说实话，最近的欧洲真是没有一天能安稳下来，简直是按下葫芦又起了瓢。无论是铁路遭到袭击、能源 供应危机，还是政坛不断动荡，种种问题接二连三地发生，仔细一看，背后似乎都与地缘政治博弈息息 相关。今天我们就来聊聊，欧洲大陆到底发生了什么，以及这些事情又如何与我们息息相关。 基础设 施遭遇破坏，混合战形势严峻 你有没有发现，现代战争的手段越来越不按常理出牌，专门挑一些软柿 子捏。就在上个周末，波兰的情况可不太妙——华沙到卢布林的关键铁路线被炸毁，整整一米长的铁轨 报废，附近的供电线路也被人为破坏。这可不是小打小闹，这条铁路不仅是波兰人民日常出行的主要交 通路线，更是帮助乌克兰获取援助的重要通道。许多乌克兰的武器、粮食等物资都需要通过这里运送。 波兰总理图斯克气得直拍桌子，直言这是前所未有的破坏，并誓言要找出幕后黑手。更巧合的是，斯洛 文尼亚也不安宁，近期发生了两起铁路事件，官方表示这绝不是疏忽，而是故意找茬。结合此前的无人 机乱飞、间谍事件，专家指出，这些问题背后可能是俄罗斯混合战争策略的升级。俄罗斯有一套名为格 拉西莫夫教义的战略手册，其中将混合战争分为8个阶段。现在看来，这些破坏行动已经进入了第5至第 6阶段，接 ...

随着乌克兰战事持续胶着，欧洲多国领导人的政治命运正与这场冲突的结果紧密相连。美国海军陆战队 前情报官员斯科特·里特近日发表分析称，包括欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、德国总理默茨在内的多位欧 洲重要政治人物，其执政前景都将受到乌克兰战局发展的深刻影响。 这位军事专家在公开指出："从欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯，到欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，再 到德国、英国、意大利和法国领导人，他们的政治生涯都已与乌克兰局势形成深度捆绑。"他进一步强 调，这些领导人中无人认为泽连斯基能够避免失败的结局。 欧洲政坛暗流涌动，乌克兰战局牵动领导人命运 专家指出，持续紧张的乌克兰危机正在欧洲各国引发政治连锁反应。那些坚定支持基辅政权的欧洲领导 人，目前正面临日益增大的国内政治压力。 他们的民意支持率与处理乌克兰危机的能力表现出越来越密切的关联，这种态势使得欧洲各国在制定对 乌政策时显得更为审慎。 地区格局面临重塑，多方博弈进入关键阶段 值得注意的是，不同欧洲领导人面临的政治环境各有特点。德国总理默茨需要在能源价格担忧与对乌支 持之间寻求平衡；法国总统马克龙始终致力于在西方联盟中发挥协调作用；而欧盟机构高层官员则必须 统筹协调各成员国间的不同 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

Core Insights - The international oil market is experiencing significant volatility, with Russian oil prices dropping to a low of $36 per barrel, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a severe impact on Russia's economy due to sanctions and reduced demand [1][3][7] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - India has reduced its oil purchases from Russia, with major refiners announcing they will not accept shipments after November 21, fearing U.S. sanctions [2][3] - In contrast, China has increased its oil imports from Russia, doubling the volume in August and securing additional shipments, focusing on higher-quality ESPO crude oil, which is more cost-effective in refining compared to the Ural crude purchased by India [5][7] Group 2: Economic Implications for Russia and Ukraine - Russia's economy heavily relies on energy exports, with one-third of its maritime crude oil currently unsold, leading to financial strain [7][10] - Ukraine is in urgent need of financial support, with the EU estimating it will require at least $83 billion by 2026, primarily for military expenses [9][10] Group 3: Geopolitical Shifts in Central Asia - Central Asian countries, led by Uzbekistan, are seeking to form a "Central Asian Community" to enhance regional cooperation and reduce reliance on external powers, taking advantage of Russia's weakened position [11][12][14] - The initiative aims to address regional issues such as water scarcity and infrastructure development, although political unity remains a challenge due to differing national interests [12][14] Group 4: Broader International Relations - The interplay between Russian sanctions, EU financial commitments to Ukraine, and Central Asian countries' strategic realignments illustrates the complex dynamics of international relations, where interests often outweigh alliances [16][17]

马杜罗最近的一招，确实有点让人摸不着头脑。有媒体爆出，他居然主动找上门来，愿意用委内瑞拉那 3000亿桶的石油，再加上一大堆黄金矿藏，换美国一句"别打我"。 这个消息一出来，不光让华盛顿警觉，也让世界看得一愣一愣的。这不是一场普通的外交交易，更像是 一场地缘政治的豪赌。问题来了：马杜罗这是主动投降，还是另有打算？背后又藏着什么算盘？ 马杜罗的"投诚书"到底写了啥 去年10月，马杜罗政府通过第三方牵线，悄悄递出一份协议草案，内容可以说是"诚意满满"。 他愿意让美国公司全面进驻委内瑞拉油田、金矿，合同条件可以谈得非常漂亮，甚至还提出：以后把原 本卖给中国的石油转去美国。一句话，资源让你，别动我。 这可不是委内瑞拉第一次打"石油牌"，但这次不一样。马杜罗话里话外的意思很清楚：只要美国肯松 口，不再搞政权更替那一套。他可以把自己从"反美俱乐部"里退出来，跟伊朗、俄罗斯那边断了联系， 换个阵营站。 表面上看，这像是求和，实际上更像是拿资源保命。 别忘了，委内瑞拉经济已经被折腾得快垮了。恶性通胀、物资短缺、货币一文不值，老百姓日子过得比 战区还苦。 马杜罗不是没想过硬扛，可是国际制裁一层层加码，国家几乎被锁死。他现在能拿 ...

