Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The details of the latest U.S. tariff policies on Vietnam and Indonesia are not fully clarified, and the company will closely monitor these developments [2] - Historically, tariffs have been borne by brand clients (importers), ultimately affecting consumer prices; clients evaluate cost optimization across various dimensions if retail price increases impact competitiveness [2] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, many clients have not discussed the cost implications with the company [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Material Sourcing - In 2024, over 50% of the raw materials needed by the company's Vietnam factory will be sourced locally, while the proportion from mainland China has decreased to about 30% [3] - The company has seen a gradual shift of raw material manufacturers to Southeast Asian countries, with many Chinese manufacturers also establishing factories in Vietnam [2][3] Group 3: Sales Distribution and Market Performance - The U.S. market accounts for approximately 40% of the company's sales revenue, as reported in the annual report [4] - There are noticeable differences in sales performance across regions, with some brands having a higher market share in the U.S. while others perform better in Europe [5] Group 4: Profit Margins and Operational Efficiency - The gross profit margin declined in Q1 2025 due to the rapid increase in new customer orders and the need for new factory setups, which affected overall efficiency [6] - The company expects operational efficiency to improve as new employees become more skilled and factory processes are optimized [6] Group 5: Capital Expenditure and Future Investments - The company plans to maintain an active capacity expansion strategy, with capital expenditures projected to be between 1.1 billion to 1.7 billion RMB annually from 2022 to 2024 [9] - New factories will be established in Indonesia and Vietnam, with accelerated automation upgrades [9] Group 6: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, with cash dividends in 2021 accounting for approximately 89% of net profit, and 2022 and 2023 dividends at 43% and 44% respectively [10] - By the end of 2024, the company expects to have accumulated approximately 10.4 billion RMB in undistributed profits, allowing for potential increased dividends while meeting capital expenditure needs [10]

编号：2025-016 | 投资者关系 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议□媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动□现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 | 博时基金-蔡滨、林博鸿、李喆、郭永升，西部证券-于佳琦、高林峰、翟薇 | | 时间 | 2025年6月25日 | | 地点 | 中山 | | 上市公司 接待人员姓名 | 董事长张聪渊、副总经理张文馨、董事会秘书方玲玲 | | | 参加公司组织的调研活动（线下）的来访人员按深交所规定签署了《承诺书》。 | | | 投资者与公司的交流情况： | | | 问：公司毛利率、净利率表现较同行好的原因？ | | | 答：原材料价格的波动、人工成本的上涨、产能利用情况、员工的熟练度等因素都会影 | | | 响毛利率。公司毛利率表现比较好主要得益于公司客户结构和产品结构的调整以及精益 | | | 生产等措施的推进、工厂运营效率的提高。公司内部管理扁平化，不断优化管理模式和 | | | 运营流程，形成了一套标准化且有效的管理运营系统。比如事业部（群）会设定绩效指 | | | 标，同时公司按照业务规模拟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of $202.9 million and $7.6 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across manufacturing plants, inefficiencies in production, and rising labor costs due to increased hiring and wage inflation [2][3]. - The manufacturing ASP (Average Selling Price) turned positive after five consecutive quarters of decline, with Q1 2025 manufacturing revenue and net profit at $132.8 million and $6.4 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a decline of 24.6% [3]. - The retail business saw a further decline in revenue in April 2025, with Q1 retail revenue and net profit at $51.07 million and $1.38 million, respectively, down 5.4% and 20.7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to shareholders were 17.7%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively, down 2.6, 2.7, and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $8.69 billion, $9.09 billion, and $9.43 billion, while lowering net profit forecasts for the same period to $460 million, $520 million, and $560 million [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top global sports brands and a vertically integrated supply chain [5]. - The company exports 29% to the U.S. and can cover tariffs through increased production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia, with expectations of maintaining low to mid-single-digit growth in orders for the year [5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term challenges from tariffs and inflation affecting consumer confidence, the company is likely to see growth driven by production expansion and positive price momentum [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth driven by strategic customer expansion and new factory operations, despite a slight decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 5.4 billion, representing a 12% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million, down 3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 750 million, also a 3% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Customer and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its customer base, with most clients being publicly listed companies, which has contributed to stable revenue growth [2]. - New customer orders have significantly increased year-on-year, indicating strong demand and competitive positioning within the supply chain [2]. Group 3: Production and Operational Efficiency - The company is accelerating the construction and production pace of new factories, having launched two finished shoe factories in Q1 2025, following the establishment of four factories in 2024 [1]. - The initial phase of new factory operations is experiencing a learning curve due to employee training, impacting overall gross margin; however, the company plans to enhance operational efficiency through optimized training and smart production systems [1]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - The company is adjusting its production strategy in response to changing tariff policies, with manufacturing primarily in Vietnam and plans to increase capacity in Indonesia [3]. - The company’s product sales are directed by customer instructions, and any changes in tariff policies will influence supply chain decisions and production layout [3]. Group 5: Earnings Forecast - Based on Q1 2025 performance, the company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 4 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.5 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 3.41, 3.99, and 4.68, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [4].

