许多经济学家和科技巨头此前也曾警告，随着AI投资的持续膨胀，一个"AI泡沫"正在形成。尽管AI被寄予厚望，但目前还缺乏充足证据证明其能带 来真正的经济变革。与此同时，就业增长乏力、通胀阴影不散，使得外界对美国经济健康状况的担忧加剧。 消费疲软的迹象进一步加剧了这些担忧。根据纽约联邦储备银行8 月发布的报告，2025 年第二季度，美国家庭债务增加 1850 亿美元，达到 18.39 万亿美元；汽车贷款余额增加 130 亿美元，升至 1.66 万亿美元；学生贷款余额也小幅增加 70 亿美元，总额达 1.64 万亿美元。 拍摄：TIMOTHY A. CLARY 图 源 ： 法新社/盖蒂图片社 导语： 亿万富翁投资人史蒂夫・艾斯曼警告称，消费者的处境日益艰难，而人工智能推动美国经济发展的说法却让人们忽视了这一现实。他还称，若剔 除人工智能领域，美国经济的实际情况将截然不同。 以精准预测2008年房地产崩盘而闻名的金融分析师 史蒂夫・艾斯曼 （并在2015年电影《大空头》中被搬上大银幕的人物），近日在播客节目 The Real Eisman Playbook 中表示，美国经济是一部 "双城记"：尽管国内生产总值（GDP ...

在全球范围内雇佣了超过70万员工的投资管理公司——凯雷投资发布了一份对美国劳动力市场的"黯淡 解读"，以填补美国政府关门留下的经济数据真空。 美国劳工部的9月就业报告原定于上周五发布，是自政府上周关门以来被推迟的关键数据之一。此前， 经济学家调查预计，9月份非农就业人数将比8月份的总数（约1.59亿）增加5.4万人，而凯雷的估算值却 仅为新增1.7万个工作岗位，这将是美国经济自2020年衰退中复苏以来最疲弱的结果之一。 十多年来，凯雷一直在计算该公司独家的美国国内生产总值（GDP）、消费者支出和通胀估计值，以便 在政府数据延迟或不可用时，"作为及时的替代指标"，并在此类情况下选择性地发布。 他特别提到，"通胀看起来比仅受关税影响的耐用品范围要广泛得多"，而从上个月开始实施的关税，到 目前为止引起的通胀低于市场预期。 美联储上个月进行了今年以来首次降息，以应对劳动力市场出现疲软的迹象，尽管通胀仍高于其长期目 标。因此，官方的就业和消费价格数据可能会改变市场对后续降息的预期，从而在全球债券、货币和股 票市场引发巨大波动。 负责编制美国月度就业报告的劳工统计局会针对约12.1万家企业和政府机构进行调查。不过，其他私 ...

美国政府关门已经进入第五天，尽管许多人认为美股创出新高与政府停摆无关，但在另一个被忽视的市场上，美国正在悄悄失去国家的国运。国际现货黄金 的价格已突破3900美元，而主流财经媒体对这一现象却鲜有关注，更没有揭示背后的逻辑和危机。 美国国内的财政状况也变得越来越紧张。自3月美国提高债务上限以来，财政部已借贷1.7万亿美元，美债总额即将突破38万亿美元。随着现金流压力加大， 美国社会各阶层的矛盾愈发激化。这使得特朗普政府加强对军队的控制，逼迫一些不听话的将领辞职，为可能爆发的战争做最后的准备。 随着美国政府的停摆，国家的运转开始失常，一场危机正在悄然逼近美国。这次政府关门对全球秩序的影响有多大？为什么此时美国重要军事将领选择辞 职？特朗普是否正在失去美国的国运？ 据美国媒体报道，政府停摆后，已有两位高级美军将领宣布辞职。其中一位负责监督美国三分之二核武器及其他威慑力量的高级将领，辞职前听完美国战争 部长赫格塞思的演讲。赫格塞思在讲话中对军官们表示："你们的使命就是杀戮和毁灭，甚至在呼吁美国放弃《日内瓦公约》。" 从特朗普政府的行动来看，特朗普为巩固自己的权力，正在为一场战争做准备，而这场战争很可能会将美国的命运推 ...

