1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The supply side is tight, the demand side is generally stable but with weak new demand, and the macro - sentiment is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 27, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 95,820 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price on March 26, 2026, was 12,120 US dollars/ton, down from the previous day. The premium of flat - water copper strengthened, rising to - 100 yuan/ton, while the premiums of premium copper and wet - process copper remained stable [1][39]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On March 26, 2026, the LME copper futures position increased slightly to 296,463 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous day, indicating a slight increase in market participation. There is no direct data on trading volume [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Mine supply is continuously tight. The commissioning of Rio Tinto's Resolution copper mine is delayed until the 2030s, and Barrick has postponed the development of the Reko Diq project in Pakistan, increasing medium - and long - term supply uncertainty. The supply of recycled copper is tight, leading to a narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference and a significant decline in the domestic trade copper concentrate processing fee. Chile faces a risk of sulfuric acid shortage, which may push up smelting costs and suppress short - term production capacity release [2]. - **Demand Side**: Overall demand is stable but shows obvious differentiation. The SMM copper cable production start - up rate increased slightly by 0.24 percentage points to 70.77%. However, the demand in the home appliance field is weakening, and the new orders in the home decoration and enameled wire industries are weak due to the rising price of plastic raw materials. The automobile field provides some support, but new orders decreased by 11.19 percentage points month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Domestic inventory continues the destocking trend. On March 26, 2026, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas decreased by 18.29% month - on - month, decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The LME inventory on March 27, 2026, dropped to 237,076 tons, a 3.8% decrease month - on - month, but the absolute level is still at a near - 8 - year high. The SHFE inventory increased slightly to 360,250 tons, reflecting the pressure of imported goods arriving at the port, but the expectation of destocking is rising [2]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The driving reasons are tight supply (mine shutdowns and recycled copper shortages support costs), generally stable demand (existing orders support but new demand is weak), and macro - sentiment being disturbed by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East (escalation of conflicts may suppress risk appetite). The price range is 12,000 - 12,500 US dollars/ton for LME copper and 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper [3].

Performance Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the S&P 500 index revenue growth was 6.0%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q3, marking the highest level since Q4 2023[7] - The S&P 500 index EPS growth for Q4 2025 was 15.6%, significantly exceeding the previous forecast of 8.0% and the ten-year median of 7.0%[8] - The operating costs for the S&P 500 index increased by 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reflecting manageable cost pressures despite tariff impacts[7] Sector Insights - The technology sector continued to drive growth, contributing approximately 64% to the S&P 500's earnings growth, up from 40% in Q3[18] - The industrial sector saw a significant EPS growth of 26.5% in Q4 2025, driven by increased defense spending and manufacturing policy shifts[24] - The healthcare sector's EPS growth fell to 0.5%, down 4.8 percentage points from Q3, due to competitive pressures and cost increases from tariffs[22] Market Trends - The shift towards cyclical sectors has been notable, with cyclical stocks outperforming technology stocks since early 2026[5] - Concerns over AI sustainability and geopolitical tensions have led to a preference for heavy asset sectors, reinforcing the relative strength of cyclical stocks[4] - The capital expenditure growth for the S&P 500 was 31.5% in Q4 2025, with the "Mag7" companies leading at 74.0%[14] Economic Outlook - The Philadelphia Fed's latest economic forecast suggests that U.S. economic growth will peak in the third quarter of 2026 before slowing down[29] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to keep asset prices under pressure until clarity is achieved[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has reached a new low, increasing the expectation of tight ore supply. Overseas geopolitical situations affect economic growth expectations, causing copper prices to decline. Smelters maintain a high production level, and as copper prices fall, the upstream's willingness to hold back goods and raise prices increases, and the willingness to release scattered orders decreases. On the demand side, downstream copper product processing plants increase their replenishment operations at low prices, and the trading in the spot market has improved. In terms of inventory, stimulated by the traditional consumption peak season and the decline in copper prices, consumption demand has improved, and the inflection point of copper social inventory has emerged with obvious destocking. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and warming consumption, with industrial inventory destocking. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.17, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,198.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 123 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 190,325 hands, a decrease of 2,133 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 59,567 hands, a decrease of 4,791 hands. The LME copper inventory is 360,175 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 411,121 tons, a decrease of 22,337 tons. The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 246,441 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 588,680 short tons, an increase of 461 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 68 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The LME copper spot - forward spread (0 - 3) is - 71.23 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, a decrease of 31.28 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 85,920 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; the copper concentrate price in Yunnan is 86,620 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The processing fee for refined copper in the south is 1,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the processing fee for refined copper in the north is 1,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan. The production of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.211 billion yuan, a decrease of 731.76 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, an increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.08%, a decrease of 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 34.92%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 23.17%, a decrease of 0.0167. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, a decrease of 0.1334 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. Iran rejects the US cease - fire proposal, but the White House says the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker claims the Iran war is "nearly over", and the US military's troop deployment in the Middle East is a warning. Iran is prepared for further escalation. The US is trying to arrange a meeting in Pakistan to discuss an "exit plan" for the US - Iran war. - The Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations states that non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumes new bookings for ordinary containers to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, but its ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang has a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen political mutual trust, promote cooperation in green and innovation fields, and hopes the Netherlands will play an active role in promoting China - EU relations. - As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power is 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. - The US - Israel military action against Iran fails to meet expectations, and both sides' high - level officials shift the blame. US President Trump blames the Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff, and in Israel, the head of Mossad is accused of misleading the governments. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan says the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and suggests gradually cutting interest rates to a neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the impact of oil prices. - European Central Bank President Lagarde says the ECB will take decisive action if the soaring energy costs lead to broader inflation, but is still assessing the impact of the Middle East situation and will adjust policies if necessary [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 40.1 yuan [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 reached 41.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.00% to 4.005 billion yuan [2][7]. - The report highlights that the profit from electrolytic aluminum continues to recover, but coal asset impairment has negatively impacted overall performance [7]. - The company achieved a gross profit of 9.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year increase, despite facing significant impairment losses totaling 1.256 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s production and sales of coal and aluminum products have shown stability, with production of coal at 7.1653 million tons and sales at 7.2168 million tons, both reflecting year-on-year increases [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Financial Metrics**: - Total revenue: 41,241 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 7.5% - Net profit: 4,005 million yuan - Year-on-year decline: -7.0% - Earnings per share: 1.78 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 16 times [2][8]. - **2026-2028 Projections**: - Expected net profit for 2026: 8,055 million yuan (growth of 101.1%) - Expected net profit for 2027: 8,548 million yuan (growth of 6.1%) - Expected net profit for 2028: 9,034 million yuan (growth of 5.7%) [2][7]. Production and Sales Overview - The company achieved full production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in 2025, with production and sales balanced [7]. - Coal production was 7.1653 million tons, with sales at 7.2168 million tons, marking increases of 6% and 8% respectively [7]. - The production of carbon products and aluminum foil also saw significant year-on-year growth, with carbon products up 32% and aluminum foil up 12% [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group (01378) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 5%, attributed to its recent share buyback announcement and strong financial performance [3] Financial Performance - The company reported an annual revenue of approximately 162.35 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 4.0% [3] - Shareholders' net profit for the year was approximately 22.64 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of about 1.2% [3] Share Buyback - On March 23, the company announced a share buyback plan, spending 808 million HKD to repurchase 25.9 million shares [3] - The board indicated that the current stock price deviates from its value and does not rule out further buybacks depending on market conditions [3] - The total planned buyback for 2025 is approximately 306 million shares, with an expected total expenditure of around 5.58 billion HKD [3] Cash Flow and Valuation - Western Securities noted that the company's annual performance met expectations, highlighting strong operating cash flow as a key positive aspect [3] - Future cash flow expectations are anticipated to be robust, supporting an improvement in the company's fundamentals and valuation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The price of copper is under pressure due to the strong US dollar [1] - The trend strength of copper is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 94,740 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 93,210 with a decrease of 1.61%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,835 with a decrease of 3.09% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 467,991, a decrease of 8,517 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,234, a decrease of 10,505. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,629, a decrease of 19,214, and the open interest was 293,000, an increase of 4,631 [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 287,852, a decrease of 18,528. The LME Copper inventory was 342,350, an increase of 6,925, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 13.34%, a decrease of 0.36% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 6.12 to -91, the bonded warehouse receipt premium increased by 1 to 48, and the bonded bill of lading premium increased by 1 to 47. