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裕元集团(00551):优质订单驱动均价回升,看好体育赛事提振需求
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in average selling prices (ASP) driven by high-quality orders, with optimism regarding demand boost from multiple sports events in 2026 [6]. - The company reported a revenue of $6.02 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year [6][12]. - The manufacturing business showed a revenue increase of 2.3% year-on-year, while retail business faced short-term demand pressure due to weak offline consumption and competitive pricing [6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: $7.89 billion - 2024: $8.18 billion - 2025E: $8.36 billion - 2026E: $8.80 billion - 2027E: $9.30 billion - The expected growth rates are -12% for 2023, 4% for 2024, 2% for 2025, 5% for 2026, and 6% for 2027 [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is $388 million, $439 million, and $476 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8 for 2025, and 7 for 2026 and 2027 [6]. Business Performance - The manufacturing segment's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $4.23 billion, with a gross margin of 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - Retail revenue for the same period was 12.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 171 million RMB, down 50.1% year-on-year [6]. - The company has optimized inventory turnover, with manufacturing inventory turnover days at 53 days, and retail inventory turnover days at 161 days [6]. Market Position - The company is recognized as the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and holds a significant position in the domestic sports retail market [6].