新兴市场的日子更不好过。美国一打喷嚏，全世界得感冒。美元作为储备货币，地位一晃悠，全球金融市场就乱套。回想2008年次贷危机，从华尔街崩盘到 全球风暴，金融机构倒了一片，新兴经济体外需一缩，企业关门大吉。 眼下美债危机一触即发，收益率曲线倒挂加深，投资者抛售债券，转身买避险资产。越南、巴西、墨西哥这些地方，依赖美国进口，订单一少，工厂就得减 产。印度软件出口也跟着抖，预算紧缩的美国企业砍合同，经济增长曲线直往下弯。世界银行的报告说，新兴市场贸易增长只剩1.7%，这打击可不轻。 美国经济这几年看着风光，骨子里问题可不少。到了2025年，情况就更明显了。商务部的数据显示，二季度GDP增长了3.3%，但这不过是表面文章，分析 师们早就在摇头。S&P全球的报告直指，全年真实GDP增长可能只到1.5%，比去年2.5%低一大截。 会议委员会的预测也差不多，说下半年关税一压，增长就得进一步下滑。失业率呢，本来以为稳在4.3%，现在国会预算办公室估摸着要冲到4.5%。这不是 小事，意味着更多人丢饭碗，消费就跟着蔫了。 通胀这块儿更烦人。美联储虽说在降息，但核心通胀率还挂在3.5%左右，离2%的目标差老远。旧金山联储的行长在讲 ...

目前，美国经济可以说就像一个"病危"的患者，就业疲软、债务高企、经济不确定性太大，种种症状，让这个全球最大经济体面临前所未有的治疗难题。 在此背景下，当地时间9月17日，美联储的决策团队终于开出了药方：降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25%。 这是自2024年12月以来的首次降息，如同一剂强心针注入病体沉疴的美国经济。 那么这剂药方，能够拯救美国经济吗？ 从现实情况来看，非常难。 因为美国经济目前是三大重要症状交织，高通胀、就业疲软与债务危机都出现在美国身上。 每一种都是非常难以治疗的症状。 比如美联储维持高利率，那么美国的通胀情况就能缓解。 但问题是，高利率的代价必然是要牺牲经济和财政的。 但它的副作用，也是非常明确的，那就是包括可能加剧通胀、削弱美元汇率、引发资产泡沫。 所以，如何开出精准的剂量药品，在其中找到细微的平衡点，就格外重要了。 因为一个闹不好，就有可能失衡，给美国经济引发更大的灾难。 当前，美联储选择25个基点的降息，其实就是如同精准控制的微量注射——既想缓解症状，又想避免过度刺激。 想要通过循序渐进的治疗方案，一点点治美国的经济病。 但问题在于：经济病情会等待这种 ...

进入9月份，国际金价持续走高。COMEX(纽约商品交易所)黄金期货主力12月合约陆续突破3600美元/ 盎司、3700美元/盎司和3800美元/盎司重要关口。不过，截至9月25日记者发稿，COMEX黄金期货主力 12月合约暂时失守3800美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖向《证券日报》记者表示，目前国际金价已有回调迹象，短期较 难出现持续上涨行情。随着"十一"假期临近，期货市场也可能出现常规性减仓操作，预计沪金期价波动 加大。 上海文华财经资讯股份有限公司数据显示，9月25日，国内商品期货沉淀资金有所下滑，其中，沪金沉 淀资金量当日流出56亿元，降至1100亿元关口。 "国庆长假期间，国际黄金期价大概率会出现宽幅波动行情，国内投资者可买入期权来平衡风险与收 益。"王莹表示，期权的买方具有非对称性优势，长假期间若出现较大风险敞口，期权可有效弥补相应 损失。 "十一"长假期间，国内商品期货市场将暂停交易，而国际市场正常运行，海外市场宏观经济数据发布等 因素将带来较大不确定性。在此背景下，节后国内商品市场或面临跳空行情和基差波动风险。 中衍期货投资咨询部研究员王莹认为，本轮国际金价走强的逻辑，主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weakening of the US dollar since the implementation of Trump's tariffs on April 2, while the Chinese yuan remains under pressure. It analyzes the reasons behind the dollar's decline and the potential future trends for both the dollar and yuan [1]. Group 1: Recent Weakness of the US Dollar - Since January 10, the US dollar has been continuously weakening, with the dollar index dropping to 99.4 by April 17, a decline of 9.3%. The dollar's performance has shown a clear divergence against developed and emerging market currencies, with declines of 7.6% and 1.4% respectively [2][7]. - Prior to April 7, the primary reason for the dollar's weakness was the rising expectations of a US recession, as indicated by a drop in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index from 14.5 to -19.5. This led to an increase in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which rose from 1.2 to 4.2 times by April 4, causing a significant drop of 62 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [2][17]. - After April 7, despite a rebound in Treasury yields, the dollar continued to weaken, possibly due to overseas capital fleeing the US. This shift in market sentiment transitioned from "flight to safety" to "flight to non-US" assets [2][28]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the US Dollar - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies may continue to exert downward pressure on the US economy, potentially leading to further dollar weakness. The tariffs are expected to increase economic and trade uncertainties, impacting corporate activities and consumer confidence [3][39]. - The GTAP model suggests that the tariffs could reduce US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points. Historical patterns indicate that during recessions, the dollar typically strengthens; however, current concerns about US debt sustainability and Trump's isolationist policies may weaken the dollar's safe-haven status [3][52]. - The outflow of funds from US assets could diminish the likelihood of the dollar's typical "smile curve" behavior during a recession, as capital flows towards non-US assets increase [3][52]. Group 3: Implications for the Chinese Yuan - Despite the weakening dollar, the Chinese yuan has also depreciated, primarily due to the direct impact of tariff policies. Since April 2, while the dollar index fell by 4.1%, the onshore yuan depreciated by 0.4%, reaching a new low since the 2015 reform [4][61]. - Looking ahead, the depreciation pressure on the yuan may ease as external shocks diminish. The ongoing US economic downturn and capital outflows from the US could alleviate external pressures on the yuan [4][92]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tools to counter cyclical behaviors in the market, and the accumulation of approximately $123.9 billion in pending foreign exchange settlements since 2023 may provide a buffer for the yuan's stability [4][77].

