| ATA中信期货 CITIC Futures | 美以突袭伊朗影响持续,地缘驱动甲醇强势上行 | | 2026/03/03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 [2012] | | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 伊 | 投资咨询号: Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | 669号 | | ત્મ | | | | | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | 投资咨询号:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | 甲醇:受地缘突发事件影响,2026年3月2日甲醇主力合约触及涨停板。 近期中东局势变化一波三折,节后美伊形势曾一度紧张,但伴随双方谈判推进,甲醇盘面短暂回归偏弱基本面,行情于2月27日当周呈现 先扬后抑态势。然而2月2 ...

国内：2月西南气头装置有重启计划，开工有小幅上升预期； 海外：进口回归或较往年提前一个月。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：胡欣/F0299540、Z0012133/ 一德期货能源化工分析师 要点速览版 供应方面 需求方面 下游整体利润不佳，需求提升空间预计有限。 库存方面 3月沿海显著去库的可能性有所下降，未来库存压力或将持续存在。 节后甲醇期价高开高走后，于2300元/吨一线再度承压运行，主要受伊朗局势升级及自身供需偏弱影 响，呈现"强地缘，弱现实"的特点。 地缘方面 目前美伊谈判继续进行中，美国一方面敦促伊朗放弃核计划，希望通过谈判解决地区问题，另一方面则 向该地区派遣了航母、军舰和战机等，不过也不排除通过军事威慑甚至战争等手段达到目的的可能。因 此，中东地缘局势整体引而不发，这种不确定性为盘面提供了主要支撑。 供给方面 目前，国内开工处于高位水平，2月西南部分气头装置仍有重启计划，春检计划尚不明确，后期开工仍 有小幅上升预期。海外方面，伊朗2月份ZPC两套165万吨装置先后重启，整体维持7成负荷；此外 KIMIYA和SABALAN两套165万吨装置计划本周重启， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2605 expected to trade between 2,210 - 2,280 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market is likely to experience range - bound fluctuations, with the inland market entering a pre - holiday rest period and the port market facing an uncertain geopolitical situation and unchanged fundamental weakness [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to range - bound fluctuate this week. The inland market is in a pre - holiday rest period, with reduced terminal demand and sufficient supply. The port market is expected to bottom - range fluctuate before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The report also suggests observing whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military operation against Iran [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns Long Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May. - Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Short Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. - There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have declined significantly. - Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. - Some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78% to 2,207 yuan/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12% to 1,805 yuan/ton. - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract increased by 19 yuan/ton to 2,244 yuan/ton. - Spread structure: The basis of Jiangsu methanol was - 37 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The import spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton [8]. Inventory Data - As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 961,400 tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas decreased by 35,500 tons to 463,900 tons [4]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status Domestic Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some are still undetermined [57]. Overseas Plants - Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are under maintenance. For example, some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and QAFAC in Qatar is under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [58]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance from March 15 for about 45 days, while some plants in Northwest and other regions are operating normally [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output of restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production [2] - As the long holiday approaches, upstream factories continue the inventory - clearing/pre - selling strategy, and downstream enterprises make stable pre - holiday purchases. As a result, inland enterprise inventories continue to decline [2] - This week, methanol inventories at ports decreased. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 volume from mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to reduced unloading. The inventory at South China ports increased [2] - The short - term expected arrival volume of foreign vessels is likely to increase month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the提货 volume may decline, and port methanol inventories may accumulate. The extent of inventory accumulation depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume [2] - Last week, the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, the weekly average operating rate still declined. With the increase in the load of the Ningbo Fude MTO plant, the short - term operating rate of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly [2] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2279 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main methanol contract is 821,944 lots, an increase of 4,909 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 113,524 lots, an increase of 26,838 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,082, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 435 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main ports is 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price spread between China's main ports and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no month - on - month change [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 5.58 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, an increase of 2.14 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 8.05% [2] - As of February 4, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons [2] - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO plants of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continued to be shut down, and the Ningbo Fude plant restarted. After hedging, the weekly average operating rate still declined [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week. The supply side failed to provide support, downstream demand remained weak, and the market showed a regional differentiation trend. In the future, the expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [6][8][9] - The methanol price may fluctuate within a range in the future, and a short straddle strategy can be considered [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week [6][12] - Spot: The port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 - 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranged from 1,830 - 1,838 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,105 - 2,118 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34% [15] - **Downstream**: The overall downstream was stable but weak. The MTO device in Zhejiang Xingxing stopped, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, a decrease of 13.22 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 0.71% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous period. The port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.63% [22][25] - **Profit**: Last week, the profits of various methanol production processes were squeezed to different degrees. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 251.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 17.79%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 196.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.01% [28] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of domestic methanol device overhauls may be more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.87%, a decrease from last week [31] - **Downstream demand**: The MTO device will operate stably this week, and the average weekly start - up rate will decline. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rate of chlorides may decline [32][33] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises this week will be 444,100 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase this week [33] - **Price trend**: The expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased due to the fact that the production capacity loss from recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the production capacity output from recovery. With an increase in market supply, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. Inland projects continue to operate stably, and last week, inland enterprises' inventories increased, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. Against this backdrop, the weakening demand expectations in winter are not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to maintain an overall increasing trend. [2] - Last week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained good, inventories increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, demand was stable, and inventories also increased. There is an expected decrease in imports in January, and port methanol inventories may decline from their high levels. [2] - Last week, most enterprises' devices were operating stably. Due to some devices in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased slightly. In the short term, the load of MTO enterprises in East China may still decrease, but the MTO device of Qinghai Salt Lake is planned to restart, so there is an expectation of an increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2293 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 78; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 824,536 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 50,952; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for methanol is - 128,251 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,279. