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行业周报:白酒筑底,新消费领航-20250907
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-07 10:41
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the liquor market is gradually emerging, and growth in new consumption is expected. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, ranking 14th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.2 percentage points. The sub-industries of processed foods (+1.0%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) performed relatively well. Individual stocks such as Huanlejia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Huifa Foods saw significant gains, while Aipu Co., Youyou Foods, and New Dairy experienced notable declines. Despite market consolidation, a more proactive investment approach in the food and beverage sector is recommended to seize undervalued rotation opportunities. The liquor sector is facing demand decline due to alcohol bans, but the current fundamental situation is already reflected in the market, and the risk is reduced. As companies streamline operations, they are expected to resonate with the subsequent industry recovery, leading to increased investment interest. Some liquor brands are showing signs of improvement in opening rates, indicating that the fundamental bottom is approaching. The food and beverage sector has undergone a prolonged adjustment, and current valuations are relatively low, providing a high safety margin. Public fund positions have continued to decrease, optimizing the chip structure. Liquor companies, represented by liquor stocks, are showing a continuous increase in dividends, aligning with the stock selection criteria of certain funds, making them attractive to conservative investors. Additionally, new consumption is expected to continue attracting funds in the second half of the year. From the mid-year performance reports, new consumption targets exhibit rapid growth and strong growth potential, with high growth expected for the entire year. Investors are advised to focus on new channels, new categories, and new markets to identify new consumption targets that align with industry development trends. Specific recommended stocks include Weilong Delicious, Yanjinpuzi, Ximai Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Youyou Foods, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. [3][11][12] Market Performance - From September 1 to September 5, the food and beverage index declined by 1.0%, ranking 14th out of 28, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.2 percentage points. The sub-industries of processed foods (+1.0%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) performed relatively well. Individual stocks such as Huanlejia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Huifa Foods saw significant gains, while Aipu Co., Youyou Foods, and New Dairy experienced notable declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - On September 2, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,809 per ton, down 5.6% month-on-month but up 12.2% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram on August 28, remaining stable month-on-month but down 4.7% year-on-year. In the short to medium term, domestic milk prices are still on a downward trend [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Recently, Guizhou Province announced two liquor projects with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan. The projects include a 50,000-ton annual production facility for sauce-flavored liquor and an intelligent storage center for sauce-flavored liquor. The total investment for the production facility is 5 billion yuan, while the intelligent storage center has an investment of 200 million yuan [38][39].