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 100 to 86,650 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US may send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, and the Pentagon has formulated a detailed plan to deploy ground troops to Iran. China's 3 - month LPR remained unchanged for the tenth consecutive month, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia aims to more than triple its copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after a worker death accident. China's refined copper production from January to February was 2.473 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the February 2026 scrap copper import volume was 167,937.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.13% [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in the sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, impacting market performance and pricing [4][5] - The precious metals sector is expected to experience price fluctuations in the short term, with a long-term upward trend anticipated due to structural changes in monetary policy and increased central bank gold purchases [4][23] - Industrial metals are projected to see a price increase driven by stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term pressures from geopolitical tensions [4][35] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%. The non-ferrous metals index fell by 11.82%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 9.63 percentage points [4][5] - Precious metals saw a decline of 10.73%, aluminum dropped by 15.67%, and copper fell by 11.72% week-on-week [9] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals prices decreased significantly, with LME copper down by 6.69% and COMEX gold down by 10.57% [4][15] - Lithium prices also saw a decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 6.65% [19] Precious Metals - The report notes that the gold price is expected to rise in the long term due to low current gold reserves in China and ongoing central bank purchases [4][23] - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a high level, indicating potential for convergence as demand recovers [4][24] Industrial Metals - Copper demand is recovering quickly after price declines, with significant investments expected in the electric grid and AI sectors [4][35] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to drive prices higher [4][50] Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, Yunnan Tin, and China Aluminum [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Tiangong Co., Ltd. (天工股份) [1] Core Viewpoints - Tiangong Co., Ltd. is a specialized manufacturer of titanium and titanium alloy products, focusing on technological innovation to strengthen competitive barriers [15] - The company has established a comprehensive production system from sponge titanium to finished products, ensuring stable and efficient production [55] - The titanium industry is experiencing growth, with high-end applications in various sectors such as chemical, aerospace, and consumer electronics, indicating significant market potential [33][37] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Tiangong Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials, with products widely used in chemical and consumer electronics industries [15] - The company is recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise and a high-tech enterprise, emphasizing technological innovation [15][16] 2. Industry Growth - The titanium processing industry in China has shown resilience, with production increasing from 48,600 tons in 2015 to 159,100 tons in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 15.97% [34] - The demand for titanium in the chemical sector accounted for 51.23% in 2023, with significant growth potential in 3D printing and biomedical applications [37][39] 3. Product Innovation - The company has developed various titanium materials tailored for consumer electronics, achieving performance superior to domestic and international peers [49][51] - Innovations include advanced melting techniques and production processes that enhance product quality and production efficiency [51][52] 4. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Tiangong Co., Ltd. are expected to reach 631 million yuan in 2025, with net profits of 140 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][12] - The company has maintained stable gross and net profit margins, with a gross margin of 30.40% in 2024 [22][24] 5. Funding and Expansion - The company plans to invest 360 million yuan in a new production line for high-end titanium and titanium alloy rods and wires, supporting sustainable strategic development [3][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The manganese - silicon industry has low - level operation of the industry's start - up rate, both supply and demand increase, inventory is being destocked, and the supply - demand gap narrows. With cost support from manganese ore and geopolitical disturbances, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but high inventory limits the upside space [2]. - The silicon - iron industry has a slight increase in start - up, a significant recovery in demand, and continuous inventory destocking. With stable cost support and geopolitical disturbances, it is expected to follow the manganese - silicon to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,138.00元/吨，环比下降102.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,796.00元/吨，环比下降132.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为583,477.00手，环比下降3,332.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为387,576.00手，环比下降13,194.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 73,533.00手，环比增加6,746.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 29,215.00手，环比下降558.00手 [2]. - SM7 - 5月合约价差为38.00元/吨，环比增加8.00元；SF7 - 5月合约价差为124.00元/吨，环比增加12.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为55,928.00张，环比下降82.00张；SF仓单为8,627.00张，环比增加400.00张 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 188.00元/吨，环比增加152.00元；SF主力合约基差为 - 196.00元/吨，环比增加132.00元 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为6,020.00元/吨，环比上涨20.00元 [2]. - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,620.00元/吨，环比下降30.00元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,500.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比持平；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,600.