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,205, with a week - on - week increase of 1,557. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10. [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 362.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 38. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 262 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0471 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,800 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 430,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25,100 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 10.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.4176 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.19; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.49. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no change. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.8; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1256 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 141. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.44%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 4.61%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. [2] - As of December 31st, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. [2] - As of December 31st, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.66%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. Most enterprises' plants were operating stably, but due to some plants in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the weekly average industry operating rate decreased slightly. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Although the overall supply is relatively abundant and demand changes are limited, the methanol futures market may operate strongly due to expected supply reduction and downstream stocking expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - **Futures**: Last week, influenced by improved expectations, methanol futures showed a strong oscillation. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,160 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous week [5][11]. - **Spot**: Last week, the port methanol price was still strong, while the inland methanol price was weak, showing a regional differentiation trend. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,090 - 2,130 yuan/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, domestic methanol production continued to rise as more plants resumed production than were under maintenance. The supply - side support remained weak [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream olefin operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall downstream demand was stable but weak. The demand in the inland area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises rose, and the volume of pending orders decreased. The port methanol inventory increased significantly, with a large increase in Jiangsu [7][19][21]. - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices stopped falling, while methanol prices were still weak, and the profits of coal - to - methanol enterprises deteriorated again [7][24]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Around New Year's Day, methanol supply will remain relatively abundant. In the future, domestic and foreign methanol maintenance may increase, imports may decline, and the supply is expected to decrease [8]. - **Demand**: The change in demand is limited. Downstream enterprises have stocking expectations, and macro - policies may be introduced [8]. - **Market Trend**: The spot market may be narrowly sorted, while the futures market may operate strongly [8]. 3.4 Operation Strategy Considering the positive expectations, methanol futures may operate strongly, and investors can consider selling put options [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Wednesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The intraday price center shifted significantly up to around 15,650 yuan/ton, closing up 2.42% at 15,650 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke out of the triangular range and formed an upward breakthrough pattern [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,179 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,143 yuan/ton, closing up 0.88% at 2,172 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 38 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started an oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 444.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 439.7 yuan/barrel, closing up 0.68% at 444.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become prominent again, and the conflict between the United States and Venezuela has escalated, posing risks to the export of Venezuelan crude oil. The strengthening of geopolitical premiums has driven the oil price to rebound, and crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%. The general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week-on-week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week-on-week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises during the week drove the capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week. Currently, the shipment rhythms of enterprises vary, with most enterprises having slow shipments. Under production and sales pressure, enterprises will continue flexible production control. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, it is not ruled out that individual enterprises will conduct maintenance or reduce production [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month-on-month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year-on-year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, China's heavy truck market has sold more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.57%, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a small increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03%. In the case of dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 8.68%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week-on-week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 82.06%, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was -205 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month-on-month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a significant week-on-week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32,500 tons, and a small increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 406, a week-on-week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.843 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year-on-year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant year-on-year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 20.862 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 412.2 million barrels, a week-on-week increase of 249,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 94.8%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a small year-on-year increase of 3.0 percentage points [14]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non-commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,433 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. On the other hand, as of December 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 40,988 contracts, a significant week-on-week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | -550 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,172 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | -6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.2 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 444.7 yuan/barrel | +3.8 yuan/barrel | -36.5 yuan/barrel | -4.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1-5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all-steel tire operating rate trend, and semi-steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][21][22][24]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1-5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefins operating rate change, and coal-to-methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][52].