1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, which met market expectations. The BZN spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased. The overall valuation is moderately low. - The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side may enter a peak season. The downstream three - S开工率 has a seasonal rebound. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, there is a game between strong macro - expectations and weak reality, and the futures price may consolidate at a low level. - This week's forecast: the reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5900 - 6200); for styrene (EB2510), it is (6900 - 7200). It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, meeting market expectations [11]. - Valuation: Styrene's weekly increase (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakened, the BZN spread rose, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased [11]. - Cost: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.68%, and the pure benzene operating rate oscillated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of EB was 75%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.90%, a year - on - year increase of 9.17%, and a decrease of 3.85% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. Under the background of high operating rates, the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and export: In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.0788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.27%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in July was 221,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports oscillated at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three - S was 45.44%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The PS operating rate was 62.50%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 12.71%. The EPS operating rate was 61.50%, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52%. The ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% and a year - on - year increase of 8.50%. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and downstream demand has slightly improved [11]. - Inventory: The in - plant EB inventory was 215,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12% and a year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports was 159,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92% and a year - on - year increase of 386.24%. The port inventory continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Summary: The Fed's interest - rate meeting ended with a 25 - bp rate cut, meeting market expectations. The BZN spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreased. The overall valuation is moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side may enter a peak season. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, there is a game between strong macro - expectations and weak reality, and the futures price may consolidate at a low level [11]. - Forecast for this week: Pure benzene (BZ2603): reference oscillation range (5900 - 6200); Styrene (EB2510): reference oscillation range (6900 - 7200). - Recommended strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: Charts show the inventory of styrene in East China ports, factories, and pure benzene ports from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37] - Profit: The profit of styrene has slightly rebounded. Charts show the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM processes, the production process proportion, and the capacity proportion of the top ten styrene producers [41][43][46] 3.4 Cost Side - Pure benzene production and supply: In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. There are many new production plans for pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025, with a total planned new pure benzene production capacity of 2.28 million tons [56][57] - Price spread: The US - South Korea pure benzene price spread fluctuates upward with the US gasoline cracking spread. The BZN spread and pure benzene import profit are also affected by relevant factors [63][65][67] - Downstream inventory: The inventory of caprolactam in factories is oscillating at a high level. The downstream demand for pure benzene is mainly from styrene, caprolactam, phenol, etc. [92][95][96] 3.5 Supply Side - Production shortage: Starting from the third quarter of 2025, there will be a shortage of styrene, and the gap may gradually narrow. The total planned new styrene production capacity in 2025 is 242,000 tons, while the downstream demand is large [103][106][108] - Maintenance and production: In September, there are many planned maintenance activities, and the styrene production has declined from the same - period high [115] 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream production capacity: Forecasts of the production capacity of styrene's downstream 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) are provided, including historical production capacity, output, and growth rates [126][127] - Operating rate: The operating rates of EPS and PS have improved seasonally, and the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level [131][139] - End - product consumption: The production of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners is also presented, which is related to the demand for styrene downstream products [152][160][165]