据央视新闻，当地时间22日，美军空袭伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施。对于伊朗核设施遭 受损失的情况，各方说法不一。英国《金融时报》26日报道称，伊朗的浓缩铀储备基本完好无损。对于 相关说法，美国国防部长赫格塞思予以否认。《金融时报》26日援引欧洲方面的情报评估称，伊朗储存 的浓缩铀并未集中存放在福尔多设施内，而是被分散到了多个地点。这意味着，伊朗核能力并未如美方 声称的那样遭受致命打击。 ...

6 月 13 日，以色列突然对伊朗发动了代号为「Operation Rising Lion」（狮子崛起）的袭击，导致伊朗军事 系统中的多名高层官员以及多位核科学家身亡。随后几日，以色列的攻击范围不断扩大，涵盖核设施、军 事基地、气田、外交部，甚至国家电视台。伊朗则迅速展开报复，对以色列多座城市发动导弹和无人机袭 击。 在双方交火的第四天 6 月 16 日， 「声东击西」邀请到清华大学青年学者文晶，她曾多次前往中东实地调 研，从「以色列为何突然对伊朗展开大规模袭击」的疑问出发，深入分析这场冲突背后复杂的地缘政治博 弈。 声东击西 以色列和伊朗的「正面硬刚」，为什么会在这个时间点发生？ 文晶 到 6 月 23 日，美国总统特朗普推动停火，希望通过谈判解决冲突，结束双方持续 12 天的空袭。然而仅数 小时后，以色列指控伊朗再次发动袭击，伊朗则予以否认，并表示将以外交手段回应。当前，全球仍在密 切关注这场脆弱停火能否持续。 这场被认为是近年来最激烈的以伊冲突，为何会在此时突然爆发？中东各国以及以色列的长期盟友——美 国，又有着怎样的战略考量？ 围绕这场战争背后的诸多关键问题，我们整理了本期节目的文字版内容，方 便大家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, stated that Iran's nuclear capabilities have been "destroyed" [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government believes that Iran's nuclear program has been significantly weakened [1] - This statement reflects a shift in the U.S. defense strategy regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [1] - The assertion may impact future diplomatic negotiations and military strategies in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a temporary ceasefire, but there are conflicting reports regarding the damage to Iran's nuclear facilities and the future of its nuclear capabilities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Damage Assessment - The U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Intelligence Agency reported that the strikes on June 22 did not destroy the core components of Iran's nuclear facilities, with ground structures severely damaged but centrifuges largely intact, potentially delaying Iran's nuclear program by only a few months [2]. - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the nuclear facilities suffered significant damage due to the attacks, and the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization is assessing the impact [3][5]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that while some nuclear facilities were severely damaged, Iran's nuclear research reactor and power reactor remained unaffected, and there was no radioactive impact on neighboring countries [5]. Group 2: Future of Iran's Nuclear Program - Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Zarif, emphasized that the attacks have strengthened Iran's resolve to advance its nuclear program, asserting that no one in Iran is willing to abandon nuclear technology [3][5]. - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization has prepared to resume its nuclear activities promptly, ensuring that production and services will not be interrupted [3][5]. - Despite the attacks, Iran reportedly still possesses a stockpile of enriched uranium, indicating that its nuclear capabilities have not been entirely compromised [5]. Group 3: Political Implications - The U.S. and Israeli assessments of the military strikes differ significantly, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming a historic victory while U.S. officials adopt a more cautious tone regarding the effectiveness of the strikes [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that if the perceived threat from Iran's nuclear capabilities is not significantly diminished, Israel may reconsider its approach and potentially resume military actions against Iran [8]. - The ceasefire, while fragile, may provide an opportunity for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, as both sides seek to avoid further escalation [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Israel claims that Iran's nuclear capabilities have regressed by several years [1] Group 1 - Israel's assertion indicates a significant setback in Iran's nuclear development, potentially affecting regional security dynamics [1] - The statement may influence international negotiations and sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of State, Rubio, stated that Iran's nuclear capabilities are significantly behind where they were just a few weeks ago [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a shift in the assessment of Iran's nuclear development progress [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Ambassador to the UN stated that military action cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Military Action - The ambassador emphasized that military operations are ineffective in permanently dismantling Iran's nuclear program [1] Nuclear Capabilities - The statement highlights the ongoing concerns regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities and the limitations of military intervention in addressing these issues [1]