证券研究报告·行业深度报告·商贸零售 商社行业2026年度策略： 强&变&新-外需与内需——消费出海与资源商贸 吴劲草 首席证券分析师 S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 石旖瑄 证券分析师 S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn xiy@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025年11月23日 阳靖 证券分析师 郗越 证券分析师 S0600524080008 张家璇 证券分析师 S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 王琳婧 证券分析师 S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 摘要 2 ❑ 复盘2025年商社行业： ● 国补刺激+低基数下，可选品实现修复。2025年1-10月，在国补带动下，限额以上体育娱乐、家电音像、文化办公、家具、通讯器材等可选品品类均实现 18~21%的高增速；金银珠宝类受益于金价上涨，有较大的增幅；服装、化妆品、日用品等可选消费品也实现4%或以上的增速。分消费类型看，商品零 售好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that the highway sector is expected to maintain resilience in 2026, with high dividend configurations being a preferred investment direction. The port industry is anticipated to shift from a single container-driven growth model to a dual-wheel structure of stable container growth (5%-8%) and a recovery in bulk cargo (2%-5%) by 2026, with stable pricing expected. There are strategic layout opportunities for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that focus on dividends and returning to growth expectations in the coming year [1]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is viewed as a preferred option for stable asset allocation due to low valuations and high dividends, with expected dividend yields around 5% for leading highway companies in 2026. Notable companies include Sichuan Chengyu (5.6%), Shandong Highway (5.0%), and Anhui Wantong Highway (5.0%), with higher yields for H-shares [2]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests strong performance driven by stable volume and pricing, alongside significant cost reduction opportunities. Key factors include potential optimization of toll policies and a favorable interest rate environment that could alleviate operational pressures for highway companies [2]. - High dividend characteristics are expected to remain stable in 2026, with clear three-year return plans from leading companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway [2]. Port Sector - The port sector is entering a strategic value era, transitioning from a perception of cyclical capacity assets to being recognized as global supply chain security hubs. This shift is driven by geopolitical factors and the need for strategic asset control [3]. - The industry is expected to see stable throughput and pricing in 2026, with a dual growth model of container stability and bulk cargo recovery. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to be 37.46%, indicating significant potential for increases [3]. Railway Sector - Passenger transport is expected to see steady growth, with flexible pricing mechanisms in place. Freight transport is also showing signs of improvement, particularly in coal and other cargo types [4][5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is poised for a new growth phase in 2026, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu leading the way in transformation logic focused on profit margin enhancement and investor returns. The operational environment is recovering, with strong performance trends evident since 2025 [6][7]. - Strategic layout opportunities exist for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that emphasize dividends and growth expectations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company continues to favor A/H share transportation assets, highlighting the importance of industry logic and valuation elasticity. Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway for their stable growth and high dividends, as well as other notable companies in the highway and port sectors [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the bulk supply chain industry [12] Core Viewpoints - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. Historical data shows a positive correlation between the profits of bulk supply chain companies and PPI, indicating that profits tend to rise in inflationary environments. Since July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has been implemented, driving improvements in PPI growth rates [2][6][28] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Xiamen Xiangyu, Wuchan Zhongda, and Jianfa Co., have actively adjusted their business strategies and strengthened risk management, with their supply chain business profits turning positive year-on-year in Q3. The combination of liquidity easing and global supply chain restructuring, along with the steady advancement of domestic policies, suggests that the cyclical turning point for certain bulk commodities is gradually approaching, with clearer signals of profit improvement in the sector [2][6][42] Summary by Sections Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain industry is driven by capital, where the scale of business is determined by the amount of capital and turnover efficiency significantly impacts profitability. Macro demand is a crucial variable affecting trade turnover demand. The industry is currently at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in commodity prices, with indices for metals, energy, and agricultural products showing year-on-year increases of 4.5%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively in Q3 2025 [6][28][34] - Leading companies are accelerating their globalization efforts and integrating resources across the entire supply chain to enhance market share both domestically and internationally. Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao are maintaining favorable dividend policies, providing a safety net for investors [6][34][42] Transportation Chain - Domestic passenger traffic continues to grow, with a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 19% increase in international passenger volume as of November 14. The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor has increased by 4.8 percentage points [7][43][48] - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship in the domestic market continues to improve, with oil prices rising by 1.0% year-on-year. The outlook for the industry suggests that revenue is expected to improve marginally, driven by tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][48] Shipping - The oil shipping sector remains buoyant, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 26.2% to $120,000 per day. The overall tight capacity and OPEC+ production increases are expected to sustain the positive outlook for oil shipping. Conversely, the container shipping sector has seen a decline, with the SCFI index dropping by 2.9% to 1,451 points [8][13] - The report recommends companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for investment, given the favorable conditions in the oil shipping market [8][42] Logistics - During the 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the average daily express delivery volume reached 634 million packages, a 9% year-on-year increase. The air freight price index has shown a slight increase as the cross-border e-commerce peak season approaches [9][14] - The report suggests focusing on companies like SF Holding, which is entering a phase of absolute return, and Xiamen Xiangyu, which is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and strong dividend capabilities [9][42]

Summary of Xiamen Xiangyu Conference Call Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is a leading player in China's bulk supply chain industry, primarily engaged in metal minerals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products, with annual revenue stable at approximately 400 billion RMB, having grown nearly tenfold over the past decade, benefiting from the structural trend of industry leader concentration [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2023-2024, Xiamen Xiangyu experienced a revenue decline of 15%-20%, but significant growth in volume and revenue was observed in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in the industry fundamentals [2][5] - The net profit for Q3 2023 reached 610.1 million RMB, marking a new quarterly profit high since 2023, with non-recurring net profit exceeding 800 million RMB, also a recent high, indicating a clear turning point in profitability [3][5] - From 2025 onwards, quarterly profits have consistently exceeded 500 million RMB, with Q3 2025 achieving 610.1 million RMB [5] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Xiamen Xiangyu's strong logistics system positions it as one of the largest logistics companies in China, frequently ranking among the top logistics firms, which provides a significant advantage in meeting the lean production demands of downstream enterprises [4][7] - The company has implemented internal governance improvements, including equity incentives and employee motivation mechanisms, which contribute to its long-term competitive advantages [4][7] Future Outlook - The bulk supply chain industry is expected to remain stable, but the shift towards lean production will increase demand for leading supply chain companies, potentially enhancing market share for Xiamen Xiangyu [6] - Manufacturing sector profits are expected to recover, further boosting Xiamen Xiangyu's profitability [6] - Profit projections for 2025 suggest a potential increase to over 2.15 billion RMB, representing a 50% year-on-year growth, with an expected organic growth rate of over 10% in the next two years [2][6] - Current market valuation is approximately 11 times this year's earnings and about 10 times next year's earnings, with a stable dividend yield of 4%-4.5%, indicating good growth and profitability prospects [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, emphasizing the timely allocation of transportation dividend assets [1]. Core Insights - The resilience of highway performance is highlighted, with a notable inflection point in bulk commodity performance. The report indicates that the transportation sector is currently experiencing a favorable investment environment [1]. Summary by Sections Highway: Stable Growth in Toll Revenue and Resilient Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall toll revenue of listed highway companies remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][7]. - The net profit growth rate for the highway sector in Q3 2025 was 7.1%, with notable performers including Ganyue Expressway (+64.7%) and Zhongyuan Expressway (+43.8%) [10][11]. - Current dividend yields for highway companies as of October 31, 2025, show Sichuan Chengyu at 5.1%, followed by Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway at 4.5% each [17][18]. Port: Slight Recovery in Bulk Cargo and Mixed Overall Performance - In Q3 2025, the total cargo throughput of national ports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 5.2% [19][21]. - The port industry achieved a net profit of 97.