Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market volatility may remain at a high level. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are currently difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum long positions on dips. The London platinum should pay attention to the support level of $1800 per ounce, and the London palladium should focus on the support level of $1300 per ounce [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 497.50 yuan/gram, up 12.90 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 357.30 yuan/gram, up 2.15 yuan. The main contract position of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands, while that of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 489.65 yuan/gram, up 12.61 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 329.00 yuan/gram, down 2.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 0.29 yuan/gram, and that of the palladium main contract decreased by 4.15 yuan/gram to - 28.30 yuan/gram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00 to 3003.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5.00 tons to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 tons to 261.60 tons, while that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27.00 tons to 287.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.28 to 100.18, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.05 percentage points to 2.13%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 3.61 to 31.05 [2] Industry News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict is intense and stalemated. The US plans a ground operation in Iran, and the number of US troops in the Middle East exceeds 50,000. Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession, with Moody's model showing a 48.6% probability in the next 12 months and Goldman Sachs raising it to 30%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory at the end of the year may drop to 2.613 million ounces. The medium - term supply of platinum remains tight. The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts, and its structure is relatively single [2] Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced that starting this summer, U.S. banknotes will feature President Trump's signature for the first time, marking a departure from 165 years of tradition [2][5] - The first batch of $100 bills with Trump's signature will be printed in June, followed by other denominations in the subsequent months [5][8] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that this move is appropriate to commemorate the 250th anniversary of American independence, highlighting the strong economic growth and stability of the financial system during Trump's second term [5][8] Group 2 - Multiple institutions have raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession, with Moody's Analytics estimating a 48.6% chance of recession within the next 12 months [9][12] - Goldman Sachs has increased its recession probability forecast to 30%, while Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon estimate it at 45% and 40%, respectively [12] - Concerns have been raised about the reliance of consumer spending on asset price increases, with 20% to 25% of spending growth attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable under energy shocks, and if market sentiment deteriorates, the risk of recession will rise sharply, leading to a rapid re-evaluation of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Recession Risk Accumulation - Simon White's recession warning model consists of 14 sub-models, requiring at least 40% activation to signal a recession. Currently, only about 20% of the sub-models are activated, including a recently triggered oil price surge indicator, indicating that recession risk remains manageable [4]. - Historical patterns show that once the model readings break above the 20%-30% range, they tend to rise rapidly, reflecting the abrupt nature of recessions in the real economy. The model's reading has increased from just above 20% to 30%, nearing the critical threshold of 40% [4]. - The implied recession probability in the stock and credit markets is around 20%, while copper prices and yield curves suggest a more pessimistic outlook with probabilities of 45%-55% [4]. Group 2: Hard Data Pressure and Policy Constraints - Hard data has already begun to show pressure, with housing data, auto sales, and overall synchronous indicators weakening this year. This situation is described as a "worst-case scenario" [6]. - When hard data weakens first, the effectiveness of policy interventions is significantly reduced, as damage may already be done. Currently, soft data remains stable, but if it begins to weaken, the probability of entering a recession in the next 2-3 months will increase significantly [6]. Group 3: Energy Shock Amplifying Downside Risks - Oil prices are a core variable in the current risk landscape. Despite improvements in energy efficiency, high oil prices could lead to significant demand destruction, potentially tripling the negative impact on GDP [9]. - The current situation is compared to the 1990 recession, where an oil price spike exacerbated the downturn. Early signs of credit deterioration are already visible, echoing the unsettling conditions of that period [9]. Group 4: Market Impact in a Recession Scenario - If a recession occurs, all asset classes will face significant re-pricing. Historically, the median decline in the stock market during recessions since 1960 has been 12%, with declines reaching as high as 45% during the 1973-1974 oil shock [11]. - Bonds may benefit from safe-haven buying, but due to the stagflation nature of the current shock, bond price increases may not match past performance during recessions. Commodities often perform relatively well during commodity price-induced recessions [11]. - The area likely to see the most significant re-pricing will be in the U.S. short-term interest rate market. Although the timing for such trades is not yet ripe, once market sentiment begins to crack, the re-evaluation of rate cut expectations will be swift and potentially exceed pre-conflict levels [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risk of a recession in the U.S. economy due to rising inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a weakening labor market, despite the Federal Reserve's denial of a stagflation scenario [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Recession Predictions - Moody's has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast to 30% [3][5]. - Wilmington Trust predicts a 45% chance of recession, and EY estimates it at 40%, emphasizing that prolonged or intensified Middle Eastern conflicts could escalate these probabilities [3][4]. - Polymarket's betting odds for a recession by the end of the year have risen from 23% to 35% following the outbreak of the Middle Eastern conflict [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Oil Prices - EY's chief economist Gregory Daco warns that if the Middle Eastern conflict continues, inflation could rise to around 5%, and GDP growth could decline by over 1 percentage point, heightening recession risks [4]. - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI crude futures around $88 per barrel and Brent crude below $96 per barrel, still approximately 25% higher than pre-conflict levels [4][5]. - The American Automobile Association reports a 35% increase in gasoline prices over the past month, which could directly impact the economy [5]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - The U.S. labor market is under pressure, with only 116,000 jobs added in 2025 and a reduction of 92,000 jobs in February, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [6][7]. - The labor market's challenges are exacerbated by a narrow recruitment scope, with over 500,000 jobs lost in sectors outside healthcare over the past year [7]. - Wilmington Trust's chief economist Luke Tilley suggests that while inflation risks may be lower than the Federal Reserve's expectations, the risks to the labor market are higher [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - A survey by NerdWallet indicates that 65% of respondents expect a recession within the next 12 months, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous month [6]. - Consumer spending has been buoyed by rising asset prices, but this trend may not be sustainable, with estimates suggesting that 20%-25% of spending growth in the past two years was driven by stock market wealth effects [8].

Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis of precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum [1][2] Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Platinum: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to continue to wait and see [2] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued a slight rebound. The market sentiment fluctuates around information related to the US - Iran war, and the short - term trend of precious metals is unclear, waiting for further clarity on the war situation [1] - The "Taco" macro trading in platinum continues, with large fluctuations in its financial premium, unstable market sentiment, and cautious capital entry. It is inclined to be priced according to the logic of industrial metals, with the support level at 350 yuan/gram [2] Key Information - Multiple institutions have raised the probability of a US economic recession [2] - UBS believes that the current situation is just a correction in the long - term upward trajectory of gold [2] - The G7 finance ministers, central bank governors, and energy ministers will discuss the release of strategic oil reserves at next week's meeting. Iran's conflict with the US and Israel has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, affecting about one - fifth of the global energy supply. The IEA member countries agreed to release part of the strategic reserves on March 11, and more reserves can be released if necessary [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Defense is developing a "final strike" military option against Iran, which may include ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [1][5] - President Trump warned Iran to take the peace agreement seriously or face severe consequences, indicating a potential escalation in military actions if negotiations fail [4][5] - The situation has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising over 40% since February 28, reaching $101.6 per barrel [2][8] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with the probability of a rate increase exceeding 50% for the year [2][8] - Economic analysts warn that the ongoing conflict and rising oil prices could lead to a significant economic impact, potentially reducing growth by up to 2% and increasing inflation [8][9] - The U.S. government is assessing the economic implications of extreme scenarios, such as oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, although officials deny specifically predicting this outcome [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The platinum and palladium markets continue to exhibit high volatility, with the core drivers being the fluctuating Middle - East situation, oil prices, inflation expectations, and the further postponement of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market remains uncertain about the Iran cease - fire plan, and high oil prices and the removal of the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year put pressure on the precious metals sector. However, platinum shows stronger performance than palladium during the correction, indicating that its price support comes more from its own tight fundamentals rather than just emotional trading [2]. - In the medium - term, the tight supply logic of platinum remains unchanged. Although the demand side is affected by the differentiation of the global auto industry, hybrid and internal combustion engine models still have resilience, supporting the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. In contrast, palladium, although supported by Russian supply risks this week, has a weaker medium - term logic than platinum. The long - term demand for palladium is still suppressed by the increase in electric vehicle penetration and the growth of recycling supply [2]. - In the future, due to many recent geopolitical and macro - level disturbances, market volatility has significantly increased. The trends of platinum and palladium are likely to follow the fluctuations of gold and silver. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 487.40 yuan/gram, down 24.45 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 353.35 yuan/gram, down 19.50 yuan. The platinum main - contract position was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main - contract position was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 484.55 yuan/gram, down 24.87 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 339.00 yuan/gram, down 5.00 yuan. The platinum main - contract basis was - 2.85 yuan/gram, down 0.42 yuan; the palladium main - contract basis was - 14.35 yuan/gram, up 14.50 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 99.64, up 0.43; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, down 0.04%. The VIX volatility index was 25.33, down 1.62 [2]. 2. Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear. Iran has clearly rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House spokesman claims that the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker Johnson says the Iran war is "nearly over and the goal has been achieved", and the US military's troop deployment in the Middle East is a warning to Iran without ground operations [2]. - Iranian officials have denied the so - called "15 - point cease - fire proposal" from the US, saying it is "a list of illusions". The Iranian Foreign Minister says there is no negotiation with the US, and the US is just sending messages through mediators, which is not equivalent to negotiation [2]. - Due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices, and the structural weakness of the labor market, Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession. Moody's analysis model shows that the probability of the US falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised its prediction to 30% [2]. - In February, the US import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, mainly driven by higher oil and gas prices. The export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase since May 2022 [2]. - Fed Governor Milan says the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy. The Fed should gradually cut interest rates to a neutral level this year. Due to the impact of oil prices, the overall inflation forecast for this year has been raised to 2.7% [2]. 