欧洲清算银行的保险库里，2000亿欧元的俄罗斯资产仿佛成了"烫手山芋"，拿也不是，放也不是。 据俄新社报道，美国The Conversation门户网近日发文指出，欧盟在没收被冻结俄罗斯资产问题上正陷入两难境地。 一方面，欧洲清算银行首席执行官瓦莱丽·乌尔班发出警告："非法没收俄罗斯资产的行为将削弱欧洲实力"。另一方面，欧盟委员会却仍在推动利用这些资 产为乌克兰提供1400亿欧元的"赔偿贷款"。 这就像是一场高风险的地缘政治扑克，欧盟手里拿着俄罗斯的3000亿欧元外汇储备，却不知道该如何出牌。 01 法律陷阱：欧盟的"信任危机" 德国总理默茨提出一个看似聪明的方案——利用而非直接没收俄罗斯资产，为乌克兰提供1400亿欧元贷款。但这一计划立刻引发了法律界的哗然。 乌尔班尖锐地指出："这合法吗？尚不明确……没有先例可循。" 即使是在第二次世界大战期间，中央银行的资产也没有被没收。比利时首相巴特·德韦弗对此深表忧虑，他的担心并非空穴来风。 欧洲清算银行面临着一个棘手的会计难题：在他们的资产负债表上，有一笔欠俄罗斯中央银行的债务，同时有一笔存放在欧洲央行的现金资产。 最糟的情况是，现金资产被挪用于资助乌克兰贷款，而欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The takeover of Nexperia by the Dutch government highlights the hypocrisy of Western legal and contractual principles, revealing the geopolitical motivations behind such actions [1][6]. Group 1: Impact on Global Supply Chain - Nexperia holds a 9.4% share of the global automotive chip market, with 40% of Europe's automotive chips relying on its supply, indicating its critical role in the industry [2]. - The Dutch government's unilateral actions, including invoking a 70-year-old law for the takeover, disrupt the established norms of international investment and trade [2][3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Ramifications - The incident reflects the increasing politicization and securitization of international trade relations, with Western nations using security as a pretext for regulatory actions [3][5]. - The actions taken by the Dutch government are seen as influenced by U.S. export control policies, which aim to restrict Chinese companies' access to critical technologies [3][5]. Group 3: Legal and Contractual Integrity - The behavior of the Dutch government is viewed as a blatant challenge to international legal order, undermining the principles of contract and law that are supposed to govern global trade [6]. - The incident raises concerns about the reliability of the Netherlands as a business environment, questioning the commitment to contractual integrity and the rule of law [2][6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications for Europe - The event underscores the need for Europe to avoid falling into the "security trap" set by the U.S. and to adhere to the principles of law and multilateralism to protect its own interests [4][5]. - The EU's so-called "strategic autonomy" is called into question, as its policies towards China appear heavily influenced by U.S. pressures, undermining its independent decision-making [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for tungsten resources between the U.S. and China has intensified, with Kazakhstan unexpectedly granting development rights of a valuable tungsten mine to U.S. company Cove Capital LLC, undermining years of negotiations by Chinese firms [1][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The tungsten mine in Kazakhstan is not just a commercial transaction but a geopolitical struggle, with the U.S. government intervening to secure the deal [3][5]. - The U.S. offered Kazakhstan a package including technology transfer, financial loans, and a $4.2 billion railway infrastructure contract, employing a "carrot and stick" strategy to sway Kazakhstan's decision [5][7]. - The deal resulted in Cove Capital LLC acquiring a 70% stake, while Kazakhstan's state-owned enterprise retained only 30%, highlighting the political nature of the transaction rather than market forces [7][11]. Group 2: Importance of Tungsten - Tungsten, despite its low profile, is critical for various industries, including military applications, due to its high melting point and hardness, making it essential for manufacturing armor-piercing ammunition and aerospace components [9][11]. - The U.S. has classified tungsten