Market Overview - On March 26, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3937 points and closing at 3889.08, down 1.09%[7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13606.44, down 1.41%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.34%[8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 19,571 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Industries such as batteries, energy metals, chemicals, and robotics showed strong performance, while sectors like defense, insurance, and wind power equipment lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with energy metals, batteries, coal, banks, and oil and petrochemicals leading the gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.25 and 47.03, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Economic and Policy Outlook - The primary market pressure stems from overseas factors, particularly potential escalations in the Middle East conflict that could drive oil prices higher and exacerbate global stagflation risks[3] - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports market stability[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the battery, energy metals, chemicals, and robotics sectors[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Positive (Trend Intensity: 1)**: Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Iron Ore, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Sugar [22][43][50][82][94][113][119][168] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Peanut [7][11][14][17][24][27][31][44][71][75][83][90][97][102][106][144][147][152][158][159][162][170][184] - **Negative (Trend Intensity: - 1)**: Alumina, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Eggs, Pigs [25][125][127][177][180] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Geopolitical Impact**: Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on commodity prices. For example, the conflict between the US and Iran affects the supply and price of energy - related commodities such as crude oil, LPG, and fuel oil. The shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz also impacts the transportation and price of various commodities [48][75][115][135]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary. For some commodities like iron ore, the price is supported by cost and inventory structural contradictions; for others like industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, the supply - demand relationship leads to a weak or downward - trending market [48][44]. - **Market Sentiment and Expectations**: Market sentiment and expectations play an important role in price fluctuations. For example, the sentiment in the coke and coking coal markets is fermenting, leading to wide - range fluctuations [58]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by geopolitical tensions. Gold has seen a nine - day decline, and silver has fallen from the shock platform. The market sentiment for platinum has eased, and palladium has slightly recovered [7][26]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The downward adjustment of the US dollar supports the copper price. The supply side is affected by factors such as mine production and accidents [11]. - **Zinc**: It shows a sideways shock pattern [14]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the lead price [17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [20]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuation has converged, while alumina shows a weak shock trend, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There are contradictions between macro and mine - end factors for nickel, leading to intensified short - term long - short games. Stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro factors but supported by real - world costs [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy**: - **Crude Oil - related**: Fuel oil shows a weak trend with increasing short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen sharply. LPG is affected by geopolitical risks, with frequent supply disruptions [125][115]. - **Coal**: Coking coal and coke markets are affected by market sentiment and show wide - range fluctuations.动力煤 has strong sentiment, and port transactions have moved up [58][64]. - **Chemicals**: - **Synthetic Rubber**: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, it shows wide - range intraday fluctuations [75]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's production continues to decline, and cost transmission is not smooth. PP's C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the spot price lags behind [79]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the short - term basis converges [83]. - **Methanol**: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the domestic fundamentals are improving [96]. - **Urea**: It operates within a range [102]. - **Styrene**: It shows high - level fluctuations [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, and the price is expected to be stable [112]. - **PVC**: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve [123]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by oil price fluctuations, it shows high - level fluctuations. Soybean oil has limited upward space due to weak soybean - related drivers [152]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight US soybean futures closed lower, and domestic soybean meal may show a weak shock. The soybean market is affected by the news of state - reserve sales and shows a weak shock [159]. - **Corn**: It shows a shock - running pattern [162]. - **Soft Commodities**: - **Sugar**: The increase in raw sugar prices drives up the price of Zhengzhou sugar [166]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [170]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They show a weak shock trend [177]. - **Pigs**: The pressure on the near - end increases due to the approaching weight - reduction drive [180]. - **Others**: - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro factors [184]. Others - **Log**: The demand has recovered, and the price has risen [67]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The shock center may move down, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions have eased [2][4]. - Silver: It has fallen off the oscillation platform [2][4]. - Copper: The downward adjustment of the US dollar supports the price [2][8]. - Zinc: It is in a sideways oscillation [2][11]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment [2][17]. - Aluminum: The volatility has converged; Alumina: It is in a weak oscillation; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: The market sentiment has eased; Palladium: It has slightly recovered [2][23]. - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro and the mine end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver showed significant changes. For example, the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closed at 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closed at 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures also had corresponding changes [4]. - **ETF and Inventory**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4, and the SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 265. The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 99 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 1,989,464 