Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The geopolitical conflict will determine the market fluctuation direction. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price has strong operating resilience. The cost transmission is smooth inland, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, and the upstream methanol factories are continuously destocking. The port inventory is also decreasing. If the Middle East war continues, the methanol futures and spot prices will continue to be strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction, but the correction amplitude may be limited inland. The port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3200 - 3500 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The geopolitical conflict is the decisive factor for future market trends. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly this week. The MA2605 contract is expected to operate between 3200 - 3500 [5]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced loads; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; methanol factories in the production areas have actively destocked, and current inventories are low; some downstream users are still stocking up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are shutting down for holidays, and demand for raw materials is weakening; major olefin devices at ports are shut down, and local demand is significantly weakened; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and short - term demand has decreased [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 41, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The futures closing price is 3319 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 75.62 tons, a decrease of 7.05 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 2.21 tons to 41.93 tons [5]. - **Price Changes**: The weekly increase in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 9.50%, in Shandong South is 29.87%, in Hebei is 0.00%, in Inner Mongolia is 9.67%, and in Fujian is 9.57%. The weekly increase in the futures price is 5.73% [9][11]. - **Production Profit**: The weekly increase in coal - based methanol production profit is 140 yuan/ton, in natural - gas - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton, and in coke - oven - gas - based methanol production profit is - 602 yuan/ton [22]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8][23]. - **External Market Prices**: The CFR price in China's main port is 414 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.70% from the previous week; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 655 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17.70% from the previous week [26]. - **Traditional Downstream Products**: The price of formaldehyde remains unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increases by 8.11% [33]. - **Production Profit and Load of Downstream Products**: The production profit of formaldehyde is - 403 yuan/ton, with a load of 30.98%; the production profit of dimethyl ether is - 320 yuan/ton, with a load of 9.79%; the production profit of acetic acid is 867 yuan/ton, with a load of 72.32%; the production profit of MTO is - 5248 yuan/ton, with a load of 84.18% [38][41][46][51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by plant [61]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other regions such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [62]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or operating at a low level, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, while others are operating stably [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a volatile decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical risks, import contraction, and the pace of downstream resumption. The supply side was the core support, while the demand side was significantly affected by the holiday. The cost side had limited support for methanol. In March, methanol is expected to be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [8]. - In the second quarter of 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand repair, and risk mitigation. The domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of supply repair, demand verification, inventory re - balancing, and increased macro - constraints. The price is likely to fluctuate and decline at a high level [124]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Methanol Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a unilateral market of low - level volatility and a sharp pulse - like rise in March. The main contract started at around 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, fluctuated narrowly from January to February, and soared in March, with a maximum quarterly increase of over 50% [13]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around four main lines: import contraction, high domestic supply with limited elasticity, external - strong and internal - weak demand with rigid support, and a phased relief of inventory pressure. Macro and capital factors amplified the price fluctuations [14]. 3.2 Continued Divergence of the European and American Economies and a Decline in the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Since 2026, the European and American macro - economies have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy is stable with controllable inflation and resilient employment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery with greater growth pressure [17]. - In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of converging divergence and mild recovery. The US economy is likely to remain stable, and the eurozone may experience a slight recovery [20]. 3.3 Steady and Positive Development of the Domestic Economy from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new drivers grew rapidly, and employment and prices were generally stable [33]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy is expected to continue its steady and upward trend, with the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% more firmly based [36]. 3.4 Slight Increase in China's Coal Imports from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, the domestic coal market showed a pattern of stable domestic supply, high - then - low imports, and weak prices. The coal price decline led to a downward shift in the cost line of methanol, causing the methanol futures to decline [52]. - In Q2, coal prices are likely to continue the "weak and volatile, central - downward" trend, which will continue to suppress the methanol futures [56]. 3.5 Spring Maintenance and Demand Differentiation Lead to a Structural Switch in the Supply Rhythm - In March 2026, domestic methanol device operation was characterized by concentrated spring maintenance, significant regional differentiation, and stable - to - decreasing production. The overall device start - up rate and production decreased [61]. - In Q2, domestic methanol production is expected to show a trend of a slight increase in April and rapid growth from May to June. The annual production is expected to reach 93 - 95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% - 2% [64]. 3.6 Overseas Gas Restrictions and Geopolitics Resonate, Causing a Deep Contraction in Methanol Supply - In Q1 2026, overseas methanol device operation was dominated by the Middle East, with a weak global performance. The supply tightened due to winter gas restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal maintenance [72]. - In Q1, domestic methanol imports shrank significantly. Import contraction supported the methanol price. In Q2, overseas device operation remains uncertain, and the supply is unlikely to become quickly loose [76]. 