Group 1 - Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, has raised alarms about the high probability of a U.S. recession, now estimated at 48% for the next 12 months [1] - Zandi describes the U.S. economy as being on the "precipice of recession," indicating a critical economic situation [1] - Historical data suggests that a recession probability reaching such a high level has never occurred without leading to an actual recession [1] Group 2 - The decline in residential building permits is highlighted as a significant indicator of potential recession, with current levels nearing those seen during the pandemic [3] - Zandi notes that the upcoming residential building permit data, to be released on September 17, will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [3] - Even if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates as expected, Zandi warns that this may not be sufficient to prevent an economic recession [3]