开头先讲一个故事。 抗战时期，清华、北大、南开师生一路南迁。1937年九、十月后，他们陆续到了长沙。 他们虽是大学生，在那个年代算得上见识比较广的了。但到了长沙，大部分人感到十分新奇，甚至震撼。 清华经济系的蔡孝敏就回忆，长沙的店铺感觉是很宽很深，有一家名叫"九如"的吃食铺更是深不见底，"一望无际的架橱内摆满各式各类食品，十分壮观 令人目迷五味，馋涎欲滴"。 将近百年之后，长沙商业繁荣给世人的震撼不减反增。 就像有网友分享第一次去长沙旅游。晚上吃完小龙虾已经两点，寻思着回酒店休息，但走到外面却发现街上全是人，一度怀疑自己是不是看错时间了。 位于长沙的湖南黄金楼 摄影/窦超 更有说服力的是数字： 今年国庆期间（从9月30日至10月7日），长沙市的商品和服务销售总额高达270亿元，也就是每天有超过30亿的现金在这座城市流动。 放眼全国，长沙新消费是独具一格的。 就在上周，长沙已经进入消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市、国际化消费环境建设试点城市两个国家级消费试点公示。 长沙，为什么能？ 长沙夜景 摄影/孙允广 01 长沙，一座不夜城 长沙和夜，有着天注定般的浪漫渊源。 每天傍晚6点到第二天凌晨2时左右，是长沙市民、游 ...

港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 华源证券表示，新兴消费品的蓬勃发展折射出新世代年轻人在当前社会环境下所孕育出的新兴消费观 念，正确的解读此类全新的消费叙事是抓住新消费公司成长的关键因素。因此，在黄金珠宝方面，建议 关注更受年轻消费者欢迎的古法黄金赛道头部品牌，如老铺黄金等；潮玩方面，建议关注具备IP创造及 对IP运营有丰富的成功经验的公司，如泡泡玛特、名创优品；现制茶饮方面，建议关注品牌力较强且业 务覆盖区域较广的头部茶饮品牌，如蜜雪集团、古茗。 11月21日，名创优品发布"IP天才少年计划"，以100-1000万年薪面向全球招募顶尖IP创作人才，以加强 原创IP孵化，构建自有IP矩阵，向全球领先的IP运营平台升级。名创优品方面表示，该岗位设置意图为 吸引年轻人才来进行原创IP开发。11月21日，名创优品公布了2025年第三季度财务报告。财报显示， 旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY营收达5.7亿元，实现1 ...

【宏观】美联储内部分歧仍大 全球大类资产表现。 本周（2025.11.17-2025.11.23），多数资产价格均有明显下跌，大宗商品方面， IPE布油期货下跌2.8%。标普-高盛商品指数下跌 2.2%，COMEX铜下跌1.1%,，伦敦金现下跌0.4%，幅度相对较小。 主要经济体股市普遍下跌，其中，恒生指数下跌5.1%，幅度最大。 上证综指下跌3.9%，日经225指数下跌3.5%，标普500指数下跌1.9%。新兴市场股票指 数下跌3.0%，跌幅大于发达市场股票指数（下跌2.0%）。债市方面，10年期美债收益率较前一周回落8BP至4.06%，国内10Y国债期货价格与上周持平，中 债总全价指数下跌0.1%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收100.15，人民币兑美元贬值0.1%，日元兑美元贬值1.2%。 经济： 美国方面：9月美国非农数据喜忧参半，新增非农就业大超预期但失业率进一步回升至4.4%。房地产方面，成屋销售同比与环比增速均有所回落；截 至11月15日当周，美国首次申请失业金人数维持稳定。市场交易层面5年期通胀预期较上周回落6BP至2.32%，10年期通胀预期回落4BP至2.24%。 欧洲方面： 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a correction phase since October, primarily due to previous significant gains, tightening dollar liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the ongoing AI wave and the influx of incremental capital suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is likely to continue [1][2][13]. Market Adjustment - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has performed well, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech reaching new highs in early October. However, by mid-October, the market began to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum decline of 5.1% and Hang Seng Tech a maximum decline of 8.1% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech recorded maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively this year before entering the current adjustment phase [2]. Factors Influencing the Market - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. government shutdown led to a temporary halt in government spending, causing dollar liquidity to tighten [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown, economic data remains unclear, leading to cautious Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 40% [3]. - The significant prior gains in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with rising concerns over AI bubbles, have created selling pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a maximum increase of 61% this year, while the Hang Seng Biotech Index has increased by 130% [3][8]. Historical Context of Market Corrections - In bull markets, adjustments are common, categorized into small corrections (average maximum decline of about 7%) and large corrections (average maximum decline of about 17%). Small corrections typically occur due to short-term market sentiment disturbances, while large corrections are often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - Historical data shows that small corrections in the Hang Seng Index average a maximum decline of 6.5% and last about 12 trading days, while large corrections average a maximum decline of 17% and last about 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - The tightening dollar liquidity is viewed as a short-term disturbance, and the AI wave is expected to continue. The release of previously accumulated liquidity following the end of the U.S. government shutdown may support the Hong Kong stock market [13]. - Incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks may continue. The unique characteristics of Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing transformation in the domestic economy, enhance their attractiveness [13][14]. - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year. This trend is likely to be supported by institutional investors, further propelling the market upward [14].