3.7 Shrinking Profitability of Coal - to - Methanol in China in March 2026 - In February 2026, the profit of domestic methanol devices was generally weak due to high costs and weak demand. In March, the profit is expected to be marginally repaired and structurally improved [91]. 3.8 The Peak Season of Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in Q2 - In March 2026, the domestic methanol downstream market entered the spring resumption peak season, with traditional demand fully recovering and olefin demand remaining stable. In Q2, the downstream demand will continue to recover, with traditional and olefin demand driving together [104]. 3.9 Summary - In Q2 2026, the domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of four - fold game. The supply will be tight with domestic production increasing and imports remaining low. The demand will enter the peak - season repair stage, and the inventory will gradually decline [124]. - The methanol supply - demand will be in a tight balance, but the price will be over - valued and repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and decline in bands [126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factor boosting methanol is the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the focus on the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is likely to continue its strong performance in the short - term, and long - position operations in methanol futures and buying methanol call options are recommended [8][9] - The price increase of methanol has led to a simultaneous increase in domestic supply and demand. The continuous geopolitical tension and the significant reduction in methanol imports will continue to be the most important factors boosting methanol in the future [7][32] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran was the main factor boosting methanol. The methanol futures continued to rise significantly. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 3,053 yuan/ton, a 10.5% increase from the previous week. The port methanol inventory decreased, supporting the coastal market. The international situation led to limited international shipping capacity and poor import expectations, strongly boosting the domestic methanol market. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market also increased, but the increase was less than that in the port market. The price in Ordos North Line ranged from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week [14] - **Downstream**: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of methanol downstream varieties showed different trends. The olefin industry's start - up increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region reaching 40.23%, a 1.28 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.49%, and it increased. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate remained flat, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate slightly decreased [17][18] - **Inventory**: As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase. The port sample inventory was 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons from the previous period, a 3.89% decrease [19][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material price increase was weaker than the methanol price increase, so the methanol production profit further strengthened. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 128.30 yuan/ton, a 270.81% increase; in Shandong, it was 247.30 yuan/ton, a 128.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 200.90 yuan/ton, a 477.30% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 442.00 yuan/ton, a 22.44% increase; and the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest was 146.00 yuan/ton, a 404.17% increase [25][26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Next week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be under maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0848 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 93.32%, with an increase in production [28] - **Downstream demand**: The MTO industry's start - up rate is expected to increase slightly. The dimethyl ether supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat. The formaldehyde supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [29][30][31][32] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 481,900 tons, a decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory may continue to decrease, and attention should be paid to the change in the提货 volume [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - On March 2, 2026, the main methanol contract hit the daily limit due to geopolitical emergencies. The short - term focus of the domestic methanol market has returned to geopolitics, and the weak fundamental pattern may change. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation, the operation dynamics of domestic coastal downstream MTO devices, and the possible de - stocking rhythm [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Disturbance - The sudden change in the Iranian situation has a significant impact on China's methanol. Iran, the world's second - largest methanol producer, has a methanol production capacity of 17.16 million tons, accounting for about 9.2% of the global capacity. In 2025, China imported over 7.92 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for over 55% of total imports and about 7% of domestic apparent consumption. After the military attack, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking methanol sea - export channels and likely disrupting device restart rhythms [2] Overseas Market - Overseas methanol's main raw material, LNG, is significantly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has led to a slowdown in logistics, pushing up gas prices in Europe and Asia, and thus increasing international methanol prices. If the closure persists, it will further stimulate gas price increases in Eurasia [2] Domestic Fundamental - Coastal methanol port inventories are still at a high level, with 1.4467 million tons in the week of February 27, 35% higher year - on - year. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, Chinese port inventories may decline in the short term. If the supply gap widens, it may affect the operation of coastal MTO devices, and inland enterprises may become the main supply alternative. The inland market has also raised prices following the coastal market [3] Market Sentiment - The sudden change in the Iranian situation has led to the collective rise of multiple varieties in the energy and chemical sector, and the market sentiment is inclined towards long - positions [3]