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with Liaoport Co. leading in performance growth at +37.5% for the first three quarters [25][27]. - Current dividend yields for major ports include Tangshan Port at 5.0% and Qingdao Port at 3.7% [17][18]. Railway: Improvement in Q3 Performance - The railway sector showed a sequential improvement in Q3 2025, with key companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway reporting a net profit of 39.86 billion yuan, up 8.96% year-on-year [11][12]. - Current dividend yields for railway companies include Daqin Railway at 4.7% and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway at 2.3% [17][18]. Bulk Supply Chain: Continuous Recovery in Operating Environment - Xiamen Xiangyu reported a significant net profit increase of 443.17% in Q3 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [4][28]. - Xiamen Guomao turned profitable in Q3 2025, reflecting a stabilization in operations despite a year-on-year decline of 18.94% in the first three quarters [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for A/H shares in transportation dividend assets, emphasizing the importance of industrial logic and valuation elasticity [4]. - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wuhu Expressway for highways, and Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port for ports, highlighting their strong dividend yields and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 84% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by growth in both volume and revenue from bulk commodity operations [1][7] - The "anti-involution" policy is contributing to a recovery in the industry, with the company's core business seeing a dual increase in both transaction volume and revenue [7] - The company has improved its financial structure through a successful private placement and enhanced operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in financial costs and an increase in profit margins [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 316.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 83.6% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 112.9 billion yuan, representing a 19.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit soared to 600 million yuan, a staggering 443% increase year-on-year [7] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 2.29% and 0.74%, respectively, both showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.17 billion, 2.40 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 10%, and 10% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.76 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.87 based on the closing price on October 31 [1][7]

Core Insights - The logistics industry in China is undergoing significant changes due to the government's "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to reshape competition dynamics in the sector [1][2] - The financial performance of logistics companies in the first half of 2025 reveals varying cash flow capabilities, with a focus on operational efficiency and service quality becoming crucial for sustainable growth [1][3] Financial Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 32 listed logistics companies reported a total operating cash flow of 586.42 billion yuan, with 23 companies showing positive cash flow and 9 companies reporting negative cash flow totaling -66.21 billion yuan [5][8] - The top three companies by cash flow are: - Jianfa Co., Ltd. with 178.69 billion yuan, showing a 180.81% increase from -221.12 billion yuan in the previous year [8][25] - SF Express with 129.37 billion yuan, down 5.72% from 137.22 billion yuan [8][19] - JD Logistics with 65.69 billion yuan, down 11.02% from 73.82 billion yuan [8][19] Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery and air freight sectors demonstrated stronger cash flow performance, with ZTO Express leading the express sector with 45.31 billion yuan, while Eastern Airlines Logistics achieved 28.15 billion yuan in air freight [17][22] - The contract logistics sector, while having the largest sample size, showed mixed results, with only two out of nine companies reporting positive cash flow [26][27] Challenges and Opportunities - Companies like Kuaigou Dache continue to struggle with negative cash flow, exacerbated by ongoing operational losses, highlighting the need for effective financial management [10][13] - The logistics industry is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency, with companies that can adapt to this trend likely to benefit in the long term [28]

