relative independence in pricing, but their price elasticity is low, making macro analysis challenging; these industries are significantly influenced by government pricing and specific policies [2][5][7]. - Most industries still show a high correlation with PPI trends, indicating that the PPI cycle remains significant for nominal growth, corporate profits, and inflation expectations during the transition to high-quality economic development [2][5]. Group 2: Analysis by Product Use - The estimated weights of production and living materials are approximately 75% and 25%, respectively; production materials include mining, raw materials, and processing, while living materials encompass food, clothing, general daily necessities, and durable goods [4][13]. - Production material prices are highly correlated with PPI, with a correlation coefficient of 0.999, while living material prices lag behind PPI by about two quarters, with a correlation coefficient of 0.67 [4][16]. Group 3: Industrial Classification Perspective - In the broadest industry classification, the weights of mining, upstream manufacturing, midstream manufacturing, downstream manufacturing, and electric heat gas water are approximately 4%, 31%, 41%, 14%, and 9%, respectively [5][20]. - Among 39 major industries analyzed, 9 industries are relatively independent, accounting for about 10.4% of the total, including instruments, clothing, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco products [5][27]. Group 4: Mid-Level Industry Analysis - Among 198 mid-level industries, 78 are relatively independent, representing about 24% of the total; these include industries significantly influenced by government pricing or specific policies, as well as certain high-tech sectors [7][31]. - The price movements of relatively independent industries have been stable, fluctuating between -1% and 2% since 2014, with no clear cyclical pattern [7][32]. Group 5: High-Tech and Strategic Emerging Industries - Despite the growth of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries, their prices remain closely tied to PPI trends, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.87, respectively, lagging PPI by about two months [8][36]. - Some sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries show relative price independence, particularly in areas like next-generation information technology and biotechnology, while others remain correlated with PPI [8][41].