白糖市场震荡寻底，供应宽松与成本支撑博 弈 --白糖周报2026-02-02至2026-02-06 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格小幅走弱，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.75%至5280元/吨， | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 市场情绪偏空。期货价格跌幅更大，柳州基差收窄至52元/吨，环比大幅收窄 | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 27.78%，反映期货端对供应压力更为敏感。 | 在成本支撑与供 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约价格周内震荡，收盘价周环比微跌0.38%至5228元/吨。 | 应压力下，于 | | | 持仓量环比减少1.16%至44.69万手，显示资金观望情绪较浓，市场波动率有所收 | 5150-5280元/吨 | | | 敛。 | 区间内延续震荡 | | | 【供应方面】：国内处于压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期明确。仓单及有效预报合 | 格局。 | | | 计环比增长3.6%至1 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 白糖市场震荡寻底，供应压力与成本支撑博 弈加剧 --白糖周报2026年01月19日-01月23日 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格弱势下行，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.94%至5290元/吨。 | | | | 市场情绪偏空，看跌比例高达60%。基差走强至110元/吨，环比大增34.15%，反映 | | | | 期货跌幅大于现货。 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度收于5180元/吨，周环比下跌1.48%。价格区间震荡， | | | | 持仓量周内增加9.36%至466645手，显示多空分歧加剧。波动率维持高位，价格在 | 继续在5100- | | | 5124-5278元/吨区间内反复。 | 5250元/吨的核 | | | | 心区间内震荡运 | | | 【供应方面】：国内正值压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期强烈。仓单及有效预报合 | | | ...

Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates to Find the Bottom: A Battle between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from October 13 - 17, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current sugar market is in an oscillating bottom - finding stage. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between global supply growth (Brazil's sugar production increased by 10.76% year - on - year) and domestic cost support (production cost of 5400 yuan). The price will oscillate in the range of 5350 - 5450 yuan, and the effectiveness of cost support should be noted [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The 11 - number sugar continuous contract's closing price dropped by 3.73% to 15.5; the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 1.53% to 5412 yuan/ton; the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.34% to 0.70%. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract expanded by 17.32% to 298 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.06% to 8418. The proportion of bullish sentiment towards Zhengzhou sugar dropped by 5 percentage points to 15%, the bearish proportion increased by 10 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral proportion decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the given content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the given content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the given content 2.2 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Cane Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.3 Production and Sales of Main Sugar - Beet Producing Areas in China - Not elaborated in the given content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the given content 2.5 China's Sugar Import and Export - Not elaborated in the given content 2.6 China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - Not elaborated in the given content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - Brazil's in - quota processing cost decreased by 4.18% to 4177 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 4.27% to 5332 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 9.97% to 1743 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 56.95% to 587 yuan. The premium and discount decreased by 600% to - 0.3, and the shipping cost increased by 0.70% to 38.9 yuan. Thailand's in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.44% to 4236 yuan, and the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 2.49% to 5410 yuan. The in - quota import profit increased by 5.06% to 1683 yuan, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 28.79% to 510 yuan. The premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 yuan [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.2 Sugar - Cane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.5 Sugar Import and Export in Brazil - Not elaborated in the given content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums, Discounts, and Shipping Costs - Not elaborated in the given content