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US stock market rose, crude oil fell, and spot gold had a nine - day consecutive decline. There were also developments in the US - Iran dialogue and geopolitical situations [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,030 with a daily increase of 2.10%. The trading volume and positions of copper futures changed, with the Shanghai copper index trading volume decreasing by 63,541 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 11,405 tons, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 11,800 tons. The LME copper premium had a change of 5.74 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation, and the US and euro - zone PMI data changed. Zambia aimed to triple copper production by 2031, and some copper mines had operational changes [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22975 with a daily increase of 0.77%. The trading volume and positions of zinc futures changed, with the Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume increasing by 13509 [11]. - **News**: The US intended to have a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran, and there were changes in the US stock market and other financial markets [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16420 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of lead futures changed, with the Shanghai lead main contract trading volume decreasing by 14155 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 3456 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 725 tons [14]. - **News**: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation and changes in the PMI data of the US and euro - zone [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 347,970 with a daily increase of 2.94%. The trading volume and positions of tin futures changed, with the Shanghai tin main contract trading volume decreasing by 18,833 [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 426 tons, and the LME tin premium changed by - 39 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were diplomatic and energy - related news, such as the phone call between Wang Yi and the Iranian foreign minister [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices and trading volumes of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy futures had corresponding changes. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24020, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3041 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and LME aluminum ingots changed, and there were changes in premiums such as the Shanghai保税区Premium [21]. - **News**: There were developments in the US - Iran negotiation, and Iran charged passage fees for some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed increases. For example, the platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 487.40 with a 6.48% increase [24]. - **ETF and Inventory**: The platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,819 ounces, and the palladium ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 22,274 ounces [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about energy emergencies, political support rates, and gold - related policies [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,480, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,290. The trading volumes and positions of nickel and stainless steel futures changed [28]. - **Industry News**: There were developments in the nickel industry, such as the planned revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia, the restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala, and some mine accidents and production quota changes [28][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy showed a mixed performance in the first two months of 2026. Some indicators such as industrial added - value and service production index improved, while real - estate related indicators remained weak [2][18]. - The situation in the Middle East, especially the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has had a significant impact on the global energy and commodity markets, leading to supply disruptions and price fluctuations [11]. - The Sino - US economic and trade consultations are ongoing, and both sides are working towards promoting bilateral economic and trade relations [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, with M0, M1, and M2 showing year - on - year growth [1]. - CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment from January to February 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year [1][2]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic data for the first two months of 2026 showed that fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added - value increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and service production index increased by 5.2% year - on - year. However, real - estate investment and sales declined [2]. - Many banks tightened or exited the agency business of personal precious metals on the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2]. - The US launched a 301 investigation against 60 economies including China, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are ongoing [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley maintains the prediction that the Fed will restart interest rate cuts in June and cut rates again in September [5]. - Indonesia is considering imposing a "windfall tax" on commodities [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - The price of refined indium in China has been rising rapidly since 2026, more than doubling compared to the beginning of 2025 [6]. - Guinea is discussing controlling the supply of bauxite to protect against price drops [6]. - Bahrain Aluminium is shutting down 3 electrolytic aluminium production lines, accounting for 19% of its total annual capacity [6]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the aluminium industry chain, and the aluminium price may rise due to supply contraction [7]. - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased on March 16, 2026 [8]. - Metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange showed different trends on March 13, 2026 [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - India's JSW Steel Company obtained a coking coal mining project in Mozambique [9]. - From January to February 2026, the production of raw coal was stable, and the production of crude oil increased year - on - year [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to have over 100 million kilowatts of installed capacity for offshore wind power, and the installed capacity will double compared to the end of 2025 [10][24]. - International oil prices fluctuated after the US attack on Iran, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to supply disruptions and price increases [10][11]. - The EU plans to gradually phase out Russian oil [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Zhejiang issued a plan for precise fertilization of grain and oil crops to improve yields and efficiency [12]. - The quota for cotton import under the sliding - scale duty for processing trade in 2026 is 300,000 tons [12]. - Indonesia may impose additional tariffs on some commodities such as palm oil [13]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the global fertilizer supply chain, and urea prices have risen by about 30% [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 16, 2026, the central bank conducted 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan [14]. - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders on March 19, 2026, with an operation volume of 70 billion yuan for 21 - day and 180 billion yuan for 3 - month terms [14]. 