证券代码：300979 证券简称：华利集团 中山华利实业集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 问：公司未来几年的产能规划如何？ 答：考虑到客户订单的需求，未来几年公司仍会保持积极的产能扩张。2024 年投产的 4 家运动鞋量产工厂，2025 年 1-9 月，已经有 3 家工厂达成阶段性考核目标（内部核算口 径实现盈利），其中包括公司在印尼开设的第一家工厂印尼世川。未来 3-5 年，公司主要 将在印尼新建工厂并尽快投产，具体的工厂投产进度公司将及时披露。公司的产能除了 通过新建工厂、设备更新提升产能外，还可以通过员工人数和加班时间的控制保持一定 的弹性，每年具体的产能的配置将根据当年订单情况进行调整。 问：近些年部分同行制造商在台股上市，公司凭借哪些核心优势吸引客户达成合作？ 答：运动鞋制造商目前以台资厂、韩国厂为主，且头部鞋厂均为有几十年制鞋经验的老 厂，各个鞋厂基本都形成了相对稳定的客户结构。华利集团实行多客户模式，并且在不 断的优化客户结构、拓展新客户。公司的客户和产品风格比较多元，使得公司能够掌握 市场动态，满足客户多元化需求，同时，公司拥有业界最为全面的制鞋工艺技术和流 程，开发能力和量产能力有明显优 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 601.7 million USD and a net profit attributable to the parent of 27.9 million USD for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 16% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 195.7 million USD and 10.8 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 27% respectively, with a negative shift in sales growth due to capacity transfer and tariff impacts [1] Financial Performance - Q3 manufacturing revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 143.4 million USD and 10.9 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 4.5% and 25.7% respectively [1] - By product category, revenue changes were as follows: outdoor sports shoes -3.54%, casual shoes +7.67%, and sandals/accessories -31.61% [1] - Capacity utilization, footwear shipment volume, and average price were reported at 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and 21.43 USD respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38% [1] - Q3 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to the parent were 19.4%, 7.9%, and 7.6%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1.2, 1.2, and 2.2 percentage points [1] Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, retail business revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 3.744 million USD and -0.17 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 6.4% and 342.86% respectively [2] - Physical store revenue decreased by 13% due to low foot traffic, with a 3.5% year-on-year decline in the number of direct-operated stores to 3,338 [2] - Overall channel revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with online store revenue increasing by 8% and live streaming revenue more than doubling [2] - Q3 retail gross margin was 33.4%, down 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, while discounts remained stable [2] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top sports brands and vertical integration to control the supply chain effectively [2] - The company exports 29% to the US, with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and mainland China (10%), allowing for coverage of tariff impacts through overseas capacity [2] - Short-term outlook indicates that while October manufacturing revenue remains negative, the worst period for the industry may have passed, with potential demand for replenishment ahead of major events like the Olympics [2] - Mid-term expectations suggest a recovery in orders driven by capacity expansion and price growth, with long-term potential for improved net margins compared to peers [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8.218 billion, 8.547 billion, and 8.822 billion CNY, with net profit forecasts of 370 million, 410 million, and 450 million USD, corresponding to EPS of 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 USD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group's Q3 2025 report shows performance in line with expectations, with revenue of $6.02 billion, a 1.0% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor costs in manufacturing and uneven capacity utilization, as well as weak offline retail consumption and price competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's operating cash flow was $340 million, and free cash flow was $100 million, indicating stable cash flow performance [1] - Manufacturing business revenue reached $4.23 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year due to increased labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [2] - Retail business revenue was 12.9 billion RMB, a 7.7% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of 171 million RMB, down 50.1% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 33.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by weak domestic consumption and price competition [2] Group 2: Inventory and Cost Management - Inventory turnover days for the manufacturing business increased by 1 day to 53 days, while accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 2 days to 54 days, and accounts payable turnover days increased by 2 days to 32 days [3] - Retail business inventory turnover days increased by 9 days to 161 days, with accounts receivable turnover days remaining flat at 18 days, and accounts payable turnover days decreased by 13 days to 26 days [3] - The manufacturing business's operating profit margin was 6.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the retail business's operating profit margin was 2.3%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased expense ratios from declining revenue [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - Yuanyuan Group is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and the second-largest sports goods retailer in China, with a strong presence in the global sports industry chain [4] - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of $390 million, $440 million, and $480 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in average selling prices (ASP) driven by high-quality orders, with optimism regarding demand boost from multiple sports events in 2026 [6]. - The company reported a revenue of $6.02 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year [6][12]. - The manufacturing business showed a revenue increase of 2.3% year-on-year, while retail business faced short-term demand pressure due to weak offline consumption and competitive pricing [6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: $7.89 billion - 2024: $8.18 billion - 2025E: $8.36 billion - 2026E: $8.80 billion - 2027E: $9.30 billion - The expected growth rates are -12% for 2023, 4% for 2024, 2% for 2025, 5% for 2026, and 6% for 2027 [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is $388 million, $439 million, and $476 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8 for 2025, and 7 for 2026 and 2027 [6]. Business Performance - The manufacturing segment's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $4.23 billion, with a gross margin of 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - Retail revenue for the same period was 12.