白糖市场震荡寻底
Search documents
白糖周报:白糖市场震荡寻底,供应宽松与成本支撑博弈-20260209
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 11:40
Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates to Find the Bottom, with Loose Supply and Cost Support in Game - Sugar Weekly Report from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao, with Practicing Certificate No. F03117249 and Transaction Consultation No. Z0022644, contact: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current sugar market is in the bottom - oscillating stage, with the long - and short - term forces in a game between the expectation of loose supply and cost support. In the short term, the market lacks a unilateral driving force and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. It is predicted that in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the main sugar contract will continue to oscillate in the range of 5150 - 5280 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - number sugar continuous contract's closing price decreased by 1.05% week - on - week, the Zheng sugar main contract's closing price decreased by 0.38% week - on - week. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 0.75%, 0.75%, and 0.78% respectively, while Rizhao Lingyunhai's price remained unchanged. The Liuzhou sugar and main contract basis narrowed by 27.78% week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.81% week - on - week, and the effective forecast increased by 287.64% week - on - week. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial positions increased by 25.36% week - on - week. The bullish, bearish, and neutral proportions of Zheng sugar remained unchanged [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Main Producing Areas**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Main Producing Areas**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: Import profit margins have expanded. The profit of Thai sugar processing within the quota increased by 4.95% week - on - week to 1887 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota increased by 16.69% week - on - week to 825 yuan/ton [4] - **China's Main Sugar Importing Countries**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The processing cost of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 1.89% week - on - week to 3892 yuan/ton, and outside the quota decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 4961 yuan/ton. The processing cost of Thai sugar within the quota decreased by 2.45% week - on - week to 3869 yuan/ton, and outside the quota decreased by 2.49% week - on - week to 4931 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Shipping Costs**: Not detailed in the provided content
白糖周报:白糖市场震荡寻底,供应压力与成本支撑博弈加剧-20260129
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 04:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current sugar market is in a bottom - oscillating phase, with the core contradiction being the intense game between strong supply pressure and strong cost support. The market is expected to continue to oscillate within the core range of 5100 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the direction selection requires new drivers. In the short term, prices will repeatedly test around the cost line and are unlikely to have a trend - breaking breakthrough [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The 11 - sugar continuous contract closed at 14.73 this Friday, down 1.54% week - on - week; the Zhengzhou sugar main contract closed at 5180, down 1.48% week - on - week. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all declined, with Liuzhou's spot price down 0.94% to 5290 yuan/ton. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 34.15% to 110 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.70% to 13745, and the effective forecast decreased by 63.64% to 132. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 4.22%. The long positions in CFTC non - commercial positions increased by 4.14%, the short positions increased by 0.11%, and the net long positions increased by 7.63%. The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar decreased by 10 percentage points to 10%, the bearish ratio increased by 10 percentage points to 60%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - No specific content provided 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - No specific content provided 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - No specific content provided 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China - No specific content provided 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China - No specific content provided 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - No specific content provided 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - No specific content provided 2.6 China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - No specific content provided 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost increased by 3.42% to 4021, and the out - quota processing cost increased by 3.51% to 5130. The in - quota import profit decreased by 8.47% to 1728, and the out - quota import profit decreased by 24.39% to 620. The premium increased by 166.67% to 0.16, and the shipping cost increased by 11.03% to 36.85. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.94% to 4000, and the out - quota processing cost increased by 2.00% to 5102. The in - quota import profit decreased by 5.51% to 1750, and the out - quota import profit decreased by 16.28% to 648. The premium remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost - No specific content provided
白糖周报:白糖市场震荡寻底,成本支撑与供应压力博弈-20251020
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 09:24
Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates to Find the Bottom: A Battle between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from October 13 - 17, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current sugar market is in an oscillating bottom - finding stage. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between global supply growth (Brazil's sugar production increased by 10.76% year - on - year) and domestic cost support (production cost of 5400 yuan). The price will oscillate in the range of 5350 - 5450 yuan, and the effectiveness of cost support should be noted [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The 11 - number sugar continuous contract's closing price dropped by 3.73% to 15.5; the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 1.53% to 5412 yuan/ton; the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.34% to 0.70%. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract expanded by 17.32% to 298 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.06% to 8418. The proportion of bullish sentiment towards Zhengzhou sugar dropped by 5 percentage points to 15%, the bearish proportion increased by 10 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral proportion decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the given content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the given content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the given content 2.2 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Cane Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.3 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Beet Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the given content 2.5 China's Sugar Import and Export - Not elaborated in the given content 2.6 China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - Not elaborated in the given content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - Brazil's in - quota processing cost decreased by 4.18% to 4177 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 4.27% to 5332 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 9.97% to 1743 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 56.95% to 587 yuan. The premium and discount decreased by 600% to - 0.3, and the shipping cost increased by 0.70% to 38.9 yuan. Thailand's in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.44% to 4236 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 2.49% to 5410 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 5.06% to 1683 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 28.79% to 510 yuan. The premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 yuan [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.2 Sugar - Cane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.5 Sugar Import and Export in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums, Discounts, and Shipping Costs - Not elaborated in the given content