Group 1 - The recent tariff measures by the U.S. targeting Southeast Asian economies, particularly Vietnam, are expected to disrupt trade and supply chains, leading to lowered economic forecasts for multiple countries in the region [1][6] - The U.S. has imposed a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff, Thailand 36%, Indonesia 32%, and Malaysia 24% [2][4] - The apparel and textile sectors in Vietnam, which heavily rely on exports to the U.S., are likely to be significantly impacted, with a projected export value of $44 billion in 2024 [4][6] Group 2 - Companies that previously benefited from the U.S. trade policies are now reconsidering their production strategies due to the unexpected high tariffs, which may lead to contract modifications or relocations [5][6] - Major tech companies like Dell and HP are already adjusting their production footprints, with Dell producing about 25% of its laptops in Vietnam and considering expansion in Thailand [5][6] - Economic analysts have downgraded growth forecasts for several Southeast Asian countries, with Vietnam's growth potentially facing a 3% reduction due to the tariffs [6][7] Group 3 - Malaysia's Prime Minister has indicated that the 24% tariff could necessitate a reassessment of the country's economic growth target, which was initially set between 4.5% and 5.5% [7] - Thailand's Prime Minister has acknowledged that the tariffs will have a significant negative impact on exports, particularly in electronics, processed foods, and agricultural products [7]

国科嘉和已率先通过前瞻性布局围绕新质生产力展开了系统性投资。 作者丨簪竹 来源丨投中网 随着政策春风吹来，创业投资前所未有地站到了舞台中央。 新"国九条"明确畅通"募投管退"循环，强调科创投资对于科技创新的支持；中央经济工作会议力倡以 科技创新引领新质生产力发展，壮大耐心资本...... 在加快发展新质生产力的新形势下，如何答好科技创新"时代命题",也考验着创投机构的智慧。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 作为投身硬科技投资领域十余载的老兵， 国科嘉和一直致力于推动优质科技成果进行市场化、产业 化发展，在其累计投资的百余家优秀科技企业里，近30家已成功IPO、已过会和已申报IPO，50余家 企业荣获国家级专精特新"小巨人"。 这也意味着，当众多投资机构纷纷转向硬科技赛道时，国科嘉和已率先通过前瞻性布局围绕新质生产 力展开了系统性投资。 技术资本助推高质量科创产业项目落地 在民营资本投资意愿减弱等大背景下，以政府引导基金、政府投资基金为代表的国资基金成为国内创 投市场的"白衣骑士"，为国内创投及私募股权市场注入了稳定资金。 据CVSource投中数据显示，2024年，政府机构及国资控股机构LP出资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Century Internet, Huayi Group, and 361 Degrees, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [19][25][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in capital expenditure for Century Internet, projecting a 101-141% increase in 2025, driven by strong demand in the AIDC sector [15]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are experiencing increased investment from both domestic and international giants, which is expected to accelerate AI application deployment [16]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth potential in the AIDC cloud computing market, with recommendations for various companies across different segments [17]. - Huayi Group is expected to see a revenue increase of 19.4% in 2024, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing customer structure [19]. - 361 Degrees anticipates breaking the 10 billion yuan revenue mark in 2024, with a strong emphasis on exploring new retail formats [25]. - The report notes that the toy market, particularly in the building block segment, is rapidly growing, with a projected increase in market size from 773.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 993.7 billion yuan by 2028 [32]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for borosilicate glass, with projected net profits growing significantly over the next few years [36][37]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - The report discusses the trading congestion indicators for the technology sector, suggesting that high trading volumes may indicate a risk of price corrections [3]. - Relative valuation metrics show that technology growth stocks are not at historical extremes but are also not particularly cheap, with TMT and robotics sectors at high percentiles [4][5]. Communication Sector - Century Internet's capital expenditure is expected to reach 100-120 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory in the AIDC market [15]. - The demand for AIDC services is anticipated to accelerate, supported by significant contracts from major clients [15]. Consumer Goods Sector - Huayi Group's new factory efficiency is expected to impact Q4 earnings positively, with optimistic projections for Adidas orders [19]. - 361 Degrees is actively exploring new retail formats and anticipates a revenue increase of 19.6% in 2024 [25]. Toy Industry - The report highlights the rapid growth of the building block toy market, with a significant market share held by companies like Bluko, which is leveraging a strong IP portfolio [31][32]. Pharmaceutical Glass Industry - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is expected to see substantial growth in net profits due to the increasing adoption of borosilicate glass in the pharmaceutical sector [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a 20% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2024, with a significant increase in cash dividends, reflecting a robust cash flow business model [7]. - The company achieved a record high revenue of 240.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 19.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 38.4 billion yuan, also a 20% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and is set to begin operations in a new facility in mainland China [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 240.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 38.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in earnings per share, with projections of 3.29 yuan for 2024 and 3.73 yuan for 2025 [6]. Sales and Profitability - The company reported a net profit margin of 16% for 2024, maintaining a high level of profitability despite slight fluctuations due to new factory investments [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) for 2024 is estimated at approximately 107 yuan, showing a 1.6% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company’s sales volume reached 223 million pairs in 2024, marking a 17.5% increase year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of sports shoes, with significant growth potential from new client partnerships, particularly with Adidas [7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from increased orders from major clients, with expectations of substantial order volume growth in the coming years [7]. - The expansion into new production bases is aimed at diversifying supply chains and meeting customer demands for varied production locations [7].