Group 1 - The core debate in the market revolves around whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts signify a "rate cut trade" indicating a soft landing for the U.S. economy, or a "recession trade" suggesting significant risks for equities [2][3][7] - Current economic indicators in the U.S. are weak but not at recession levels, with key metrics remaining relatively high compared to historical recession periods [8][11][14] - The employment market's traditional signaling of recession risks may be diminishing due to factors such as AI-driven investment and an aging population, which alters the relationship between employment, income, and consumption [17][20] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's proactive measures have reduced the likelihood of a financial crisis, thereby increasing the difficulty of a recession occurring in the U.S. [4][25] - Historical responses to financial crises, such as the rapid implementation of quantitative easing during the 2019 monetary crisis and the swift actions following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, illustrate the Fed's commitment to maintaining economic stability [5][25] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by weak economic performance but not a recession, is favorable for both U.S. equities and bonds in the medium term [6][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a preventive measure to support the economy, but it does not eliminate the risk of recession in the U.S. economy [5][9][10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July 2025, below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [11]. - In August 2025, non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [11]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downward, indicating a reduction of 911,000 jobs, revealing a more fragile labor market than previously thought [11]. Manufacturing Sector - The New York Fed's manufacturing index fell to -8.7 in September 2025, significantly below the forecast of 5.0, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing sector [12]. Trade Policies - Trade protectionism, particularly the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, is negatively impacting the U.S. economy by increasing costs for consumers and businesses, leading to reduced investment and consumer spending [13][14]. - The tariffs are expected to result in significant job losses and income reductions for American households, with estimates suggesting a potential recession probability increase from 25% to 40% [14]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, various asset classes reacted with volatility, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's optimistic forecasts [9][10]. - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise as investors seek refuge from potential economic downturns [17]. Long-term Implications - The U.S. government's rising debt burden, projected to exceed $37 trillion, poses a risk to the long-term stability of U.S. Treasuries, potentially diminishing their safe-haven status [18]. - The dollar may experience a short-term strengthening due to safe-haven flows, but long-term trends suggest a weakening of the dollar as global trust in U.S. fiscal management declines [19]. Summary of Asset Movements - In the event of a recession or heightened recession expectations, investors typically shift from risk assets to safe-haven assets, leading to a temporary increase in demand for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, while long-term concerns about debt and creditworthiness may undermine their value [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a preventive measure rather than a response to a strong economy, indicating underlying economic concerns [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [6]. - In August, non-farm employment increased by just 22,000, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, marking a four-year high [6]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downward by 911,000 jobs, revealing a more fragile labor market than previously thought [6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation remains high, with the August CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - The Fed's decision to lower rates in a high-inflation environment reflects a serious economic downturn, contradicting traditional monetary policy [3][5]. Internal Fed Dynamics - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for no further cuts while others suggest a larger cut of 50 basis points [3][4]. Trade and Economic Policy - Trade protectionism, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, is negatively impacting the U.S. economy by raising costs for consumers and businesses [7][8]. - The tariffs are expected to lead to a decline in consumer spending and investment, further exacerbating economic slowdown [7][8]. Global Economic Impact - A potential U.S. recession could have global repercussions, particularly for export-driven economies like Germany, Japan, and Mexico, as U.S. demand decreases [9]. - Financial markets may react negatively to U.S. economic downturns, leading to a sell-off of risk assets globally [9]. Safe-Haven Assets - In the event of a recession, gold is likely to see increased demand as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. Treasury bonds may also strengthen in the short term due to their liquidity and perceived safety [11]. - However, long-term concerns about U.S. debt levels and interest burdens may undermine the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [12]. Currency Dynamics - The U.S. dollar may experience a short-term strengthening due to safe-haven flows, but long-term trends suggest a weakening dollar as confidence in U.S. fiscal management declines [13].