研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面延续跌势，最终报收 2029（-52/-2.5%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1960 元/吨，北线报价 1940 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1880 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1900 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2020 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2080 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1980 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2000 元/吨，宁波报价 2000 元/吨，广州报价 1990 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格加速下跌，进口顺挂扩大，伊朗全部正常，非伊开工小幅提升， 外盘开工重回高位，欧美市场小幅反弹，中欧价差缩小，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗 11 月已装 69 万吨，伊朗让利招标成交转好，非伊货源较多。需求端，MTO 装置开工率回 升，兴兴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The downstream performance of methanol is not strong during the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. With the MTO economy being squeezed and some devices at risk of shutting down in November, and the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 46 yuan to 2156 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 33 yuan to 2157 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 20,369 lots to 783,800 lots, and short positions increased by 17,233 lots to 1,034,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.7%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period; the overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, while that in South China increased by 2.40 million tons. The inventory of Chinese sample methanol production enterprises is 37.61 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons, a 4.36% increase from the previous period [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 21.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 91.2%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.8%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 69.7%, a 3.2% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.4%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 40.2%, a 2% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 67.9%, a 0.1% increase from the previous period [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, meeting market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The downstream of methanol shows a weak performance in the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. The import volume in September was 142.69 million tons, a 18.9% decrease from the previous period. The MTO economy is squeezed, and some devices may shut down in November. With the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol's fundamentals remain weak, and its price may continue to oscillate weakly. The decline in port methanol inventory may have limited positive impact on the spot price, and future supply and demand are unlikely to see substantial improvement [1][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the methanol weighted price was 2,286 yuan/ton, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol prices were strong due to inventory reduction, while inland prices were weak due to high supply and lack of downstream support [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% decline from the previous week [14] - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the methane chloride capacity utilization rate decreased significantly, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,491,400 tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [19][21] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed differences. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol narrowed, while the loss of gas - based methanol improved slightly [23] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1,995,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.95%, an increase from last week [30] - **Downstream Demand**: In the short term, the olefin industry is expected to maintain a high - level operation. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline [31][32][33] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to show a slight decline. The port methanol inventory is expected to rise, but the unloading speed is uncertain [33] - **Overall Outlook**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating, but it suggests a cautious approach to short - selling methanol [1][23] Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the methanol futures market is mainly due to high port inventories and weak demand. Although domestic methanol production has rebounded recently, multiple units are scheduled for maintenance in mid - October, and Iranian plants may shut down due to gas restrictions in winter, which will relieve supply pressure. The current basis convergence also limits the downside space. However, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the decline in crude oil prices, methanol prices may be affected. In the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that Iranian plants will reduce production or shut down due to gas restrictions, which could support a rise in methanol prices [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - During the National Day holiday, the methanol market was quiet with weak prices due to limited trading. After the holiday, the macro situation was poor, and the concentrated release of crude oil price drops during the holiday led to a decline in the energy and chemical sector. The main methanol contract fell below 2,300 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since June. Spot prices in multiple regions decreased, with ports weaker than inland areas. On October 10, the import price in Taicang was 2,225 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday, and the basis in East China ports converged significantly [6] 2. Supply Side - Domestic: From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the production was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. After the National Day, production rebounded significantly, with the capacity utilization rate reaching 89.53% on October 10. According to the maintenance plan, starting from October 10, some northwest units will undergo large - scale maintenance, which may cause domestic production to decline again [7][8] - Overseas: The overseas plant operating rate has recovered significantly compared to before the holiday. As of October 10, the overseas methanol plant capacity utilization rate was 72.1%, and the weekly output exceeded 1 million tons. There were rumors that Iran may limit production or conduct maintenance due to gas supply shortages in mid - to - late October [10] 3. Demand Side - After the holiday, the restocking demand of downstream enterprises was limited. The operating rates of methanol downstream units were mixed. The MTO capacity utilization rate increased to 93.19% on October 10. However, most traditional downstream units' operating rates declined due to losses and maintenance plans [13][15] 4. Inventory - During the holiday, factory inventories increased, but the pressure was not large. After the holiday, factory inventories may decline. Port inventories increased again due to reduced提货 volume during the holiday. In September, the arrival volume was about 1.37 million tons, lower than expected, and some shipments were postponed to October. On October 10, the total social inventory of methanol was 1.5432 million tons, with port inventories at 1.8826 million tons [17] 5. Cost Side - After the holiday, coal prices rebounded. On the supply side, coal production was basically stable, but strict supervision limited production growth, and the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway's autumn inspection affected coal transportation. On the demand side, electricity demand was relatively limited, but there was some rigid restocking demand after the holiday. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term [19] 6. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza led to the withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums, and trade tensions and concerns about demand prospects also put pressure on prices. If WTI crude oil prices cannot recover above the $60/barrel mark, it will suppress the energy and chemical sector [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report - In a context where both bullish and bearish factors coexist, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. The price of methanol is predicted to oscillate, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2330 - 2380 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. MA2601 is predicted to trade in the range of 2330 - 2380 [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started producing on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered its traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined [7]. - Coal - based methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current active sales are taking place [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Spot Market - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,285 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 676 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The CFR price at the main port in China is 262 US dollars/ton, also unchanged [8]. Futures Market - The futures closing price is 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous period. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,892, a decrease of 315 from the previous period [8]. Spread Structure - The basis is - 108 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous period. The import spread is - 53 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous period [8]. Operating Rates - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, a decrease of 2.39 percentage points from the previous period [8]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, an increase of 62,500 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) increased by 58,000 tons to 949,500 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, with some being short - term and others long - term [56]. Overseas Methanol Plants - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as normal operation, restarting, or under maintenance [57]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days [58].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a significant divergence between the northern and southern regions, with the northern market facing tight supply and rising prices, while the southern market is burdened by high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Northern Market Dynamics - The northern methanol market is benefiting from three key factors: seasonal maintenance leading to reduced production, increased demand due to upcoming holidays, and higher external procurement by some methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities [1][3]. - As of September 12, the inventory of major methanol producers in Northwest China was approximately 200,000 tons, which is 100,000 to 150,000 tons lower than historical levels, supporting a robust price performance [1][3]. Group 2: Southern Market Challenges - In contrast, the southern coastal methanol market is facing a significant inventory surge, with total port inventory reaching 1.5503 million tons as of September 11, surpassing the previous high of 1.4789 million tons in 2019 [2][3]. - The increase in port inventory is attributed to a combination of high import volumes and weak downstream demand, reflecting a broader trend of weak supply and demand in the industry [2][4]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to High Inventory - The surge in port inventory is primarily due to a "delivery wave" caused by delayed shipments from Iran, which were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and subsequent price reductions to clear stock [3][4]. - Additionally, stable supply from Southeast Asia and a shift in Middle Eastern methanol flows to China due to sanctions on India have further intensified the inventory pressure at ports [3][4]. Group 4: Demand Weakness and Market Outlook - Weak demand from both overseas and domestic markets has compounded the inventory issues, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries and a sluggish oil market contributing to the high inventory levels [4][5]. - Despite the current high inventory situation, analysts believe that the market may see improvements starting in November when industrial gas usage is expected to decrease, potentially leading to a seasonal inventory reduction [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market presented a pattern of significant supply - side pressure, marginal improvement but insufficient resilience on the demand side, and weak cost support, resulting in overall market pressure [6][7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season for methanol is approaching, but currently, the downstream demand has not significantly increased. Most devices are still in a state of loss and low operation, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The market may still show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September, with port inventories expected to continue increasing and prices facing certain downward pressure [8]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol still show strong supply and weak demand, and methanol prices are likely to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,348 yuan/ton, a 1.55% drop from the previous week [6][13]. - In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased significantly, and the port market was under pressure to decline. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,220 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also decreased due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the impact of low - priced Xinjiang goods [13]. Methanol Fundamental Analysis Production - From August 22 - 28, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,918,285 tons, an increase of 24,290 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The recovery volume was greater than the loss volume [15]. Downstream Demand - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry's starting rate increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 61.94%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [18][19]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 333,400 tons, a 22,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 7.27% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 217,000 tons, a 9,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.64% increase [21]. - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,299,300 tons, a 223,300 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.75% increase. Ports in different regions all had inventory accumulations [23]. Profit - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production increased, while the profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol production weakened. Gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 82.10 yuan/ton, a 44.54% increase from the previous week [25]. Methanol Trend Outlook Supply - This week, the resumption of domestic methanol devices may continue to exceed the number of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production this week will be about 1.9762 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.40%, an increase from last week [32]. Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's starting rate will continue to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; and the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase slightly [33][34]. Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. Port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - Overall, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains weak, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. In the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side shows that the olefin devices are operating stably, with an overall increase in the start - up rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2425 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 680234 lots, an increase of 5501 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108124 lots, a decrease of 875 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 284 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, an increase of 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 23.38 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, an increase of 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - The olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1027 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.26%, down 1.81 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.53%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.43%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.35%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China is 107.60 tons, an increase of 5.42 tons. East and South China ports have both accumulated inventory [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.08 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 20.74 tons, a decrease of 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.70%, a 1.45% increase [2].