对于策略中代表"稳健"的一端，她指出，在利率下行阶段，红利策略长期表现更优。高息股与全球各类 指数相关性低，能有效分散风险、降低投资组合波动，是稳健的底仓配置选择。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 香港报道 对于策略中代表"成长"的另一端，黄家乐认为港股成长股的潜力正被激发。她分析，外部来看，美联储 开启降息周期、芯片对华出口限制缓解，为科技、半导体等行业减轻了供应压力。而从内部来看，国内 政策正大力鼓励发展新质生产力，对人工智能（AI）、工业机器人等领域提供精准扶持。 11月20日，2025湾区财富大会在深圳会展中心举办，大会由21世纪经济报道、深圳金博会运营发展有限 公司联合主办。 对于成长板块，黄家乐认为新消费、创新药和科技创新三个领域将具备更优的配置潜力。她提到，在创 新药板块，AI技术正在驱动创新药研发的变革，通过提升效率与成功率，实现了CXO研发周期的缩 短。同时，国产创新药出海加速，License-out模式正推动全球竞争力提升。 中国平安资产管理（香港）有限公司董事总经理、全球机构业务负责人黄家乐在2025湾区财富大会上表 示，在中国资产重估的背景下，港股市场正迎来新的投资机遇，她建议 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI across all industries and roles, highlighting the necessity for continuous evolution to find certainty in a rapidly changing environment [3][6][10]. Group 1: AI and Innovation - The article discusses the integration of AI with innovative methodologies to empower business practices, focusing on the importance of understanding innovation and its foundational principles [10][11]. - It outlines a curriculum designed to help participants navigate the AI-driven landscape, emphasizing strategic insights and practical applications for business innovation and organizational upgrades [11][12]. Group 2: Community and Collaboration - The article highlights the unique "three-teacher system" at the Chaos Innovation Institute, which fosters deep connections and collaborative learning among participants, enhancing their entrepreneurial journeys [14][18]. - It mentions the establishment of a high-quality alumni network, comprising over 2,500 entrepreneurs from various sectors, facilitating cross-industry collaboration and knowledge sharing [30][31]. Group 3: Practical Application and Results - Participants are encouraged to define their "winning battles" at the beginning of their journey, engaging in collaborative exercises to develop actionable solutions throughout their learning experience [21][22]. - Success stories are shared, illustrating how alumni have effectively applied the Chaos methodology to achieve significant business results, such as the rapid growth of AI-driven products [23][25]. Group 4: Enrollment and Opportunities - The article announces the opening of enrollment for the 10th cohort of the Chaos Innovation Institute, inviting entrepreneurs and business leaders to join and enhance their strategic capabilities in the AI era [7][36]. - It emphasizes the benefits of team participation, suggesting that collective learning accelerates organizational evolution and reduces communication costs [34][33].

