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经济数据波动,沪指震荡收跌
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 08:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's pressure on Powell has further boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a collective rise in the three major US stock indexes [2][3] - China's economic data shows fluctuations and still faces certain pressure, increasing the expectation of policy intensification [1][3] - President Xi Jinping's article on rectifying the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and the upcoming press conference on expanding consumption have reignited the anti - involution trading, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant targets [1][3] - The overall adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index has not ended, and investors are advised not to rush to bottom - fish but to hedge risks through stock index futures [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Economic Data**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month; the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1% and real estate development investment falling by 12.9% [1] - **Overseas Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far lower than the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators both fell to their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - **Stock Index Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes ended with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 3860.50 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.28 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes rose across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 0.94% to 22348.749 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new record highs. Alphabet's market value exceeded $3 trillion [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined on the day of the current - month contract delivery this Friday. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2] 2. Strategy - Continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in anti - involution trading targets [3] - Do not rush to bottom - fish, and use stock index futures to hedge risks [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][9][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance Table**: Shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on September 15, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., with corresponding daily changes [12] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [6][14] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Table**: Displays the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, along with their changes [15] - **Open Interest Charts**: Include charts of the open interest and open - interest ratios of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the net open interest of foreign investors in these contracts [6][16][19] - **Basis Table**: Presents the basis of stock index futures for different contracts (current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter) and their changes [38] - **Basis Charts**: Include charts of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [6][40][42] - **Inter - delivery Spread Table**: Shows the inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures and their changes [43][44] - **Inter - delivery Spread Charts**: Include charts of the inter - delivery spreads of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][45][50]