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白糖周报:白糖市场震荡寻底,供应宽松与成本支撑博弈-20260209
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 11:40
Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates to Find the Bottom, with Loose Supply and Cost Support in Game - Sugar Weekly Report from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao, with Practicing Certificate No. F03117249 and Transaction Consultation No. Z0022644, contact: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current sugar market is in the bottom - oscillating stage, with the long - and short - term forces in a game between the expectation of loose supply and cost support. In the short term, the market lacks a unilateral driving force and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. It is predicted that in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the main sugar contract will continue to oscillate in the range of 5150 - 5280 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - number sugar continuous contract's closing price decreased by 1.05% week - on - week, the Zheng sugar main contract's closing price decreased by 0.38% week - on - week. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 0.75%, 0.75%, and 0.78% respectively, while Rizhao Lingyunhai's price remained unchanged. The Liuzhou sugar and main contract basis narrowed by 27.78% week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.81% week - on - week, and the effective forecast increased by 287.64% week - on - week. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial positions increased by 25.36% week - on - week. The bullish, bearish, and neutral proportions of Zheng sugar remained unchanged [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Main Producing Areas**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Main Producing Areas**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: Import profit margins have expanded. The profit of Thai sugar processing within the quota increased by 4.95% week - on - week to 1887 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota increased by 16.69% week - on - week to 825 yuan/ton [4] - **China's Main Sugar Importing Countries**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The processing cost of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 1.89% week - on - week to 3892 yuan/ton, and outside the quota decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 4961 yuan/ton. The processing cost of Thai sugar within the quota decreased by 2.45% week - on - week to 3869 yuan/ton, and outside the quota decreased by 2.49% week - on - week to 4931 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Shipping Costs**: Not detailed in the provided content