Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current ethylene glycol market is in a game between weak reality and strong cost. The rapid increase in port inventories and the lack of improvement in downstream demand continue to suppress the upside price space, while the widespread deep losses in production processes increase the resistance to further price declines. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of device maintenance dynamics caused by low valuations and the polyester peak - season expectations on market sentiment. If port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of the price breaking through the cost support downward [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract dropped slightly for two consecutive days, reaching 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. The East China spot price also weakened, reaching 4,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 10 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market has relatively stronger support for futures, but the absolute price is still under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton, suggesting a pessimistic medium - to - short - term supply - demand outlook [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract significantly shrank. On the 8th, the trading volume decreased by 36,000 lots to 80,700 lots, a decline of 30.99%, and the open interest decreased by 11,500 lots to 205,300 lots, indicating obvious signs of capital withdrawal and a shift in market trading sentiment towards caution [2]. - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.3%, with the operating loads of oil - based (66.15%), coal - based (56.45%), and methanol - based (62.43%) plants remaining unchanged. All production processes continued to operate at a loss, with coal - based profits remaining at - 234 yuan/ton, and losses of 88.51 US dollars/ton, 703.99 yuan/ton, and 1,165.23 yuan/ton for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based processes respectively. Cost pressure limited supply elasticity [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal textile demand, and combined with the seasonal weakening of foreign trade orders, downstream procurement willingness for ethylene glycol was mainly rigid, making it difficult to drive inventory digestion [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port climbed to 485,700 tons, a significant weekly increase of 59,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.6% (52,000 tons), highlighting the port inventory accumulation pressure. Although the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons compared to the previous period, the slowdown in port shipments led to an unexpected inventory accumulation speed, and the supply - demand contradiction continued to accumulate [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased from 4,430 yuan/ton on the 7th to 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The East China spot price decreased from 4,465 yuan/ton to 4,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.22% [2][5]. - **Spreads**: The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [3][5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons, a weekly increase of 13.69%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, an increase of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [3][5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 8, the focus of the East China US dollar market remained stagnant, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were reported [6]. - On August 8, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [6]. - On August 8, the mainstream market adjusted downward, the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered, and the market trading atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,500 yuan/ton for delivery [6]. - On August 8, the meeting between the US and Russia made progress, international oil prices continued to decline, ethylene glycol supply gradually returned, market sentiment turned bearish, and the market price adjusted downward, with the current East China price negotiated around 4,455 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the East China main port (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11][14][16][18].