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高盛:中国上市公司今年派息或达3万亿元 估值有望水涨船高
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 03:09
Group 1 - The report by Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese onshore and offshore listed companies will distribute a total of 3 trillion RMB in dividends, reaching a historical high [1][2] - In 2024, over 4,300 Chinese companies listed in mainland China, Hong Kong, and the United States are expected to distribute 2.7 trillion RMB in dividends, with a projected 10% increase to 3 trillion RMB in 2025 [2][3] - The increase in dividend payouts is largely driven by national policy guidelines encouraging companies to distribute dividends to enhance investor confidence, as outlined in the new "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - Following the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles," over 200 companies have distributed dividends for the first time since 2020, and 1,080 companies listed in mainland China paid interim or special dividends in 2024 [3] - The dividend payout ratio for Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year, up from 37% in 2023 and above the ten-year average of 31% [3] - Companies in traditional sectors such as finance, energy, telecommunications, and utilities are more likely to use dividends as a primary method of returning capital to shareholders [3] Group 3 - The report highlights that the current yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds has dropped to a record low of 1.64%, making generous dividend payouts from listed companies attractive to investors seeking higher returns compared to bonds [3] - It is noted that if listed companies allocate 10% of total cash expenditures to dividends or buybacks, it could enhance company valuations by 14% on average [3] - If the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reaches the average levels seen in Asia and Europe, the valuations of mainland Chinese stocks could increase by 15% to 25% over the next decade [3]