交通运输行业 标配（维持） 周期拐点渐显 交通运输行业 2026 年投资策略 2025 年 12 月 30 日 推荐 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 交通运输指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 展望2026年：交通运输行业整体与宏观环境关联性较大，2025年整 体表现低迷，跑输沪深300指数。细分板块中，铁路公路等红利板块 因风格切换走弱，物流、航空机场、航运港口等行业下半年受到反内 卷及外需等因素提振，但仍跑输大盘指数。展望2026年，反内卷及大 基建的带动作用下内需有望迎来改善，推荐关注（1）反内卷带来的 国内快递竞争格局改善与受益于上游价格回升的大宗供应链。（2） 公商务及休闲需求增长，有望重回盈利的航空机场。（3）油运高景气 的全球 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨航空货运与物流Ⅲ ——物流行业 2026 年度投资策略 [Table_Title] 优势出海，生态重塑 [Table_Summary] 展望 2026 年，我们认为"优势出海"与"生态重塑"将成为物流产业的两大核心趋势：一方 面，供应链重构逻辑有望持续深化，中国优势产业出海进程有望加速，带动新兴市场物流需求 持续景气。另一方面，国内市场竞争秩序正在重构，推动行业向高质量发展转型。结合各子板 块景气度与周期位置，我们优先推荐：1）非美跨境物流出海：跟随中国优势产业向新兴市场拓 展，分享出海景气红利。 2）国内电商快递：伴随电商产业生态优化和竞争秩序重构，行业格 局有望改善，龙头公司估值具备重估空间。3）大宗供应链：需求端触底信号明确，美联储降息 叠加"反内卷"政策发力，行业周期反转在即。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 33 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil tanker sector, indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, reaching a peak of $126,000 per day on November 21, 2025, and slightly decreasing to $122,000 per day by November 28, 2025 [1][11]. - The report anticipates sustained demand for oil transportation due to global crude oil production increases and ongoing sanctions affecting non-compliant oil trade [2][22]. - The supply-side dynamics remain stable, with stricter environmental policies countering the limited new ship deliveries [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with an average ticket price rise of 3.0% [8][27]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 12.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [43][47]. - The report notes a slight decline in the transportation sector, with a 0.5% drop in the transportation index, underperforming against the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [62][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity and dividend value, particularly in the oil and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Specific recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [26][22].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "strong, change, and new" in the 2026 strategy for the trading industry, focusing on both external and internal demand, particularly through consumer exports and resource trading [1][3] Group 1: Industry Review and Trends - In 2025, the trading industry benefited from national subsidies, leading to a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in discretionary categories, with growth rates of 18-21% for various consumer goods [3][14] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a recovery in production profits, with industrial profits showing over 20% year-on-year growth in August and September [3][23] - The rise of new consumption patterns, the impact of trade wars on consumer exports, and the significant increase in gold prices present unique opportunities for the industry [3][24][26] Group 2: Future Directions for the Trading Industry - Consumer exports and trade security are expected to play a crucial role in China's economy, with a focus on building "Chinese brands" globally [3][28] - The gold and jewelry retail sector is anticipated to remain a key area of focus in 2026, despite high gold prices, as consumer habits typically lag behind price changes [3][29] - The bulk trading sector is at a turning point, with potential for the emergence of large Chinese trading groups similar to Japan's trading houses [3][30] - Retail and tourism sectors are expected to undergo significant changes and reforms, providing marginal catalysts for growth [3][31] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Strong investment opportunities include companies involved in consumer exports such as Xiaoshangcheng, Anker Innovations, and Luguan Technology, as well as gold retail brands like Luk Fook Holdings and Chow Tai Fook [3][33] - Companies undergoing changes in trading cycles and brand development, such as Xiamen Xiangyu and Yonghui Superstores, are also recommended [3][34] - New consumption trends represented by brands like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart are highlighted as potential growth areas [3][35] - Companies with low valuations, including Huazhu Group and Miniso, are suggested for consideration [3][36] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing high growth, with exports reaching 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [42] - The sector's growth is driven by China's supply chain advantages and increasing e-commerce penetration in overseas markets [42][45] - Future growth in cross-border e-commerce is expected to be fueled by the branding of supply chains and the continued rise of overseas e-commerce platforms [42][45] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is fragmented, with leading companies holding less than 2% market share, indicating significant growth potential [54] - The market concentration in the bulk supply chain sector is increasing, with leading companies showing continuous growth [54][58] - As domestic manufacturing becomes more specialized, the advantages of leading supply chain companies in terms of scale and efficiency are expected to enhance their market share [58]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that the highway sector is expected to maintain resilience in 2026, with high dividend configurations being a preferred investment direction. The port industry is anticipated to shift from a single container-driven growth model to a dual-wheel structure of stable container growth (5%-8%) and a recovery in bulk cargo (2%-5%) by 2026, with stable pricing expected. There are strategic layout opportunities for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that focus on dividends and returning to growth expectations in the coming year [1]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is viewed as a preferred option for stable asset allocation due to low valuations and high dividends, with expected dividend yields around 5% for leading highway companies in 2026. Notable companies include Sichuan Chengyu (5.6%), Shandong Highway (5.0%), and Anhui Wantong Highway (5.0%), with higher yields for H-shares [2]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests strong performance driven by stable volume and pricing, alongside significant cost reduction opportunities. Key factors include potential optimization of toll policies and a favorable interest rate environment that could alleviate operational pressures for highway companies [2]. - High dividend characteristics are expected to remain stable in 2026, with clear three-year return plans from leading companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway [2]. Port Sector - The port sector is entering a strategic value era, transitioning from a perception of cyclical capacity assets to being recognized as global supply chain security hubs. This shift is driven by geopolitical factors and the need for strategic asset control [3]. - The industry is expected to see stable throughput and pricing in 2026, with a dual growth model of container stability and bulk cargo recovery. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to be 37.46%, indicating significant potential for increases [3]. Railway Sector - Passenger transport is expected to see steady growth, with flexible pricing mechanisms in place. Freight transport is also showing signs of improvement, particularly in coal and other cargo types [4][5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is poised for a new growth phase in 2026, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu leading the way in transformation logic focused on profit margin enhancement and investor returns. The operational environment is recovering, with strong performance trends evident since 2025 [6][7]. - Strategic layout opportunities exist for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that emphasize dividends and growth expectations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company continues to favor A/H share transportation assets, highlighting the importance of industry logic and valuation elasticity. Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway for their stable growth and high dividends, as well as other notable companies in the highway and port sectors [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the bulk supply chain industry [12] Core Viewpoints - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. Historical data shows a positive correlation between the profits of bulk supply chain companies and PPI, indicating that profits tend to rise in inflationary environments. Since July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has been implemented, driving improvements in PPI growth rates [2][6][28] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Xiamen Xiangyu, Wuchan Zhongda, and Jianfa Co., have actively adjusted their business strategies and strengthened risk management, with their supply chain business profits turning positive year-on-year in Q3. The combination of liquidity easing and global supply chain restructuring, along with the steady advancement of domestic policies, suggests that the cyclical turning point for certain bulk commodities is gradually approaching, with clearer signals of profit improvement in the sector [2][6][42] Summary by Sections Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain industry is driven by capital, where the scale of business is determined by the amount of capital and turnover efficiency significantly impacts profitability. Macro demand is a crucial variable affecting trade turnover demand. The industry is currently at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in commodity prices, with indices for metals, energy, and agricultural products showing year-on-year increases of 4.5%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively in Q3 2025 [6][28][34] - Leading companies are accelerating their globalization efforts and integrating resources across the entire supply chain to enhance market share both domestically and internationally. Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao are maintaining favorable dividend policies, providing a safety net for investors [6][34][42] Transportation Chain - Domestic passenger traffic continues to grow, with a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 19% increase in international passenger volume as of November 14. The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor has increased by 4.8 percentage points [7][43][48] - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship in the domestic market continues to improve, with oil prices rising by 1.0% year-on-year. The outlook for the industry suggests that revenue is expected to improve marginally, driven by tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][48] Shipping - The oil shipping sector remains buoyant, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 26.2% to $120,000 per day. The overall tight capacity and OPEC+ production increases are expected to sustain the positive outlook for oil shipping. Conversely, the container shipping sector has seen a decline, with the SCFI index dropping by 2.9% to 1,451 points [8][13] - The report recommends companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for investment, given the favorable conditions in the oil shipping market [8][42] Logistics - During the 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the average daily express delivery volume reached 634 million packages, a 9% year-on-year increase. The air freight price index has shown a slight increase as the cross-border e-commerce peak season approaches [9][14] - The report suggests focusing on companies like SF Holding, which is entering a phase of absolute return, and Xiamen Xiangyu, which is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and strong dividend capabilities [9][42]

Summary of Xiamen Xiangyu Conference Call Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is a leading player in China's bulk supply chain industry, primarily engaged in metal minerals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products, with annual revenue stable at approximately 400 billion RMB, having grown nearly tenfold over the past decade, benefiting from the structural trend of industry leader concentration [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2023-2024, Xiamen Xiangyu experienced a revenue decline of 15%-20%, but significant growth in volume and revenue was observed in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in the industry fundamentals [2][5] - The net profit for Q3 2023 reached 610.1 million RMB, marking a new quarterly profit high since 2023, with non-recurring net profit exceeding 800 million RMB, also a recent high, indicating a clear turning point in profitability [3][5] - From 2025 onwards, quarterly profits have consistently exceeded 500 million RMB, with Q3 2025 achieving 610.1 million RMB [5] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Xiamen Xiangyu's strong logistics system positions it as one of the largest logistics companies in China, frequently ranking among the top logistics firms, which provides a significant advantage in meeting the lean production demands of downstream enterprises [4][7] - The company has implemented internal governance