Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating, but it suggests a cautious approach to short - selling methanol [1][23] Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the methanol futures market is mainly due to high port inventories and weak demand. Although domestic methanol production has rebounded recently, multiple units are scheduled for maintenance in mid - October, and Iranian plants may shut down due to gas restrictions in winter, which will relieve supply pressure. The current basis convergence also limits the downside space. However, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the decline in crude oil prices, methanol prices may be affected. In the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that Iranian plants will reduce production or shut down due to gas restrictions, which could support a rise in methanol prices [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - During the National Day holiday, the methanol market was quiet with weak prices due to limited trading. After the holiday, the macro situation was poor, and the concentrated release of crude oil price drops during the holiday led to a decline in the energy and chemical sector. The main methanol contract fell below 2,300 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since June. Spot prices in multiple regions decreased, with ports weaker than inland areas. On October 10, the import price in Taicang was 2,225 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday, and the basis in East China ports converged significantly [6] 2. Supply Side - Domestic: From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the production was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. After the National Day, production rebounded significantly, with the capacity utilization rate reaching 89.53% on October 10. According to the maintenance plan, starting from October 10, some northwest units will undergo large - scale maintenance, which may cause domestic production to decline again [7][8] - Overseas: The overseas plant operating rate has recovered significantly compared to before the holiday. As of October 10, the overseas methanol plant capacity utilization rate was 72.1%, and the weekly output exceeded 1 million tons. There were rumors that Iran may limit production or conduct maintenance due to gas supply shortages in mid - to - late October [10] 3. Demand Side - After the holiday, the restocking demand of downstream enterprises was limited. The operating rates of methanol downstream units were mixed. The MTO capacity utilization rate increased to 93.19% on October 10. However, most traditional downstream units' operating rates declined due to losses and maintenance plans [13][15] 4. Inventory - During the holiday, factory inventories increased, but the pressure was not large. After the holiday, factory inventories may decline. Port inventories increased again due to reduced提货 volume during the holiday. In September, the arrival volume was about 1.37 million tons, lower than expected, and some shipments were postponed to October. On October 10, the total social inventory of methanol was 1.5432 million tons, with port inventories at 1.8826 million tons [17] 5. Cost Side - After the holiday, coal prices rebounded. On the supply side, coal production was basically stable, but strict supervision limited production growth, and the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway's autumn inspection affected coal transportation. On the demand side, electricity demand was relatively limited, but there was some rigid restocking demand after the holiday. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term [19] 6. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza led to the withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums, and trade tensions and concerns about demand prospects also put pressure on prices. If WTI crude oil prices cannot recover above the $60/barrel mark, it will suppress the energy and chemical sector [22]