as a "critical strategic material," yet it currently produces almost none domestically and relies heavily on China for processing [9][11]. Group 3: China's Resource Strategy - China controls 80% of global tungsten production and has a complete processing chain, but its high-grade tungsten resources are depleting, necessitating overseas resource acquisition to maintain its global influence [9][11]. - The loss of the Kazakhstan tungsten mine represents a significant setback for China, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced approach to resource diplomacy that includes political sensitivity and strategic flexibility [18][21]. Group 4: Kazakhstan's Diplomatic Maneuvering - Kazakhstan's decision to pivot towards the U.S. reflects its "multi-vector diplomacy," aiming to balance influences from China, Russia, and the West [12][14]. - The introduction of U.S. investment is not merely financial but also serves to counterbalance Chinese influence and expand Kazakhstan's diplomatic options [14][16]. Group 5: Future Implications - The competition for tungsten is indicative of a broader shift in global resource competition, moving from capital-driven to strategic control, where resource ownership equates to future industrial power [20][21]. - The situation serves as a wake-up call for Chinese companies, highlighting the necessity to adopt a comprehensive strategy that integrates funding, technology, localization, and diplomatic engagement in resource acquisition [18][21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the intertwining of power and money in American politics, particularly through the actions of Trump, highlighting significant financial maneuvers and investments during his presidency [1][12]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Financial Gains - In early 2025, Trump announced a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, which led to market volatility and significant financial gains for his inner circle, including a reported $5.7 billion profit for his son-in-law Kushner [3][5]. - The tariff policies are described as a mechanism for wealth transfer, benefiting Trump's family and allies while negatively impacting ordinary American consumers [5][12]. Group 2: International Investments and Economic Impact - During his 2025 Asia trip, Trump secured investment commitments of $550 billion from Japan and $350 billion from South Korea, framing the trip as a "super investment conference" [5][7]. - Trump's overseas ventures, particularly in the Middle East, resulted in a 650% increase in income from international licensing and partnerships, indicating a strong link between political actions and business opportunities [7][9]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency and New Economic Ventures - The article notes Trump's shift towards promoting cryptocurrency and NFTs, which have become significant sources of income for his family, with plans for a Bitcoin company to go public [9][12]. - The intertwining of political actions with emerging economic sectors like digital assets reflects a broader trend of capitalizing on new financial opportunities [9][12]. Group 4: Systemic Issues and Long-term Implications - The article suggests that the current system allows for the monetization of political power, leading to a deepening divide between the wealthy and the general populace, with potential long-term risks for American democracy [12][16]. - The transformation of political finance into a more overt system of wealth accumulation raises concerns about the erosion of trust in institutions and the implications for global governance [12][16].