休克疗法政策
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阿根廷比索首次突破交易区间上限,但央行否认,米莱政府外汇策略面临考验
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-17 22:28
Core Insights - The Argentine peso has breached the upper limit of the government-set trading band for the first time, prompting the central bank to intervene using foreign reserves, indicating a setback for President Milei's policies aimed at controlling inflation and stabilizing the currency [1][2] Group 1: Currency and Market Intervention - The peso depreciated nearly 0.4% against the dollar, reaching 1,474.50 pesos per dollar, surpassing the IMF-agreed trading band limit of 1,474.345 pesos [1] - The central bank sold $53 million in foreign reserves for market intervention, marking the first direct market operation since the new exchange rate framework was implemented [1][2] - The central bank later denied that the peso had breached the trading band limit, citing internal calculations that suggested a different upper limit, but market sentiment reflects concerns over the fragility of the government's foreign exchange strategy [1][2] Group 2: Policy Challenges and Economic Implications - The breach of the trading band presents a policy dilemma, as defending the band could be costly in terms of foreign reserves, with analysts suggesting that the government may need to raise the band instead [2] - The central bank's report confirmed the sale of $53 million in international reserves, highlighting the challenges of maintaining the new exchange rate framework [2] - The Milei administration has tightened foreign exchange controls, including stricter rules for banks and prohibiting certain financial transactions, in an effort to curb dollar demand and stabilize the peso [3] Group 3: Political Context and Market Sentiment - The tightening of foreign exchange controls is viewed as a response to the pressure on the peso, with analysts expressing skepticism about the sustainability of these measures amid rising electoral uncertainties [3] - The government has also increased the reserve requirements for commercial banks, which has temporarily supported the peso but added pressure to the banking system and the overall economy [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the results of provincial elections as an indicator of public acceptance of Milei's economic policies, which will influence the outlook for the upcoming national midterm elections [4]