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,905.00元/吨，环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非高铁锰矿天津港均价为33.95元/吨度，环比持平；南非半碳酸锰矿天津港均价为39.45元/吨度，环比持平 [2]. - 硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，环比持平；兰炭（中料神木）价格为730.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,110.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为470.70万吨，环比下降2.10万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为36.14%，环比增加0.44%；硅铁企业开工率为27.86%，环比增加1.31% [2]. - 锰硅供应为197,680.00吨，环比增加1,820.00吨；硅铁供应为97,400.00吨，环比增加900.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为375,800.00吨，环比下降11,500.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为61,170.00吨，环比下降5,110.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为18.57天，环比增加1.09天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为18.72天，环比增加1.20天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为116,660.00吨，环比增加5,491.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为18,864.40吨，环比增加1,055.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为78.34%，环比增加0.63%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为82.92%，环比下降2.40% [2]. - 粗钢产量为6,817.74万吨，环比下降169.36万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 河钢集团2026年3月硅锰最新价6150元/吨，首轮询价6100元/吨，1月硅锰定价5920元/吨；3月硅锰采量9500吨，1月采量17000吨 [2]. - 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特当地时间3月17日表示油轮“已经开始零星通过”霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普政府认为对伊朗军事行动将持续数周而非数月 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices fluctuated weakly mainly due to continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflicts stimulating market inflation expectations, driving up the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. Although there are frequent resource problems in mines and recycled copper, electrolytic copper production is not affected. Downstream demand in the copper products sector has slightly recovered, and inventory has decreased, but the pattern of loose supply and demand has not been reversed. Poor terminal performance and high - level inventory pressure still suppress the upward movement of copper prices. If the war continues and inflation expectations continue to rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, oil prices fall and the US dollar declines, copper prices may have a driving force for rebound [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation remains tense. If the war continues, inflation pressure will rise, the US dollar will strengthen, and copper prices will be further depressed. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, so the US dollar provides weak support for copper prices [3] - **Supply**: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Due to tight overseas copper resources and difficult shipments affected by the war, copper resource shortages still support copper prices. The price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has declined. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [3] - **Demand**: After entering the peak seasons (March and April) for copper products, the start - up rate has begun to rise. In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.38 percentage points, 3.89 percentage points lower than the expected value, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58 percentage points. Terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the terminal's feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The highest price was 101,980 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 98,370 yuan/ton, the weekly increase or decrease was - 0.73%, and the range amplitude was 3.57% [5] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of March 16, the average spot premium in East China was 60 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 20 yuan/ton. The market had a strong willingness to support prices this week, and spot quotes were mainly at a premium. Next week, the volume of imported cleared goods may increase, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a discount [11] 4. LME Copper Spread Structure - As of March 13, LME copper rose 0.05% during the week, closing at $12,847/ton, with a spot premium of - $89/ton [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Glencore's copper refinery in Australia has gone on strike due to a salary dispute [21] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - As of March 13, the price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas fell to 1,473 yuan/ton. In 2025, China imported 2.3427 million physical tons of scrap copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% [25] 7. Smelter Fees - As of March 13, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $60.12/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 6.10 cents/pound. Some smelters plan to conduct regular maintenance from March to May. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of more than 10% in 2026, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30] 8. Refined Copper Supply - It is expected that the output in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. In February, Chile's copper exports to China increased from a low level, but its exports of copper ores to China decreased. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [35] 9. Apparent Demand - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00% [39] 10. Copper Product Industry - In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, and the start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26% [43] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts decreased by 312 hours compared with the same period of the previous year [47] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - In February 2026, the decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to February, national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [52] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. The export of new energy vehicles was 282,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.1 times [56] 14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges - As of March 13, LME copper inventory increased by 27,500 tons to 311,800 tons week - on - week, a 9.67% increase, and 31.46% higher year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 tons, a 1.05% decrease week - on - week and 538.09% higher year - on - year. As of March 12, the bonded - area inventories in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. As of March 13, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 315,100 tons, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; cathode copper inventory was 391,500 tons, a 1.96% increase week - on - week [61][66]