文 | 物流进化TransLog 晓璐 目前，国内上市物流公司的年中报已披露完毕。 上半年谁的赚钱能力强，谁的真金白银多，财务数据一目了然。 然而，对于2025年来说，最大的看点是在下半年。为何？ 根据上市公司2025年中期报告数据，物流进化选取了11大细分物流赛道、共32家中国上市物流企业进行 经营性现金流净额数据分析。各大物流企业的真实"造血"能力如何？谁最有钱？通过数据，我们一探究 竟。 建发、顺丰、京东物流手握现金374亿元，多数企业现金流在10亿元内 | | 物 流 进 化 Loo Evolution | | BRE RE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 32家上市物流企业现金流 | | | | | 序号 | 细分行业 | 公司名称 | 上市地 | 2025上半年 | 2024上半年 | 同比变动 | | | | | | (亿元) | (亿元) | | | 1 | 大宗供应链 | 建发股份 | A | 178.69 | -221.12 | 180.81% | | 2 | 综合巨头 | 顺丰控股 | A | 129 ...

Group 1 - The report on overseas mutual funds indicates that as of March 31, 2025, there were 1,532 mutual funds holding A-shares with a total scale of $1.9 trillion, showing a slight decrease in both number and scale compared to previous periods [9][10][11] - The performance of overseas mutual funds investing in A-shares was notably differentiated, with active funds outperforming passive funds, achieving an average return of 0.51% and a median return of 0.28% [10] - The report highlights that overseas mutual funds increased their holdings in the home appliance, transportation, and computer sectors while reducing their investments in power equipment and new energy sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The report on Shenzhen Circuit (002916.SZ) forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 22.134 billion, 26.330 billion, and 30.087 billion yuan respectively, with net profit expected to be 3.273 billion, 4.278 billion, and 5.154 billion yuan [12] - The target market capitalization for Shenzhen Circuit in 2026 is projected to be 162.572 billion yuan, with a target price of 243.83 yuan, and the report initiates coverage with a "buy" rating [12] - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the PCB market, particularly in data center and communication sectors, with significant growth potential driven by advancements in AI and high-speed communication technologies [13][14] Group 3 - The report on Tunan Co., Ltd. (300855.SZ) indicates that the company is one of the few in China capable of mass-producing both deformed and cast high-temperature alloys, with a focus on aerospace and nuclear power applications [17][18] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 25.10% and a net profit growth rate of 25.10% from 2020 to 2024, with projected revenues of 1.258 billion yuan and net profits of 267 million yuan in 2024 [17] - Tunan's order backlog reached a historical high of 1.75 billion yuan as of the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.5% [18] Group 4 - Alibaba's self-developed AI chips are aimed at meeting its own AI inference needs, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance its AI capabilities [20][21] - The report notes that Alibaba's AI inference chip, Hanguang 800, has surpassed NVIDIA's T4 and P4 in certain performance metrics, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI chip market [20] - The report highlights the potential for growth in power supply and liquid cooling technologies as major cloud service providers increase their investment in AI chips [22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zall Smart Commerce Group (2098.HK), reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 90.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.16%, and a net profit of 69.97 million yuan, up 71.67% despite challenging external conditions [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - The agricultural products and overseas bulk commodities segments significantly contributed to revenue growth, with Zhongnongwang achieving revenue of 24.5 billion yuan, a 47.59% increase, and the World Commodity Intelligent Trading Center (CIC) reaching 32.2 billion yuan, a 161.79% increase [2] - CIC, based in Singapore, expanded its business in Southeast Asia, focusing on new energy segments and enhancing cross-border trade collaboration, resulting in a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 37.5 billion USD [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhongnongwang optimized its resource allocation and customer structure, enhancing its core competitiveness by establishing direct connections with quality sugar producers and expanding its global supply of high-quality coffee beans [3] - The company established a spice processing center in Xinjiang, adopting an innovative model that integrates smart agriculture and deep processing, thereby increasing product value and enhancing supply chain efficiency [3] Group 3: Business Transformation - Zhaogang Chain and Huashu Hui are actively transforming their business models, focusing on high-end manufacturing and green production, with Zhaogang Chain achieving breakthroughs in steel product exports to Taiwan [4] - In the plastics sector, Huashu Hui doubled its overall sales volume by expanding distribution and consignment businesses, while