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 171 million RMB, down 50.1% year-on-year [6]. - The company has optimized inventory turnover, with manufacturing inventory turnover days at 53 days, and retail inventory turnover days at 161 days [6]. Market Position - The company is recognized as the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and holds a significant position in the domestic sports retail market [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience structural growth in the long term within the athletic footwear industry, despite facing short-term pressures from macroeconomic factors and international trade uncertainties [5]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies to expand its customer base and optimize its client structure, particularly focusing on the construction of its production base in Indonesia [5]. - As new factories become operational and cost-reduction measures are implemented, the overall gross margin is anticipated to improve [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 18.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, while net profit decreased by 14.34% to 2.435 billion yuan [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.19%, a slight recovery from previous quarters, although it still reflects a year-on-year decline of 4.82 percentage points [4]. - The average selling price per unit increased by 3.4% year-on-year to approximately 113.6 yuan, despite a 3.64% decline in sales volume [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.87 billion yuan, 27.97 billion yuan, and 30.81 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.74%, 8.12%, and 10.16% [6][12]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 3.29 billion yuan, 3.91 billion yuan, and 4.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -14.28%, 18.72%, and 19.68% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.82 yuan in 2025, 3.35 yuan in 2026, and 4.01 yuan in 2027 [6][12]. Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained stable operational capabilities, with accounts receivable increasing by 6.36% and inventory decreasing by 1.39% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency across its factories, with three out of four new factories expected to meet their internal profitability targets [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is experiencing fluctuations in orders from existing customers, while new customer growth remains strong. The sales volume of athletic shoes for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 168 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%. However, Q3 saw a decline in sales volume by 3.6% to 53 million pairs due to short-term order adjustments from some existing customers [6] - The new factories are showing improved profitability, with the gross margin for the first three quarters at 21.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.85 percentage points. The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.11 percentage points compared to Q2. As the new factories mature and cost reduction measures are implemented, further improvement in gross margin is expected [6] - The company is in a rapid capacity expansion phase, with three out of four new athletic shoe production facilities expected to achieve profitability in Q3 2025. The order structure is continuously optimized, and it is anticipated that orders from existing customers will stabilize in 2026 after supply chain adjustments are completed [6] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 24,006 in 2024 to 31,649 in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 19.35% in 2024, declining to 11.08% by 2027 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3,840 million yuan in 2024 to 3,318 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 4,566 million yuan in 2027 [2] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to decline from 3.29 yuan in 2024 to 2.84 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase to 3.91 yuan by 2027 [2] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to rise from 17.25 in 2024 to 19.96 in 2025, before decreasing to 14.51 in 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholder of Wah Lee Group, a key supplier for Nike, is cashing out by reducing its stake in the company, which may be influenced by changes in U.S. market tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Wah Lee Group's controlling shareholder, Hong Kong Jun Yao, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 17,505,000 shares (1.5% of total shares) through block trading from October 14, 2025, to January 13, 2026 [1]. - Hong Kong Jun Yao currently holds 972,750,000 shares (83.35% of total shares) and has already reduced its stake by 17,505,000 shares since June 27, 2023, cashing out approximately 895 million yuan [1]. - The total cash amount from the planned reduction is estimated to be around 961 million yuan based on the closing price of 54.92 yuan per share on September 22, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Wah Lee Group reported a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year to 12.66 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.1% to 1.67 billion yuan [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue growth of 9.0% year-on-year to 7.31 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 16.7% to 910 million yuan [4]. - The decline in profit is attributed to production disruptions during the ramp-up of new factory capacities and a decrease in orders from some existing clients [4]. Group 3: Market Context - The U.S. market is crucial for Wah Lee Group, accounting for 85.00% of its revenue, making it the largest sales source for the company [4]. - The global athletic footwear industry is facing challenges due to increased