improvements, including equity incentives and employee motivation mechanisms, which contribute to its long-term competitive advantages [4][7] Future Outlook - The bulk supply chain industry is expected to remain stable, but the shift towards lean production will increase demand for leading supply chain companies, potentially enhancing market share for Xiamen Xiangyu [6] - Manufacturing sector profits are expected to recover, further boosting Xiamen Xiangyu's profitability [6] - Profit projections for 2025 suggest a potential increase to over 2.15 billion RMB, representing a 50% year-on-year growth, with an expected organic growth rate of over 10% in the next two years [2][6] - Current market valuation is approximately 11 times this year's earnings and about 10 times next year's earnings, with a stable dividend yield of 4%-4.5%, indicating good growth and profitability prospects [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, emphasizing the timely allocation of transportation dividend assets [1]. Core Insights - The resilience of highway performance is highlighted, with a notable inflection point in bulk commodity performance. The report indicates that the transportation sector is currently experiencing a favorable investment environment [1]. Summary by Sections Highway: Stable Growth in Toll Revenue and Resilient Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall toll revenue of listed highway companies remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][7]. - The net profit growth rate for the highway sector in Q3 2025 was 7.1%, with notable performers including Ganyue Expressway (+64.7%) and Zhongyuan Expressway (+43.8%) [10][11]. - Current dividend yields for highway companies as of October 31, 2025, show Sichuan Chengyu at 5.1%, followed by Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway at 4.5% each [17][18]. Port: Slight Recovery in Bulk Cargo and Mixed Overall Performance - In Q3 2025, the total cargo throughput of national ports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 5.2% [19][21]. - The port industry achieved a net profit of 97.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with Liaoport Co. leading in performance growth at +37.5% for the first three quarters [25][27]. - Current dividend yields for major ports include Tangshan Port at 5.0% and Qingdao Port at 3.7% [17][18]. Railway: Improvement in Q3 Performance - The railway sector showed a sequential improvement in Q3 2025, with key companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway reporting a net profit of 39.86 billion yuan, up 8.96% year-on-year [11][12]. - Current dividend yields for railway companies include Daqin Railway at 4.7% and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway at 2.3% [17][18]. Bulk Supply Chain: Continuous Recovery in Operating Environment - Xiamen Xiangyu reported a significant net profit increase of 443.17% in Q3 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [4][28]. - Xiamen Guomao turned profitable in Q3 2025, reflecting a stabilization in operations despite a year-on-year decline of 18.94% in the first three quarters [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for A/H shares in transportation dividend assets, emphasizing the importance of industrial logic and valuation elasticity [4]. - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wuhu Expressway for highways, and Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port for ports, highlighting their strong dividend yields and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 84% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by growth in both volume and revenue from bulk commodity operations [1][7] - The "anti-involution" policy is contributing to a recovery in the industry, with the company's core business seeing a dual increase in both transaction volume and revenue [7] - The company has improved its financial structure through a successful private placement and enhanced operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in financial costs and an increase in profit margins [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 316.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 83.6% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 112.9 billion yuan, representing a 19.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit soared to 600 million yuan, a staggering 443% increase year-on-year [7] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 2.29% and 0.74%, respectively, both showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.17 billion, 2.40 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 10%, and 10% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.76 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.87 based on the closing price on October 31 [1][7]

Core Insights - The logistics industry in China is undergoing significant changes due to the government's "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to reshape competition dynamics in the sector [1][2] - The financial performance of logistics companies in the first half of 2025 reveals varying cash flow capabilities, with a focus on operational efficiency and service quality becoming crucial for sustainable growth [1][3] Financial Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 32 listed logistics companies reported a total operating cash flow of 586.42 billion yuan, with 23 companies showing positive cash flow and 9 companies reporting negative cash flow totaling -66.21 billion yuan [5][8] - The top three companies by cash flow are: - Jianfa Co., Ltd. with 178.69 billion yuan, showing a 180.81% increase from -221.12 billion yuan in the previous year [8][25] - SF Express with 129.37 billion yuan, down 5.72% from 137.22 billion yuan [8][19] - JD Logistics with 65.69 billion yuan, down 11.02% from 73.82 billion yuan [8][19] Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery and air freight sectors demonstrated stronger cash flow performance, with ZTO Express leading the express sector with 45.31 billion yuan, while Eastern Airlines Logistics achieved 28.15 billion yuan in air freight [17][22] - The contract logistics sector, while having the largest sample size, showed mixed results, with only two out of nine companies reporting positive cash flow [26][27] Challenges and Opportunities - Companies like Kuaigou Dache continue to struggle with negative cash flow, exacerbated by ongoing operational losses, highlighting the need for effective financial management [10][13] - The logistics industry is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency, with companies that can adapt to this trend likely to benefit in the long term [28]