中证报中证网讯(记者张舒琳)十月以来，A股市场持续震荡。对于后市，合煦智远基金副总经理杨志勇 表示，对A股市场乐观的观点没有改变，2024年"9.24"是一个分水岭，A股市场大概率将继续以震荡上 行的态势运行。我国的经济运行将继续保持在长期增长的轨道中，这是A股市场最大的基本面，也是A 股市场走强的底气所在。 杨志勇认为，当前，我国处于低利率的市场环境，预计这种低利率水平可能仍会持续，而低利率水平有 助于提升股权风险溢价，提升权益类资产的配置价值，社会财富增加权益类资产配置是个必然趋势。 关于消费投资，杨志勇认为已经迎来了较好的配置时机，消费对A股投资的贡献度也将显著提升。在消 费主题的投资过程中，一方面可以从传统消费股中挖掘价值线索，包括经历过去几年震荡调整后，行业 竞争格局不断改善(包括并购等)、供给出清、拥有良好的自由现金流的个股；具备高股息红利属性的家 电、汽车、白酒等龙头品种；以及具备第二生长曲线、产品创新、渠道力扩张、渗透率提升或品牌集中 度提高等因素的股票。另一方面可以从新消费和服务消费中挖掘景气、成长、创新以及情绪、兴趣和社 交等精神价值因素，做到与估值匹配，并紧密跟踪考察报表端的落地情况。此 ...

上半年，以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金和蜜雪集团为代表的"新消费三姐妹"风光无限，而如今，这些新消费龙 头正经历着考验。 记者复盘公募基金的操作路径发现，多只QDII产品凭借专业研判提前调仓，多家重仓港股的基金在三 季度大幅削减了新消费龙头股的仓位。 谈及新消费走弱原因，盈米东方金匠投顾团队表示，最近一年，港股消费板块涨幅较大，市盈率远超传 统消费。例如泡泡玛特动态市盈率曾高达128倍，而同期迪士尼仅为23.7倍。老铺黄金动态市盈率曾高 达150倍，而同期LVMH仅为17.9倍。持仓资金获利丰厚，出于锁定收益的考虑集中卖出，推动板块进 入调整阶段。 盈米东方金匠投顾团队认为，市场对于这些新消费巨头的商业模式可持续性存在担忧。许多新消费品牌 在初期凭借新颖的模式和精准的营销，实现了爆发式增长。但当渗透率达到一定水平后，消费者容易产 生审美疲劳，行业内竞争又非常激烈，使得业绩兑现存在挑战。相比之下，资金更倾向于向估值更低、 业绩更稳定、成长空间更大的板块转移。 另一只新消费龙头——蜜雪集团在6月初股价突破610港元/股后，便一路震荡下跌，11月20日收盘跌至 407.2港元/股。此外，老铺黄金股价今年7月份曾接近1100港 ...

（可公开）以盈利为帆，配置下一轮阿尔法 基 金 研 究 ——公募基金 2026 上半年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点 今年以来市场回顾:今年以来海外美元流动性持续宽松,全球资金再平 衡，大类资产中除了原油外均表现亮眼。映射到基金市场，基金市场整 体表现较好，各类型基金总指数均录得正收益，其中权益类基金表现靠 前。如果从投资策略来看，主动投资策略跑赢被动投资策略基金3%左右， 这也是主动投资策略基金在经历过去三年的相对落后之后首年取得超 额，但与之形成鲜明对比的是公募基金被动化进程显著加快，被动股票 型指数基金规模开始超越主动权益基金，新发市场也呈现同样的特征， ETF市场迎来跨越式发展，新发数量和规模均突破历史纪录。 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： 基金从业资格证书编号： 基 金 专 题 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 20250 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) opening high but declining nearly 0.5% [1] - Among the holdings, companies like Chuangke Industrial, Samsonite, Li Ning, and Midea Group saw significant gains, while Xpeng Motors, Miniso, Xiaomi Group, and Bilibili faced notable declines [1] - The implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans starting September 1, 2025, aims to reduce consumer credit costs through fiscal funds, reflecting the policy's inclusiveness and addressing diverse consumer needs [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities noted that October's consumption data showed internal structural highlights, revealing strong endogenous momentum despite an overall stable trend [1] - When excluding the short-term drag from automobiles, the actual growth rate of social consumption rebounded significantly to 4.0%, indicating that the resilience of the consumption market exceeds surface data [1] - The driving forces behind this momentum include ongoing consumption upgrade trends, particularly strong demand for gold and jewelry, and the revitalization of service consumption driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of sectors including leading new consumption companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting its strong tech and consumer attributes [2]