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物流行业 2026 年度投资策略:优势出海,生态重塑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-24 11:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [15] Core Insights - The logistics industry is expected to see two core trends in 2026: "Advantage Going Abroad" and "Ecosystem Restructuring," which will present significant investment opportunities. The restructuring of supply chains is anticipated to deepen, with the acceleration of Chinese industries going abroad, driving sustained demand in emerging markets. Concurrently, the domestic market's competitive order is being restructured, pushing the industry towards high-quality development [5][10][27]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border Logistics: Order Restructuring and New Opportunities - The transition from "goods going abroad" to "capital going abroad" is underway, with foreign investment becoming a core driver of logistics demand. The standardization and replicability of processes in bulk logistics and e-commerce express delivery present explosive demand potential [11][35]. E-commerce Express Delivery Going Abroad - Chinese e-commerce platforms are expanding overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, where the e-commerce penetration rates are significantly lower than in China. The report highlights that the average package volume in Southeast Asia is about 26 items per year, and in Latin America, it is approximately 11 items per year, indicating substantial growth potential [59][64]. Bulk Logistics Going Abroad - The report discusses the "infrastructure for resources" model, where bulk logistics follows Chinese mining companies into Africa. This approach is expected to drive high growth in local freight demand and rapid expansion of road assets [11][35]. Domestic E-commerce Express: Demand-Side Reform - The report notes that the previous low-price competition in the e-commerce ecosystem is being replaced by rational competition, which is expected to improve the industry landscape. Leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are anticipated to see valuation recovery as the competitive order stabilizes [12][30]. Bulk Supply Chain: Bottoming Out and Price Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom in terms of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with signs of a cyclical turnaround. The report suggests that the easing of liquidity and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will lead to improved profitability in the sector [13][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report prioritizes investment in: 1. Non-US cross-border logistics, benefiting from the expansion of Chinese industries into emerging markets, with key targets being Jitu Express and Jiayou International [10][30]. 2. Domestic e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to see valuation adjustments [10][30]. 3. Bulk supply chains, with a recommendation to invest in companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao, as the industry is poised for a cyclical recovery [10][30].