optimizing its trading categories and customer structure [4] Group 4: Integrated Service Capabilities - The company is advancing a new model that integrates industrial services, experiential consumption, digital trade, and supply chain services, with Han Kou Bei International Trade City becoming a key hub for national commodity supply chain integration [5] - Han Kou Bei is enhancing its logistics capabilities through smart warehousing and transportation systems, achieving seamless management of the entire logistics process [6] Group 5: Digital Transformation - The company is leveraging AI and IoT technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with Zhongnongwang launching a digital management platform for sugarcane cultivation that covers the entire supply chain [8] - The establishment of cloud factories and smart logistics systems is improving supply chain efficiency, enabling same-day delivery services in multiple regions [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The company aims to strengthen its industry advantages and digital innovations to enhance the resilience and efficiency of its supply chain, positioning itself as a key player in the ongoing industrial transformation [9]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·物流 厦门象屿（600057） 2025 年半年报点评：归母净利润同比+32.5%经营 拐点确立，关注"反内卷"催化 2025 年 08 月 27 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 459,035 | 366,671 | 374,189 | 376,598 | 389,341 | | 同比（%） | (14.70) | (20.12) | 2.05 | 0.64 | 3.38 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,574 | 1,419 | 1,854 | 2,248 | 2,593 | | 同比（%） | (40.31) | (9.86) | 30.64 | 21.30 | 15.34 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.92 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.94 | 14.36 | 10. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xiamen Xiangyu, is navigating a complex macroeconomic environment while focusing on transforming its supply chain services and enhancing operational efficiency to adapt to market changes and customer demands [3][4][5]. Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is engaged in bulk supply chain services, primarily serving manufacturing enterprises by providing integrated services such as procurement, distribution, logistics, supply chain finance, and information consulting [9]. - The company operates in various sectors, including metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and new energy, focusing on high liquidity and standardized products [10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total operating volume of over 120 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.02%. Revenue reached 203.9 billion yuan, up 0.23%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.032 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.48% increase [15]. - The return on equity was 4.99%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [15]. Industry Context - The bulk supply chain industry is facing challenges due to tariff changes, geopolitical uncertainties, and fluctuating global economic conditions, leading to increased operational difficulties for companies [4][6]. - The market is experiencing a "stable growth, weak recovery" trend, with traditional industries slowing down and new energy sectors not yet generating sufficient demand for bulk commodities [3][4]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is transitioning from a traditional trading intermediary to a comprehensive service provider, expanding its operational boundaries across the supply chain [6][7]. - Xiamen Xiangyu emphasizes a multi-faceted operational model that integrates resources, trade, logistics, services, and processing, aiming to enhance value creation and operational resilience [13][27]. International Expansion - The company has established a strong international presence, with operations in key regions such as the United States, Singapore, and Africa, and aims to diversify its trade and market layout [12][24]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a trade volume of approximately 47 million tons, with a total trade value of about 13.2 billion USD, marking a 7% year-on-year increase [24]. Technological Advancements - The company is investing in digital transformation and smart supply chain solutions, integrating AI and data analytics to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making [26][31]. - A new generation of ERP systems has been successfully implemented, covering core business processes and improving management capabilities [26]. Risk Management - Xiamen Xiangyu has established a comprehensive risk management framework that includes proactive measures to mitigate market volatility and operational risks [35][36]. - The company continuously monitors international market policies and legal changes to adapt its strategies accordingly [36].