3. Key Points to Watch - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pricing logic of precious metals is complex. When geopolitical tensions rise, some funds reduce their positions in precious metals for liquidity management and profit - taking. When the market anticipates a potential easing of the Middle - East situation, a slowdown in oil price increases, and a decline in inflation expectations, gold and silver regain support. The current market seems to factor in the logic that if the Middle - East situation eases, the re - inflation pressure driven by oil prices may weaken, leading to a rebound in precious metals when both the dollar and interest rates decline. The market's dominant logic has shifted from geopolitical risk aversion to the re - pricing of a restrictive interest - rate environment. In the future, inflation expectations, hawkish central bank policies, strong oil prices, and a strong dollar are the main risk factors. However, if the global economic slowdown is confirmed and stagflation trading heats up, gold prices may still be supported. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remain valid, and precious metals still have allocation value. Technically, the daily RSI of London gold and silver has rebounded from the oversold range, and the MACD green bar has converged. The short - term rebound may continue but with gradually weakening momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and long - term funds can consider gradually building long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 995.980 yuan/gram, down 18.0 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 17,472 yuan/kilogram, down 639.00 yuan. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai Gold was 170,696.00 lots, up 1,164.00 lots; for Shanghai Silver, it was 37,336.00 lots, down 10,102.00 lots. The main contract's trading volume for Shanghai Gold was 291,301.00 lots, down 25,881.00 lots; for Shanghai Silver, it was 775,118.00 lots, down 192,810.00 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai Gold was 106,743 kilograms (unchanged); for Shanghai Silver, it was 370,299 kilograms, down 5,795 kilograms [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 991.36 yuan/gram, down 24.09 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,750.00 yuan, down 652.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.62 yuan/gram, down 6.11 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 278.00 yuan/gram, down 13.00 yuan [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) were 159,869.00 contracts, down 3,263.00 contracts; for silver, they were 21,881.00 contracts, down 2,697.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. The US dollar index was 99.64, up 0.43; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 2.02%, down 0.04% [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 25.33, down 1.62; the CBOE gold volatility index was 38.65, down 3.25. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 0.00, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio was 62.38, down 0.69 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear. Iran rejects the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House says the negotiation is ongoing and productive. Iranian officials deny the negotiation. Wall Street institutions raise the probability of a US economic recession due to the Middle - East conflict, rising oil prices, and labor - market structural weakness. Moody's analysis shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs raises the forecast to 30%. In February, US import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, and export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest since May 2022. A Fed official suggests the Fed should cut interest rates to a neutral level this year and raises the inflation forecast to 2.7% [2] 3.6. Key Events to Watch - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders month - on - month; March 26, 20:30: US Q4 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value; March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21; March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index year - on - year/month - on - month; March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending month - on - month; March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Group 1 - Global investors are closely monitoring the situation in Iran, with significant declines in U.S. stock futures and Asian markets, indicating heightened market volatility [1][2] - The Israeli Defense Forces have launched large-scale attacks on Iranian infrastructure, while Hezbollah has retaliated with missile strikes on Israeli military targets [4][5] - The U.S. military continues operations against Iranian military targets, with the Lincoln aircraft carrier actively engaged in the region [2][6] Group 2 - Wall Street analysts are raising concerns about the risk of a U.S. economic recession due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising inflation [7][8] - The probability of a U.S. recession has been adjusted to 40% by Ernst & Young, with other institutions like Moody's and Goldman Sachs also increasing their recession forecasts [7][8] - The conflict is expected to lead to higher oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, which could further exacerbate inflation and economic downturns [7][8]

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a pullback, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 1% lower, reflecting uncertainty regarding US-Iran relations and the Middle East conflict [1][2] Oil Market Impact - Brent crude futures rose above $107, while West Texas Intermediate crude surpassed $94, driven by mixed signals regarding the potential for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict [2] Economic Concerns - Growing fears of a US recession are emerging as the oil price rally could lead to higher costs for consumers, with attention on weekly initial jobless claims as markets evaluate the Federal Reserve's response to rising oil prices [3]