"确定性"多点开花，业绩估值各有看点 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 | [Table_ReportType] | | --- | | 行业投资策略 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮 箱：huangan@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 陈依晗 交通运输行业助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Ta ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - High dividend yields are favorable for highway and port companies due to declining domestic interest rates, making them attractive for allocation and investment [2] - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a potential growth source in the transportation sector, particularly in the highway and bulk supply chain segments, supported by low interest rates and low valuations [3] - The rise of new energy and unmanned transportation is expected to benefit platform companies, with a focus on digital freight and ride-hailing services [4] Summary by Sections 1. Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a turning point in supply and demand by 2025, with cumulative revenue growth for airlines projected to match the increase in aircraft numbers [7] - Airlines are likely to experience a recovery in aircraft utilization hours and passenger load factors, leading to increased revenue per passenger kilometer [11] 2. Highways - The defensive value of high dividend highway companies is decreasing as the A-share index rebounds, while their investment value is increasing due to declining interest rates [27] - There is significant potential for mergers and acquisitions in the highway sector, with many listed highway companies having substantial room for asset securitization [30] - Companies like Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway are highlighted for their high return on equity and dividends [27] 3. Railways - Short-term growth in railway freight and passenger volumes is low, but there is potential for long-term growth driven by new energy vehicles and unmanned driving technologies [36] - The container transport volume in railways is expected to grow significantly, supported by various initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [42] 4. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing rapid growth in both volume and revenue, with major players like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express showing increasing profits [45] - Price competition is easing, which may present investment opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Bulk Supply Chain - Major bulk supply chain companies in China are seeing a decline in market share, but their revenues remain among the highest globally [51] - Companies like Wuzhou International and Jianfa Group are actively engaging in mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market position [54] 6. Shipping - The shipping industry is facing challenges due to potential declines in global trade volumes as a result of U.S. tariffs, which may pressure shipping rates [57] - The oil shipping sector may benefit from lower oil prices leading to increased demand for oil replenishment [63] 7. Ports - Port container throughput is expected to show resilience despite fluctuations in export growth, with stable pricing anticipated [70] - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing logistics costs, which may limit the potential for rate increases in port fees [70] 8. New Energy and Unmanned Transportation - The adoption of new energy vehicles is significantly reducing travel costs, while smart driving technologies are expected to lower labor costs in transportation [74] - Companies in the ride-hailing and digital freight sectors are projected to experience substantial growth due to these technological advancements [77]

盘前要闻 1、特朗普再变卦!威胁50%关税两天后改口：与欧盟谈判期限延长至7月9日 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与 欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。受到该消息影响，美股指期货、欧股主要股指期货早间走高。此前 特朗普建议从6月1日开始对来自欧盟的商品征收50%的关税。 2、重组新规后首单!芯片巨头海光信息拟换股吸收合并算力龙头中科曙光 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 第46届东盟峰会今日举办 5月25日晚，海光信息、中科曙光双双发布公告，正在筹划由海光信息通过向中科曙光全体A股换股股 东发行A股股票的方式换股吸收合并中科曙光，两股将于5月26日起开始停牌。根据公告，此次整合将 优化从芯片到软件、系统的产业布局。 3、英伟达：将为中国市场推出一款AI芯片，预计最快于6月开始量产 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 英伟达据报将为中国市场推出一款基于Blackwell架构的人工智能(AI)芯片，售价将大幅低于先前的H20 芯片，预计最快于6月开始量产。这将是英伟达第三次为中国市场推出符合美国监管要求的降级版芯 片。 4、国常会最新部署! ...

备、绿色发展、科技智能的业务。黑色板块将加强集成服务，拓展 区域客户，开展内部整合，推动绿色转型；能源化工板块将做强煤 炭，做大油品，做稳橡胶，做精化工，探索生物质能源；新能源板块 将加大上游镍、钴、锂等资源拓展力度，做强中游虚拟工厂模式， 丰富下游社会民生类应用场景，形成新能源全产业链模式；有色板 块将做稳不锈钢，引进铜、铝等关键矿产品和金属业务的专业团队； 再生资源板块将深入研究行业政策变化后的发展机会，开拓再生钢 铁优质客户，并探索废不锈钢、废纸、废塑料等业务；农产品业务 将稳步探索，积极培育新增长点。 2、问：国内大宗供应链市场受环境影响需求承压，部分中小型 规模的企业在退出市场。公司如何看待国内大宗供应链行业未来发 展趋势，公司有何规划？ 答：我国大宗商品供应链行业整体呈现市场空间大、参与者多、 集中度低的特点，在当前需求承压和行情下行的环境下，规模企业 因运营体系更成熟、资源配置能力更强大、优秀人才更集聚、风控 机制更完善等优势，有望进一步提升集中度。我们判断国内大宗供 应链行业未来发展趋势主要是三个方向：全球化、智能化和绿色化。 公司的企业愿景、使命、战略规划及商业计划，也都是围绕这三个 方向去 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a steady demand increase despite price reductions, maintaining a healthy dividend [1] - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, leading to operational divergence among companies, while direct-operated express companies are achieving stable growth [4][10] - The aviation sector is under pressure due to increased passenger volume but reduced ticket prices, with a slow improvement in supply-demand relationships [4][52] - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic volume, resulting in profit restoration for most leading companies [4][59] - The shipping industry is experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping under pressure from external trade policies, while oil shipping is recovering [4][59] - The shipbuilding market is facing challenges due to fluctuating demand and pricing pressures [7] - Port operations are stable, with significant growth in cargo throughput [7] - The bulk supply chain is under pressure from weak demand, but leading companies are demonstrating resilience [7][32] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations [14] - Major companies like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported business volumes of 6.78 billion, 6.08 billion, and 5.81 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 23.0%, and 26.6% [14] - The average revenue per package in Q1 2025 decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition [18] - The single-package profit for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong decreased by 25.3%, 36.7%, and 2.0% respectively [24] Aviation - The aviation sector experienced a 4.9% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in Q1 2025, reaching 186 million passengers [52] - The international passenger volume surpassed the 2019 level for the first time, indicating a recovery in international travel [52] - The average ticket price is under pressure, leading to a decline in unit revenue for major airlines [68] Highways - The highway sector is witnessing a steady recovery in traffic volume, contributing to profit growth for most leading companies [4][59] - Nine out of nineteen listed highway companies reported an increase in dividend yield year-on-year [4] Shipping - The container shipping index decreased by 12% year-on-year due to external trade uncertainties, while domestic shipping showed some recovery [4][59] - The oil shipping market is experiencing a recovery, but the bulk shipping market remains sluggish [4] Ports - Major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 4.222 billion tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.23% [7] Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is facing challenges due to weak demand, but leading companies are adapting through operational optimizations [7][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, due to their stable operations and growth potential [32]

交运整体稳健，看好物流发展 [Table_Industry] 交运 24 年度复盘及 25Q1 总结 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（深度） | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交运行业分析师 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 陈依晗 交运行业研究助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 交运 24 年度复盘及 25Q1 总结：交运整体稳 健，看好物流发展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 [Table_S [➢Table_S ...