Summary of Conference Call on Supply Chain Logistics Industry Overview - The bulk supply chain industry is transitioning from profit margin generation to diversified services, with leading companies creating differentiated value through additional services and integrated upstream and downstream offerings [1][2] - The macroeconomic downturn has led to weak demand, putting pressure on prices of agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, resulting in increased market concentration towards leading firms [1][3] Key Insights - Leading companies like Xiamen Guomao have seen an increase in market penetration, but their profitability is still affected by macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - Xiamen Guomao has improved its operational quality by optimizing its business structure and utilizing futures hedging to mitigate demand-side pressures [1][5] - The performance of bulk supply chain companies is directly influenced by commodity price trends; rising prices enhance turnover and profitability, while falling prices have the opposite effect [1][6] Financial Performance - Xiamen Guomao's gross margin has improved by eliminating low-profit businesses and increasing the proportion of high-margin products [1][5] - The company has maintained a high dividend level, with a commitment to distribute 30% of its net profit to shareholders annually, often exceeding this amount [1][8] Future Projections - Future net profit forecasts for Xiamen Guomao are 1.24 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.89 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding low price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 8.6, and 7.2 [1][9] - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical demand recovery and improvements in operational quality, indicating high investment value [1][9] Market Trends - The bulk supply chain industry is witnessing a shift from margin-based business models to diversified service offerings, with leading players expanding market share despite economic challenges [1][10] - If demand rebounds, it could significantly enhance performance elasticity for companies like Xiamen Guomao [1][11] - Investors are beginning to position themselves in cyclical recovery sectors such as chemical logistics and general supply chains, with companies like Milkway and Hongchuan Wisdom showing improved operational quality [1][12] Additional Considerations - Evaluating the operational quality of bulk supply chain companies requires a comprehensive approach, considering gross margins and futures hedging gains [1][7] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on potential demand reversals that could impact pricing and profitability [1][12]

Group 1: Company Analysis - 长光华芯 - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 94.28 million, and a significant reduction in net loss to 7.5 million [3][4] - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 28 million, 99 million, and 208 million respectively, with a target price set at 70.86 yuan based on a PE of 60.05x for 2027 [3][4] - The company has successfully launched three key products in the optical communication sector, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the context of increasing demand from AI data centers [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Transportation - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" is expected to promote deeper industry reforms, benefiting sectors such as aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations [5][6] - The aviation sector is anticipated to improve revenue management strategies, which will help mitigate excessive price competition and enhance profitability [7] - The express delivery industry is likely to see a more favorable competitive environment due to regulatory measures against "involution," which may lead to the concentration of market share among leading firms [8] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Renewable Energy - The solar energy sector is experiencing positive momentum due to new policies aimed at increasing renewable energy consumption, with silicon material prices on the rise [31][32] - The wind energy sector is expected to maintain strong installation growth, supported by long project cycles and increasing demand for offshore wind projects [35][37] - The digital transformation of the energy sector is accelerating, driven by government initiatives to enhance the integration of information technology and energy industries [38]

Group 1: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector shows a divergence in certainty, with direct express delivery focusing on performance and e-commerce express delivery focusing on valuation [22] - SF Holding's business volume has been consistently exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 31.76% in May 2025, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate [23][24] - The company's profit margin has steadily improved, with a net profit margin of approximately 3.20% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [24][34] - The e-commerce express delivery sector faces intensified price competition, which may lead to performance fluctuations, while the overall industry volume grew by 20.