Group 1 - The article outlines key economic indicators and reports scheduled for the week of February 16 to February 23, 2026, including industrial production, economic sentiment indices, and various agricultural and commodity reports [1][2][3]. - Significant reports include the Eurozone's December industrial output and the U.S. January industrial production, both of which are critical for assessing economic performance [1][3]. - The U.S. will release its December durable goods orders and trade balance, which are essential for understanding manufacturing and trade dynamics [2][3]. Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the USDA export inspection report and the NOPA monthly soybean crush report, which provide insights into agricultural commodity markets [1][2]. - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food monthly report and the global metal supply and demand report from the UK are also noted for their relevance to agricultural and metal sectors [2]. - The article mentions the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and API crude oil inventory report, which are crucial for gauging monetary policy and energy market trends [2][3].

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.5 | -0.07% | | | I2605 | | 762.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 497,918 | -9,039 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - **Eggs**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - **Corn**: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - **Red Dates**: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - **Pigs**: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - **Plastic**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - **Rubber**: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - **Methanol**: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - **Caustic Soda**: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - **Asphalt**: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - **PVC**: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - **Logs**: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - **Urea**: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Demand expectations are weakening, and prices are oscillating downward [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The apparent demand is weakening month-on-month, with wide fluctuations [2][8] - Silico-manganese and ferrosilicon: The sentiment in the sector is weak, with wide fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Long positions are taking profits, and the market is oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Demand expectations are poor, and prices are falling [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 1,361 lots to 513,384 lots. Among the spot prices, the price of imported ore increased slightly, while the price of domestic ore decreased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the RB2605 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,064 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 0.84%. For the HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan or 0.55%. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on February 5th, the production of rebar decreased by 8.15 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.05 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 44.04 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil increased by 3.62 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that for hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the production and inventory of key steel enterprises showed different trends. BHP Billiton's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Silico-manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the silicon iron 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,610 yuan/ton and 5,594 yuan/ton respectively, down 24 yuan and 30 yuan. The closing prices of the manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,778 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton respectively, down 38 yuan and 44 yuan. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon also showed certain changes, and the price differences between futures and spot, near and far months, and cross-varieties also had corresponding adjustments [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions were reported. NMT announced the March 2026 manganese ore shipment price to China, with an increase. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of silicon iron and manganese silicon in February [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.7%. The closing price of the J2605 coke futures contract was 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.3%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction on the same day had a high rejection rate, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest also had certain changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions remained stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market has been significantly reversed, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently in the near future due to the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - Precious metals have entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels before the spring consumption in the Northern Hemisphere is falsified, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and the performance of pre - holiday inventory is worse than in previous years [5]. - The prices of most commodities are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [2 - 47]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran situation eases, leading to a sharp reversal of geopolitical premium. Brent and WTI futures fall to $66/barrel and $62/barrel respectively, and SC to 450 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, strengthening of the US dollar, and rising expectations of US - Iran peace talks, oil products weaken. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than crude oil, and the high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [20]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited range. Supply pressure is limited, and consumption improves year - on - year. The search for alternative crude oil supports the near - month futures contract [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they showed a weak oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in the US exceeded expectations, and the US dollar continued to rebound. They are in a consolidation phase, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The selling pressure is relatively limited. It is supported by the MA40 moving average. It may oscillate at high levels in Q1, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, it rebounded slightly. The spot premium and discount decreased, and the inventory increased. The price is under short - term pressure [5]. - **Zinc**: After the previous over - rise, the price corrected rapidly. It may enter a sideways consolidation after testing the cost support [7]. - **Lead**: The risk of soft squeeze in the warehouse is reduced. The demand is weak, and the price may be supported at 16,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel collapsed. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [8]. - **Tin**: It broke below the MA40 moving average, and may continue to decline to the MA60 [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It hit the daily limit down. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The price may oscillate at high levels, and the short - term uncertainty is high [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price corrected. The spot manganese ore price decreased slightly. The supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. The demand has some resilience, and the supply changes little. The price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price fell to around 47,000 yuan/ton. The industry is trying to curb involution, but the demand boost is limited, and the de - stocking is difficult. The futures price will continue to be under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by 50% in February. The downstream demand is also weakening. The short - term price will oscillate [12]. - **Urea**: The spot price is stable with a downward trend. The production is increasing, and the demand from the industrial downstream is weakening. It is expected to oscillate within a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fell. The overseas device operation rate decreased, and the domestic supply increased. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday stocking reduced the inventory in East China ports. The supply will increase, and the price may decline after returning to the fundamental trading logic [24]. - **Styrene**: The price is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The decline in oil prices weakens the cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda may also oscillate strongly as the cost support strengthens [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the sharp decline in oil prices, the prices fell. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern in the short - term but is affected by the decline in raw materials. Bottle - chip has some improvement in processing margin, but the long - term capacity pressure exists [30]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It oscillated strongly at night. There is a risk of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, but the current valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [31]. - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell. The supply is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak [32]. - **Soda Ash**: It oscillated widely. The inventory is increasing, and the supply is at a high level. It is under long - term supply - demand surplus pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is weak. Brazilian soybean harvesting is in the early stage, and the yield is expected to be a record high. US soybeans may be further pressured. The domestic soybean crushing volume will decrease in February [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The rise of oils is driven by macro - factors. After the macro - risk premium is reversed, they are adjusting rapidly [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The import of Australian rapeseed will ease the supply pressure in the future. The supply is expected to be looser, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: It is affected by the macro - market adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - market guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The national grain sales progress is close to 60%. The price is declining, and the trading is dull before the Spring Festival. The futures price may oscillate weakly [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is adjusting strongly at the beginning of the month, while the futures price is weak. There is a risk of a second bottom - finding for the pig price in the medium - to - long - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The pre - holiday high of the spot price has passed, and it will be weak after the Spring Festival. There is an upward momentum for the egg price in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point and then buy [40]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend may oscillate. The overall supply and sales are booming, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand [41]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the production progress in India and Thailand varies. Domestically, the market focuses on the production volume difference. The short - term price faces pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The pre - holiday inventory is in the peak period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand [43]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The low inventory supports the price [44]. - **Pulp**: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes declined significantly. The short - term adjustment is mainly due to the release of profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events and market risk - preference changes [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year treasury bond futures led the rise. The strategy is to continue the box - type oscillation, and pay attention to the curve - steepening and flattening opportunities [47].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The stock market experienced a decline on February 2, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4015.75 points, down 2.48% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell to 13824.35 points, a decrease of 2.69% [1] - The ChiNext Index reported a drop to 3264.11 points, down 2.46% [1] - The brokerage index decreased by 1.34%, while the insurance index fell by 1.58% [1] - Total stock trading volume for the day was 25,847.66 billion yuan, with the SW Securities II sector accounting for 423.44 billion yuan, representing 1.64% of the total trading volume [1] - The margin trading balance from the previous trading day was 27,152.51 billion yuan [1] - The yield on 10-year government bonds was measured at 1.8200% [1] Company Announcements - **Yalian Development**: Mr. Cai Min resigned from his position as Vice General Manager on February 2, 2026, and will not hold any position in the company or its subsidiaries thereafter [1] - **Jinlong Co., Ltd.**: Mr. Wang Tianguang resigned from his roles as Director and Vice Chairman of the Board, and will not hold any position in the company or its subsidiaries thereafter [2] - **CITIC Securities**: Announced a cash dividend distribution of 0.29 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 4,297,958,580.41 yuan (including tax) based on a total share capital of 14,820,546,829 shares [2] - **Southwest Securities**: Received approval from the CSRC to publicly issue corporate bonds with a total face value not exceeding 14 billion yuan, valid for 24 months from the date of approval [2] - **Xiangyi Rongtong**: Agreed to guarantee credit business contracts with Jiangsu Bank Hangzhou Branch, with a maximum debt amount of 200 million yuan, including principal and related interest and fees [2] Important News - **Central Bank**: On February 2, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with both the bidding and winning amounts being 750 billion yuan [3] - **Ministry of Finance**: Issued a temporary method for the deduction of input tax on long-term assets, effective from January 1, 2026 [4] - **National Bureau of Statistics**: The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction [5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January was 49.4%, also down by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [5]

Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of approximately 4403 before rebounding to over 4812, indicating a volatile trading session [1] - The support zone identified between 4410-4400 was validated, allowing for profitable long positions to be established [2] - The 60-day moving average at the 4410-4400 range served as a significant technical support level, reinforcing the decision to enter long positions [3] Fundamental Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity [6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for gold futures exacerbated selling pressure, leading to a cycle of forced liquidations [6] - A strengthening U.S. dollar and heightened market volatility contributed to reduced demand for gold, as it became more expensive for holders of other currencies [7] Market Sentiment - Despite the short-term drop in gold prices, there are still indicators supporting a bullish market, such as the quick rebound after the decline and continued positive outlooks from major financial institutions [8] - The market structure is adjusting, with the exit of high-leverage speculative traders potentially setting a healthier foundation for future price increases [9] Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The actual policy stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve chair will be crucial in determining gold's trajectory, particularly regarding interest rates and liquidity [9] - The resilience of macroeconomic data, especially in light of uncertainties surrounding trade policies and government shutdowns, will impact gold's appeal as a safe haven [9] - Market confidence and the flow of funds into gold ETFs will be critical in assessing whether the current volatility is a short-term phenomenon or indicative of a longer-term trend [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is rising at a high level, with overseas geopolitical risks rapidly increasing. The macro - environment has both supporting and restrictive factors for non - ferrous metals prices. Different metals have different trends and influencing factors, with some showing high - level shocks, some adjusting, and some continuing to rise [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level shock in the range of 98,500 - 105,000 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supported by strong macro - factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, loose monetary policy in 2026, and a 40% increase in power grid investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan", as well as overseas geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar, and strong precious metals. However, the fundamentals are weak, with falling ore processing fees, increasing smelting losses, and low consumption due to the off - season and high copper prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons, and spot transactions are light. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level with limited upside potential. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to inventory changes and policy implementation progress [2]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: High - level adjustment [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has also risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. New production capacity is being put into operation. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate has increased slightly, but overall demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation speed has slowed down. Aluminum prices are affected by capital sentiment and are expected to remain in high - level shock in the short term [2]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Stabilize and rebound, high - level shock [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and production may shrink in January due to some smelter maintenance. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc ingots is low. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China is 119,000 tons, remaining basically unchanged from last week. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain high - level shock [2]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Range shock between 16,800 - 17,200 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: LME and COMEX lead inventories have increased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories have decreased. Lead prices have fallen, and downstream transactions have weakened, putting pressure on futures prices. In the long term, lead prices may show a shock - consolidation trend, and it is recommended to operate within the range [2]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: High - level shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by news from Indonesia, nickel prices are strong, but the spot inventory is accumulating, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the upward momentum of nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both nickel and stainless steel [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supply remains tight, and prices are strongly fluctuating. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and downstream demand is in rigid need. Overseas raw material supply disturbances need to be noted. It is expected that tin prices will continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Wide - range shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Production and inventory of industrial silicon have changed. The production of polysilicon has decreased, and the photovoltaic industry has mixed trends. If a large - scale industrial silicon producer in Xinjiang cuts production by half, it will drive up industrial silicon prices. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at the current position [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by mining permit disturbances in Yichun, supply - side risks exist. Downstream demand for exports is strong, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected that prices will continue to show a strong shock [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data China - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the LPR remained unchanged in January 2026 [13][15][16][18]. USA - The average weekly new employment in the US ADP was 8,000, lower than the previous value of 11,750. The PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the real GDP quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years [19][21][22]. 3.3 Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released next week, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, consumer confidence indexes, and inflation - related data [24].