Group 1 - The report on overseas mutual funds indicates that as of March 31, 2025, there were 1,532 mutual funds holding A-shares with a total scale of $1.9 trillion, showing a slight decrease in both number and scale compared to previous periods [9][10][11] - The performance of overseas mutual funds investing in A-shares was notably differentiated, with active funds outperforming passive funds, achieving an average return of 0.51% and a median return of 0.28% [10] - The report highlights that overseas mutual funds increased their holdings in the home appliance, transportation, and computer sectors while reducing their investments in power equipment and new energy sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The report on Shenzhen Circuit (002916.SZ) forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 22.134 billion, 26.330 billion, and 30.087 billion yuan respectively, with net profit expected to be 3.273 billion, 4.278 billion, and 5.154 billion yuan [12] - The target market capitalization for Shenzhen Circuit in 2026 is projected to be 162.572 billion yuan, with a target price of 243.83 yuan, and the report initiates coverage with a "buy" rating [12] - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the PCB market, particularly in data center and communication sectors, with significant growth potential driven by advancements in AI and high-speed communication technologies [13][14] Group 3 - The report on Tunan Co., Ltd. (300855.SZ) indicates that the company is one of the few in China capable of mass-producing both deformed and cast high-temperature alloys, with a focus on aerospace and nuclear power applications [17][18] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 25.10% and a net profit growth rate of 25.10% from 2020 to 2024, with projected revenues of 1.258 billion yuan and net profits of 267 million yuan in 2024 [17] - Tunan's order backlog reached a historical high of 1.75 billion yuan as of the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.5% [18] Group 4 - Alibaba's self-developed AI chips are aimed at meeting its own AI inference needs, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance its AI capabilities [20][21] - The report notes that Alibaba's AI inference chip, Hanguang 800, has surpassed NVIDIA's T4 and P4 in certain performance metrics, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI chip market [20] - The report highlights the potential for growth in power supply and liquid cooling technologies as major cloud service providers increase their investment in AI chips [22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zall Smart Commerce Group (2098.HK), reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 90.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.16%, and a net profit of 69.97 million yuan, up 71.67% despite challenging external conditions [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - The agricultural products and overseas bulk commodities segments significantly contributed to revenue growth, with Zhongnongwang achieving revenue of 24.5 billion yuan, a 47.59% increase, and the World Commodity Intelligent Trading Center (CIC) reaching 32.2 billion yuan, a 161.79% increase [2] - CIC, based in Singapore, expanded its business in Southeast Asia, focusing on new energy segments and enhancing cross-border trade collaboration, resulting in a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 37.5 billion USD [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhongnongwang optimized its resource allocation and customer structure, enhancing its core competitiveness by establishing direct connections with quality sugar producers and expanding its global supply of high-quality coffee beans [3] - The company established a spice processing center in Xinjiang, adopting an innovative model that integrates smart agriculture and deep processing, thereby increasing product value and enhancing supply chain efficiency [3] Group 3: Business Transformation - Zhaogang Chain and Huashu Hui are actively transforming their business models, focusing on high-end manufacturing and green production, with Zhaogang Chain achieving breakthroughs in steel product exports to Taiwan [4] - In the plastics sector, Huashu Hui doubled its overall sales volume by expanding distribution and consignment businesses, while optimizing its trading categories and customer structure [4] Group 4: Integrated Service Capabilities - The company is advancing a new model that integrates industrial services, experiential consumption, digital trade, and supply chain services, with Han Kou Bei International Trade City becoming a key hub for national commodity supply chain integration [5] - Han Kou Bei is enhancing its logistics capabilities through smart warehousing and transportation systems, achieving seamless management of the entire logistics process [6] Group 5: Digital Transformation - The company is leveraging AI and IoT technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with Zhongnongwang launching a digital management platform for sugarcane cultivation that covers the entire supply chain [8] - The establishment of cloud factories and smart logistics systems is improving supply chain efficiency, enabling same-day delivery services in multiple regions [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The company aims to strengthen its industry advantages and digital innovations to enhance the resilience and efficiency of its supply chain, positioning itself as a key player in the ongoing industrial transformation [9]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·物流 厦门象屿（600057） 2025 年半年报点评：归母净利润同比+32.5%经营 拐点确立，关注"反内卷"催化 2025 年 08 月 27 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 459,035 | 366,671 | 374,189 | 376,598 | 389,341 | | 同比（%） | (14.70) | (20.12) | 2.05 | 0.64 | 3.38 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,574 | 1,419 | 1,854 | 2,248 | 2,593 | | 同比（%） | (40.31) | (9.86) | 30.64 | 21.30 | 15.34 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.92 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.94 | 14.36 | 10. ...