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][42] Group 2: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is experiencing improved supply-demand certainty, with strong demand for civil aviation travel during holidays, leading to a year-on-year increase in passenger load factor to 84.1% from January to May 2025 [4][5] - Supply constraints are evident, with limited capacity for new aircraft deliveries and high utilization rates of existing fleets, indicating a strong likelihood of supply contraction [5][6] - Ticket prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise during peak travel seasons, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a downward trend in oil prices [6][4] Group 3: Port Performance - The container throughput in ports remains resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% from January to May 2025, supported by strong export performance [7][8] - Dry bulk cargo throughput has shown signs of recovery, particularly in iron ore and coal, despite some short-term pressures [8][7] - Liquid bulk cargo, particularly crude oil, has faced demand pressures, leading to fluctuations in throughput [8] Group 4: Shipping and Chemical Products - The oil transportation sector is expected to see long-term supply increases, but demand remains uncertain, leading to potential fluctuations in freight rates [9] - Container shipping supply is gradually increasing, but short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile due to changing tariff policies [10] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is anticipated to stabilize, with leading companies expected to recover their operating volumes, despite short-term declines [11][12] - Profit margins for major supply chain companies are projected to improve, with significant increases in gross margins for key products [12][13] Group 6: Road and Rail Transport - The highway sector is gradually recovering from a low base, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in freight volume from January to April 2025 [14] - The railway sector faces challenges due to weak coal demand, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in freight volume on the Daqin Line [14]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - High dividend yields are favorable for highway and port companies due to declining domestic interest rates, making them attractive for allocation and investment [2] - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a potential growth source in the transportation sector, particularly in the highway and bulk supply chain segments, supported by low interest rates and low valuations [3] - The rise of new energy and unmanned transportation is expected to benefit platform companies, with a focus on digital freight and ride-hailing services [4] Summary by Sections 1. Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a turning point in supply and demand by 2025, with cumulative revenue growth for airlines projected to match the increase in aircraft numbers [7] - Airlines are likely to experience a recovery in aircraft utilization hours and passenger load factors, leading to increased revenue per passenger kilometer [11] 2. Highways - The defensive value of high dividend highway companies is decreasing as the A-share index rebounds, while their investment value is increasing due to declining interest rates [27] - There is significant potential for mergers and acquisitions in the highway sector, with many listed highway companies having substantial room for asset securitization [30] - Companies like Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway are highlighted for their high return on equity and dividends [27] 3. Railways - Short-term growth in railway freight and passenger volumes is low, but there is potential for long-term growth driven by new energy vehicles and unmanned driving technologies [36] - The container transport volume in railways is expected to grow significantly, supported by various initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [42] 4. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing rapid growth in both volume and revenue, with major players like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express showing increasing profits [45] - Price competition is easing, which may present investment opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Bulk Supply Chain - Major bulk supply chain companies in China are seeing a decline in market share, but their revenues remain among the highest globally [51] - Companies like Wuzhou International and Jianfa Group are actively engaging in mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market position [54] 6. Shipping - The shipping industry is facing challenges due to potential declines in global trade volumes as a result of U.S. tariffs, which may pressure shipping rates [57] - The oil shipping sector may benefit from lower oil prices leading to increased demand for oil replenishment [63] 7. Ports - Port container throughput is expected to show resilience despite fluctuations in export growth, with stable pricing anticipated [70] - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing logistics costs, which may limit the potential for rate increases in port fees [70] 8. New Energy and Unmanned Transportation - The adoption of new energy vehicles is significantly reducing travel costs, while smart driving technologies are expected to lower labor costs in transportation [74] - Companies in the ride-hailing and digital freight sectors are projected to experience substantial growth due to these technological advancements [77]

Company - Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang are planning a stock swap merger, which will optimize the industry layout from chips to software and systems [2] - Zhongke Shuguang's stock will be suspended from trading starting May 26 due to the merger announcement [2][13] - Haiguang Information will issue A-shares to all A-share shareholders of Zhongke Shuguang as part of the merger [2] Industry - Nvidia is set to launch a new AI chip for the Chinese market based on the Blackwell architecture, expected to start mass production as early as June [3] - The new AI chip will be priced significantly lower than the previous H20 chip, marking Nvidia's third release of a downgraded chip that complies with U.S. regulations for China [3] - The State Council of China has approved a green low-carbon development action plan for the manufacturing industry for 2025-2027, aiming to promote deep green transformation of traditional industries [4] - The plan includes measures to enhance ecological protection compensation mechanisms and accelerate the green transformation of key industries [4]