作物巡回调查

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【国富期货早间看点】Pro Farmer作物巡回调查已开启 25/26年巴西大豆种植面积或增1.2%至2.9%-20250820
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flow. It also provides updates on crop conditions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and regulatory developments. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions. CNF quotes and relevant information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US soybean - producing states will have below - normal temperatures and mostly near - to above - median precipitation from August 24th to 28th. Cool and dry weather is expected in the US Midwest in late August, with a 20 - 40 mm rain deficit in 10 - 15 days, and a possible warm and moderately rainy pattern in early September [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to stay above 4300 ringgit. Pro Farmer estimates soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. USDA reports soybean exports, and the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area may increase by 1.2% - 2.9%. Brazilian 8 - month soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to rise. A Brazilian regulatory body plans to investigate the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". EU 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year. Australian rapeseed exports have declined, and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped [7][9][12]. 国内供需 - On August 19th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 170% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill startup rate dropped slightly. China's refined edible vegetable oil production in July increased by 4.0% year - on - year. National soybean oil port inventory increased. China's feed production in July decreased slightly from the previous month but increased by 5.95% year - on - year. Agricultural product prices showed some changes [13][14]. 04 Macro要闻 国际要闻 - US retail sales, new home construction, and API crude oil inventory data are reported. The euro - zone's current account balance increased. Malaysia's economic growth may slow due to US tariffs [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on August 19th. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's fiscal revenue from January to July increased slightly year - on - year, and securities transaction stamp duty increased significantly [17]. 05资金流向 - On August 19th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 157.57 billion yuan, with 27.53 billion yuan from commodity futures and 130.04 billion yuan from stock - index futures. Agricultural product futures had a net inflow, while other sectors had net outflows [19][20]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant information provided.