Supply - Domestic production is at a high level, with plans for the restart of some gas head units in the southwest in February, and a slight increase in operating rates is expected [5][17] - Overseas, Iran's two 1.65 million ton methanol plants at ZPC have restarted in February, maintaining 70% capacity; additional plants KIMIYA and SABALAN are also expected to restart soon, potentially leading to an earlier-than-usual return of imports [5][17] Demand - Overall profits in downstream sectors are poor, limiting the potential for demand growth; traditional downstream operations are gradually resuming after the holiday, but the low profitability constrains demand [6][18] Inventory - Coastal regions are maintaining high inventory levels; despite low methanol import volumes at the end of February and early March, the likelihood of significant inventory reduction in March has decreased due to the anticipated early restart of Iranian plants, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][19] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran are characterized by the US urging Iran to abandon its nuclear program while simultaneously deploying military assets to the region, creating uncertainty that supports market prices [4][16] Market Outlook - Methanol prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, which provide a certain premium, while high coastal inventories, early restarts of Iranian plants, and low downstream operating rates continue to exert pressure on supply and demand; short-term fluctuations are expected, with a need to monitor geopolitical developments and changes in methanol supply and demand [8][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2605 expected to trade between 2,210 - 2,280 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market is likely to experience range - bound fluctuations, with the inland market entering a pre - holiday rest period and the port market facing an uncertain geopolitical situation and unchanged fundamental weakness [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to range - bound fluctuate this week. The inland market is in a pre - holiday rest period, with reduced terminal demand and sufficient supply. The port market is expected to bottom - range fluctuate before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The report also suggests observing whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military operation against Iran [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns Long Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May. - Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Short Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. - There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have declined significantly. - Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. - Some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78% to 2,207 yuan/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12% to 1,805 yuan/ton. - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract increased by 19 yuan/ton to 2,244 yuan/ton. - Spread structure: The basis of Jiangsu methanol was - 37 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The import spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton [8]. Inventory Data - As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 961,400 tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas decreased by 35,500 tons to 463,900 tons [4]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status Domestic Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some are still undetermined [57]. Overseas Plants - Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are under maintenance. For example, some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and QAFAC in Qatar is under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [58]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance from March 15 for about 45 days, while some plants in Northwest and other regions are operating normally [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output of restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production [2] - As the long holiday approaches, upstream factories continue the inventory - clearing/pre - selling strategy, and downstream enterprises make stable pre - holiday purchases. As a result, inland enterprise inventories continue to decline [2] - This week, methanol inventories at ports decreased. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 volume from mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to reduced unloading. The inventory at South China ports increased [2] - The short - term expected arrival volume of foreign vessels is likely to increase month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the提货 volume may decline, and port methanol inventories may accumulate. The extent of inventory accumulation depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume [2] - Last week, the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, the weekly average operating rate still declined. With the increase in the load of the Ningbo Fude MTO plant, the short - term operating rate of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly [2] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2279 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main methanol contract is 821,944 lots, an increase of 4,909 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 113,524 lots, an increase of 26,838 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,082, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 435 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main ports is 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price spread between China's main ports and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no month - on - month change [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 5.58 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, an increase of 2.14 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 8.05% [2] - As of February 4, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons [2] - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO plants of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continued to be shut down, and the Ningbo Fude plant restarted. After hedging, the weekly average operating rate still declined [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week. The supply side failed to provide support, downstream demand remained weak, and the market showed a regional differentiation trend. In the future, the expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [6][8][9] - The methanol price may fluctuate within a range in the future, and a short straddle strategy can be considered [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the weak demand for methanol, the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted methanol closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous week [6][12] - Spot: The port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 - 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline. The price in the northern line of Ordos ranged from 1,830 - 1,838 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,105 - 2,118 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34% [15] - **Downstream**: The overall downstream was stable but weak. The MTO device in Zhejiang Xingxing stopped, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, a decrease of 13.22 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 0.71% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous period. The port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.63% [22][25] - **Profit**: Last week, the profits of various methanol production processes were squeezed to different degrees. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 251.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 17.79%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 196.60 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.01% [28] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of domestic methanol device overhauls may be more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.87%, a decrease from last week [31] - **Downstream demand**: The MTO device will operate stably this week, and the average weekly start - up rate will decline. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rate of chlorides may decline [32][33] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises this week will be 444,100 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase this week [33] - **Price trend**: The expected reduction in imports and the still-weak demand are likely to cause the methanol price to fluctuate and remain stagnant [33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].