Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The release of the National Development and Reform Commission's document has reignited expectations for alumina capacity expansion, and the positive policy has given a bullish impetus to the sentiment of alumina. Recently, the alumina futures price has been in a value depression below the cost, and the market's willingness to go long at the low level is relatively concentrated. However, the current situation and expectation of alumina surplus in the fundamentals have not changed. In the short term, it is more of an emotional rebound, and the subsequent continuous height is restricted. Caution should be exercised when chasing up. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of supply-side policies or supply reduction [2][6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From December 19th to December 26th, 2025, the price of alumina futures (active) increased from 2,500 yuan/ton to 2,793 yuan/ton, a rise of 293 yuan/ton; the price of domestic alumina spot decreased from 2,758 yuan/ton to 2,697 yuan/ton, a drop of 61 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 258 yuan/ton to 61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 197 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Australian alumina decreased from 309 US dollars/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, a drop of 1 US dollar/ton; the import profit and loss decreased from 5.64 yuan/ton to -45.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.05 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 179,799 tons to 160,829 tons, a decrease of 18,970 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained unchanged, and the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased from 70 US dollars/ton to 68.5 US dollars/ton, a drop of 1.5 US dollars/ton [3] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main alumina futures contract fell 5.65% to close at 2,555 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,831 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In terms of bauxite, the supply of domestic ore market is stable, but the price pressure still exists from bottom to top; in terms of imported ore, the mining enterprises in Guinea that were affected by government control and stopped production have resumed production, the newly-built mining enterprises are gradually stabilizing production, and the state-owned mining enterprises in Guinea have also recently announced the start of mining operations, and the subsequent ore supply is expected to increase successively. On the supply side, the alumina supply is basically stable, the domestic alumina production capacity remains stable, and the import of alumina is expected to be gradually realized with the arrival of the goods. As of December 25th, the installed alumina production capacity in China was 114.8 million tons, the operating production capacity was 94.45 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.27%. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to release new production capacity, the operating production capacity increased compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 161,000 tons last Friday, a decrease of 19,000 tons within the week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 0 tons, remaining unchanged [4] 3. Market Outlook - The situation is similar to the core viewpoints, with the release of the National Development and Reform Commission's document reigniting expectations for alumina capacity expansion. The supply and demand fundamentals of the alumina market on the supply side have not changed much, the alumina production remains at a relatively high level, the supply is generally sufficient, and although the start-up of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, the demand increase is relatively limited. The market's low-level long positions are relatively concentrated, but the current surplus situation and expectations have not changed, so it is a short-term emotional rebound, and caution should be exercised when chasing up. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of supply-side policies or supply reduction [6] 4. Industry News - Nanshan Aluminum International Holding Co., Ltd. announced that its alumina expansion project in Indonesia has been officially put into operation, and the group's total designed annual alumina production capacity has increased to 4 million tons. The new alumina production project is being promoted efficiently in two phases: the first phase with an annual output of 1 million tons of alumina was put into production in the third quarter of 2025; subsequently, the second phase with an annual output of 1 million tons of alumina was also fully put into operation on December 20, 2025 [7] - Guinea's Minister of Mines, Bouna Sylla, recently announced that the country will accelerate the construction of alumina refineries and iron ore pellet plants to end decades of exporting only raw ores. This week, Guinea's large Simandou iron ore is about to start the first batch of ore shipments [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange increased the alumina storage capacity and adjusted the premium in Xinjiang region. The storage capacity of several warehouses in Xinjiang was increased, and the regional premium will be adjusted from 380 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton starting from March 4, 2026 [7] 5. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of alumina futures, spot prices, spot premiums, alumina cost and profit, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, and alumina exchange inventory, etc. These charts visually show the price and inventory changes of relevant products over time [9][13][15]