3.3.2 Important News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Paris aimed to promote bilateral economic and trade relations [15][19]. - The State Council emphasized key tasks for economic and social development in 2026 and the "15th Five - Year Plan" [16]. - Shanghai adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30% [16]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration focused on risk resolution in key areas [17]. - China's economic indicators in the first two months of 2026 showed an overall positive trend [18]. - Many A - share companies' 2025 annual reports showed that emerging industries performed well [20]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources proposed to use existing land resources for real - estate development [20]. - China's foreign exchange market was generally stable in February 2026 [21]. - Many banks redeemed high - interest preferred stocks, causing difficulties in asset substitution [22]. - The wind power sector in the A - share market performed well [24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The Chinese bond market weakened, with yields of major interest - rate bonds rising and bond futures falling [27]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [27]. - The convertible bond index declined, and different convertible bonds had different price changes [28]. - Money market interest rates showed mixed trends [28]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds declined [30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 16, 2026, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 50 points [31]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income suggested a cautious attitude towards convertible bonds, waiting for opportunities, and focusing on certain sectors [32]. - Huatai Fixed - income also analyzed the transformation of land resources and the situation of the bond market [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that government bonds continued to play an important role in social financing growth, and the credit growth rate was expected to be around 7% - 8% in 2026 [33]. - Xingzheng Fixed - income analyzed the situation of convertible bonds, emphasizing the importance of equity judgment [33]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 17, 2026, 251 bonds will be listed, 178 bonds will be issued, 91 bonds will be paid, and 266 bonds will pay principal and interest [34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market recovered after a decline, with some sectors performing well and some performing poorly [35]. - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded strongly, with chip and pharmaceutical stocks leading the rise [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the key events and data releases in the current week and their potential impacts on the futures market. It suggests paying attention to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, geopolitical situations, and central bank decisions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Key Focus - On March 16 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the February report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [2][4]. - At 10:00 on March 16, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation, announcing macro - economic data for January - February 2026. Forecasts include a 2.1% year - on - year decline in cumulative urban fixed - asset investment (3.8% decline in 2025), a 5.0% year - on - year increase in industrial added value of large - scale industries (5.2% in December 2025), a 2.5% year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods (0.9% in December 2025), and an expected survey unemployment rate of 5.1%. Different data trends will have various impacts on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [2][5]. - From March 14 to 17, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France for economic and trade consultations with the US. The results and their impact on relevant futures prices should be monitored [2][8]. - At 21:15 on March 16, the Fed will release US industrial output for February, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% (0.7% previously). A slight decrease may slightly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metal futures prices but slightly benefit gold and silver futures prices [9]. - On March 17 at 11:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected 25 - basis - point increase to 4.10%. At 12:30, the RBA Governor will hold a press conference [10]. - At 22:00 on March 17, the National Association of Realtors will release the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index for February in the US, with an expected monthly rate of - 1% (- 0.8% previously) [11]. - At 18:00 on March 18, Eurostat will release the final CPI data for February in the Eurozone. Expected figures include a 1.9% un - seasonally adjusted annual rate (initial value 1.9%, final value in January 1.7%), a 0.7% monthly rate (initial value 0.7%, final value in January - 0.6%), and a 2.3% un - seasonally adjusted annual rate for core CPI (initial value 2.3%, final value in January 2.1%) [12]. - At 20:30 on March 18, the US Bureau of Labor will release the PPI for February. Expected monthly rates are 0.2% for PPI (0.5% previously) and 0.3% for core PPI (0.8% previously). The annual rates in January were 2.9% for PPI and 3.6% for core PPI [13]. - At 21:45 on March 18, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected overnight lending rate of 2.25% remaining unchanged. At 22:30, the Bank of Canada Governor and Deputy Governor will hold a press conference [14]. - At 22:00 on March 18, the US Department of Commerce will release the monthly rate of factory orders for January, with a previous value of - 0.7% [15]. - At 22:30 on March 18, the EIA will release the change in crude oil inventories for the week ending March 13. A continued increase will suppress the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. - At 02:00 on March 19, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary, with an expected unchanged federal funds rate. At 02:30, Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference. Attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy statement and Powell's speech and their impact on the futures market [17]. - At 11:00 on March 19, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged policy benchmark rate of 0.75%. At 14:30, the Bank of Japan Governor will hold a press conference [18]. - At 16:30 on March 19, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged first - quarter policy rate of 0% [19]. - At 20:00 on March 19, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate of 3.75% [20]. - At 20:30 on March 19, the US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14, with an expected 215,000 (213,000 previously). A slight increase may slightly benefit gold and silver futures prices and slightly suppress non - ferrous metal and crude oil futures prices [21]. - At 21:15 on March 19, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate. The main refinancing rate will remain at 2.15%, the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. At 21:45, ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [22]. - In March 19, the US Department of Commerce will release the seasonally adjusted new home sales data for January. The expected annualized total is 725,000 units (745,000 previously), and the expected monthly rate is - 2.7% (- 1.7% previously) [23]. - At 04:30 on March 20, the Fed will release its balance sheet as of March 18, with a previous value of $6.65 trillion [24]. - At 09:00 on March 20, the People's Bank of China will authorize the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce the LPR for March 2026. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values. This is expected to have a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report On March 10, 2026, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, crude oil futures to fluctuate weakly, and silver and tin futures to fluctuate strongly. Gold and copper futures are also expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - In 2026, new highlights in national legislation include formulating state - owned assets law, amending enterprise bankruptcy law and tax collection management law. Also, financial law and financial stability law will be formulated, and the People's Bank of China Law and the Banking Supervision and Administration Law will be amended. Legislative research in areas such as artificial intelligence will be strengthened [3]. - Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the recovery of consumption demand, China's CPI in February 2026 rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. Affected by international commodity prices, domestic demand growth, and macro - policies, the national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [3]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with foreign ministers of Kuwait and Bahrain, emphasizing the need to stop the war immediately [3]. - Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China will take necessary measures to ensure its energy security [3]. - US President Trump said the war with Iran may end soon, which led to a sharp drop in US crude oil prices. The G7 finance ministers discussed the oil price surge but did not decide to release strategic oil reserves. Japan has prepared to release oil reserves [4][5]. - Russian President Putin and US President Trump had a phone call, focusing on the Middle - East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process in Ukraine [5]. - Energy price surges are reshaping European interest - rate trading. The eurozone's Sentix confidence index in March dropped 7.3 points to - 3.1 [6]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits and fees for fuel oil futures, and the trading limits, price - limit ranges, and margin ratios for crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [6]. - On March 9, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with shipping, energy, and chemical products leading the gains. Base and precious metals mostly fell [6]. - On March 9, US crude oil futures fell 6.4%, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.13%. International precious - metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.19% and COMEX silver up 3.60%. London base metals were mixed [7]. - The US is considering seizing Iran's Kharg Island. South Korea will implement an oil price cap system. Saudi Aramco is selling crude oil in the spot market. Qatar Energy postponed a project. Ghana will implement a new gold royalty system. Four Chinese - funded nickel plants in Indonesia suspended production [8][9]. - On March 9, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 202 points, and the US dollar index fell 0.24% [10][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On March 9, major stock - index futures contracts such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all opened lower, with varying degrees of decline. The A - share market also closed down, and the Hong Kong stock market was volatile with strong south - bound capital inflows [10][11][12][13]. - In March 2026, major continuous contracts of stock - index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, they are expected to fluctuate strongly, with specified support and resistance levels [13][14]. Gold Futures - On March 9, the gold futures contract AU2604 closed down 0.08%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1162.0 and 1167.5 yuan/gram and support at 1132.0 and 1121.1 yuan/gram [30][31]. Silver Futures - On March 9, the silver futures contract AG2606 closed up 1.70%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 22584 and 22812 yuan/kilogram and support at 21369 and 21100 yuan/kilogram [33]. Copper Futures - On March 9, the copper futures contract CU2604 closed down 0.59%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 101700 and 102300 yuan/ton and support at 100000 and 99600 yuan/ton [37][38]. Tin Futures - On March 9, the tin futures contract SN2604 closed down 2.40%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 411900 and 407700 yuan/ton and support at 381100 and 375600 yuan/ton [43]. Crude Oil Futures - On March 9, the crude oil futures contract SC2604 closed up 16.99% at the daily limit. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with resistance at 818 and 824 yuan/barrel and support at 668 and 620 yuan/barrel [47][48]. Fuel Oil Futures - On March 9, the fuel oil futures contract FU2605 closed up 16.98% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly and may hit a new high. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [53]. Styrene Futures - On March 9, the styrene futures contract EB2604 closed up 8.99% at the daily limit. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [58][59]. PTA Futures - On March 9, the PTA futures contract TA605 closed up 7.01% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [59][60]. PVC Futures - On March 9, the PVC futures contract V2605 closed up 5.99% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [65][66]. Methanol Futures - On March 9, the methanol futures contract MA605 closed up 11.99%. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from March 9 to March 14, 2026, focusing on various economic data releases and their potential impact on the futures market. Key factors such as domestic macro - policies, international geopolitical situations, and speeches of relevant figures are also emphasized [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 March 9 - China's February CPI is predicted to grow 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.2%), and PPI is predicted to decline 1.2% year - on - year (previous value - 1.4%). If the CPI rises and PPI decline narrows, it will help commodity and stock index futures prices rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The expected value of the Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index is 3, with a previous value of 4.2 [4]. - The New York Fed will release the US February 1 - year inflation expectation, with a previous value of 3.1% [5]. 