macroeconomic pressures and uncertainties in international trade policies [2]. - Wah Lee Group remains confident in its long-term stable development, planning to continue building new factories despite current challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is adjusted to "Accumulate" due to short-term profit pressure from new factory ramp-up and efficiency issues [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.671 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to several new factories being in the ramp-up phase, affecting overall efficiency and profit margins [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.167 billion yuan, which accounts for approximately 70% of the net profit for the first half of the year [1]. Revenue Performance - Revenue growth was driven by a significant increase in new customer orders, despite a decline in some existing customer orders. The overall sales volume of sports shoes increased by 6.14% year-on-year [2]. - In terms of product categories, sports casual shoes generated revenue of 11.336 billion yuan (up 10.78% year-on-year), while outdoor boots saw a significant decline of 57.31% to 262 million yuan due to customer adjustments in product categories [3]. - Geographically, revenue from Europe surged by 88.94% to 2.398 billion yuan, while North America experienced a slight decline of 0.43% to 9.887 billion yuan [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased by 6.38 percentage points to 21.85%, mainly due to lower efficiency in new factories. However, it is expected to recover as operations stabilize [3]. - The net profit margin also fell by 3.17 percentage points to 13.20% [3]. - Management expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 2.30 percentage points to 2.78%, primarily due to reduced performance-related compensation [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.006 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 19.35%, and is expected to reach 26.694 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.20% [10]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to 3.513 billion yuan, down from previous estimates, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company based on its growth potential and capacity expansion [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.06% to 1.671 billion yuan [1][2]. - Revenue growth was driven by new customer orders, while existing customer orders showed some volatility. The company sold 115 million pairs of sports shoes, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, with an average selling price of approximately 110 yuan per pair [1]. - The customer structure has become more diversified, with the top five customers accounting for 71.88% of revenue, down from 76.61% in the same period last year, indicating improved resilience against macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.85%, a decrease of 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.20%, down 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The decline in margins is attributed to the initial efficiency ramp-up of new factories and fluctuations in orders from existing customers. However, improvements in gross margins were noted in the second quarter as new factories began to operate more efficiently [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company is in the process of ramping up production at three new factories, with significant output reported: 670,000 pairs from the Sichuan factory, 1.99 million pairs from the Indonesia factory, and 3.73 million pairs from the Vietnam factory in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Continued investment in capacity expansion is planned, with new factories set to be established in Indonesia and expansions in Vietnam [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability as new factories reach operational maturity and customer orders stabilize. The sports shoe manufacturing industry is maturing, with a trend towards consolidation among core suppliers [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 3.486 billion, 4.039 billion, and 4.910 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -9.23%, 15.85%, and 21.58% [3][4].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.06% to 1.671 billion yuan [1] - The increase in revenue was driven by new customer orders, although there was some fluctuation in orders from existing customers [1] - The company sold 115 million pairs of sports shoes, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, with an average selling price of approximately 110 yuan per pair, contributing to significant revenue growth [1] - The top five customers accounted for 71.88% of revenue, down from 76.61% in the same period last year, indicating a more diversified customer base [1] Revenue Insights - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.85%, a decrease of 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.20%, down 3.17 percentage points [2] - The decline in margins was primarily due to the ramp-up phase of new factories and fluctuations in orders from existing customers [2] - The gross margin improved in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter, indicating a gradual recovery as new factories become more efficient [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in overall gross margins as new factories ramp up production [3] - Three new factories are in the ramp-up phase, with significant output expected from facilities in Sichuan, Indonesia, and Vietnam [3] - The company invested 1.378 billion yuan in fixed assets and other long-term assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a proactive approach to capacity expansion [3] Industry Perspective - The sports shoe manufacturing industry is in a mature phase, with customer resources concentrating on core suppliers with stable delivery and R&D capabilities [4] - Despite short-term pressure on profitability, the efficiency ramp-up of new factories and the gradual recovery of customer orders are expected to support future margin recovery [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.486 billion yuan, 4.039 billion yuan, and 4.910 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -9.23%, 15.85%, and 21.58% [4]