3.2 March 10 - Japan's Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is 0.3% (initial value 0.1%, Q3 revised value - 0.6%); the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% (initial value 0.2%, Q3 revised value - 2.3%) [6]. - China's January - February import and export data: exports are expected to grow 7% year - on - year (December 2025: 6.6%), and imports are expected to grow 6% year - on - year (December 2025: 5.7%). Higher growth rates will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures and suppress treasury bond futures [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the February 2026 China Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Situation Analysis Report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [9]. - China's February social financing scale increment is expected to be 1900 billion yuan (previous value 7220.8 billion yuan), new RMB loans are expected to be 850 billion yuan (previous value 4710 billion yuan), and the M2 balance is expected to grow 8.9% year - on - year (previous value 9.0%) [10]. - The US February existing home sales: the expected annualized total number is 3.9 million units (previous value 3.91 million units), and the expected annualized monthly rate is - 1.5% (previous value - 8.4%) [11]. 3.3 March 11 - The USDA will release the monthly supply - demand report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [12]. - The EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - OPEC will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [14]. - The US February CPI: the expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.4%), the expected seasonally - adjusted CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.2%), the expected unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.5%), and the expected unadjusted core CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.3%) [15]. - The EIA will release the change in US crude oil inventories for the week of March 6. A continued increase will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. 3.4 March 12 - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [19]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 are expected to be 215,000 (previous value 213,000). A slight increase will slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices [20]. 3.5 March 13 - The US January PCE price index: the expected annual rate is 2.8% (previous value 2.9%), the expected monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value 0.4%), the expected core PCE annual rate is 3.0% (previous value 3.0%), and the expected core PCE monthly rate is 0.4% (previous value 0.4%) [21]. - The US Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.4% (initial value 1.4%, Q3 2025 GDP annualized quarterly rate final value 4.4%) [22]. - The US January durable goods orders initial value: the expected monthly rate is 0.8% (previous value - 1.4%). A higher rate will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and suppress gold and silver futures prices [23]. - The US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value is expected to be 55 (previous value 56.6). A lower value will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and boost gold and silver futures prices [24]. 3.6 March 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in early March, covering 9 categories and 50 products [25].

Group 1 - The article outlines key economic indicators and reports scheduled for the week of February 16 to February 23, 2026, including industrial production, economic sentiment indices, and various agricultural and commodity reports [1][2][3]. - Significant reports include the Eurozone's December industrial output and the U.S. January industrial production, both of which are critical for assessing economic performance [1][3]. - The U.S. will release its December durable goods orders and trade balance, which are essential for understanding manufacturing and trade dynamics [2][3]. Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the USDA export inspection report and the NOPA monthly soybean crush report, which provide insights into agricultural commodity markets [1][2]. - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food monthly report and the global metal supply and demand report from the UK are also noted for their relevance to agricultural and metal sectors [2]. - The article mentions the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and API crude oil inventory report, which are crucial for gauging monetary policy and energy market trends [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish, with an expected downward trend due to weakening demand [2][4] - Rebar: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish - leaning, expected to have a weakening trend [2][10] - Ferromanganese: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][10] - Coke: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][13] - Coking coal: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][13] - Logs: Neutral, expected to trade within a range [2][17] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various black - series commodities are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, production data, and macro - economic indicators. Different products have different trend outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [4][6][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (-0.07%), and the position decreased by 9,039 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types remained unchanged. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month but fell 1.4% year - on - year. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4]. Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%), and the position decreased by 34,123 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.31%), and the position decreased by 18,682 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The trend intensity for both is 0 [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5, steel production data showed declines in rebar and hot - rolled coil output, increases in inventory, and decreases in apparent demand. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed changes. BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China's steel import data in December 2025 was released. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Price and Position Data**: For silicon iron, contracts 2603 and 2605 prices decreased. For manganese silicon, contracts 2603 and 2605 prices also decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon were given, along with various price differences. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia had new capacity ignition, and Jupiter may not supply and quote manganese ore to China in March [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,120 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.3%), and the closing price of J2605 was 1,664 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.2%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had different changes. The trend intensity for both is 0 [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 12, CCI metallurgical coal index data was released, and the coking coal online auction had a 33% failure rate, with an average premium of 7.67 yuan/ton [13]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes, and spot prices of different types of logs in different markets remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, CPI and PPI data were released, and China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].