崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.03.04） 固定收益研究 信用债收益率下行，上海楼市新政将推动预期改善——信用债 3 月投资策略 展望 基金研究 小盘价值风格表现突出，多只宽基指数 ETF 呈现资金流出——公募基金 3 月 月报 公司研究 证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/03/04） PCB 微钻领先者，钨矿资源注入可期——中钨高新（000657）深度报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 要 晨会纪要（2026/03/04） 固定收益研究 信用债收益率下行，上海楼市新政将推动预期改善——信用债 3 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-6BP 至 1BP。受节假日因素影响，2 月信用债 发行规模环比下降，各品种发行金额均环比减少；信用 ...

沪铜月报 高铜价VS高库存，铜牛旺季成色几何 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2026-02-27 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 4 虽然全球铜高库存短期限制上方空间，但未来有效流通的铜库存预期偏紧，随着金三银四消 费旺季和国内两会临近，市场情绪积极，宏微有望共振，铜整体震荡偏强。但也需警惕宏观 情绪消退后，弱现实压制铜价，带来高位回落风险。 建议回调逢低试多，产业买保按需采购，回调加大补库力度，卖出套保等待反弹背靠上方压 力位。中长期看，铜矿紧张和绿色同需求爆发，叠加国家战略资源安全溢价和中美博弈加 剧，对铜中长期趋势依旧看好。 3月沪铜关注区间【98500，106500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【12500，13500】美元/吨 风险提示：铜矿减产，需求不足，中美关系 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】 两会临近叠加金三旺季开启，铜矿紧张背景下，高铜价VS高库存，宏微有待共振， 建议回调逢低试多，中长期对铜依旧看好 【策略展望】 工作计划安排 WORK SCH ...

ST京蓝，18天狂揽14个涨停，一个戴ST帽子的公司，凭啥能逆袭封神？ 这家公司原本的主业是土壤修复、高标准农田建设等业务。但最近，它要改名——铟靶新材，从传统行 业跳到了高端新材料。 "铟"到底是什么？它是制造手机屏幕、AI光模块、光伏电池的核心原料，国内储量紧缺，属于实打实的 战略稀有金属。 更关键的是，ST京蓝还计划要往下游做高端ITO靶材。 这ITO靶材又是啥？可以简单理解成"电子工业的味精"，没有它，那些高科技屏幕就亮不起来。 那问题来了，一个深陷亏损的ST公司，哪来的底气搞这种尖端技术？ 因为背后有人撑腰。 这一切的变化，都得从一个新名字说起。 2023年公司破产重整后，新实控人承诺要把自己的"鑫联科技"——一个真正的稀散金属回收龙头装进上 市公司。 但这场狂欢，其实和公司眼下的真实业绩毫无关系。换句话说，市场炒的是"未来的饼"，而不是"现在 的饭"。 而这家鑫联科技做的就是含铟废渣的回收提炼，能稳定供应生产ITO靶材所需的核心原料。 2月26日晚间，公司主动发布公告提示风险，表示股价短期内涨幅严重脱离基本面，2025年预计亏损超2 亿，并随即申请停牌核查。 换句话说，一旦鑫联科技成功注入，ST京 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Policy Changes - Shanghai has implemented a new notification to optimize and adjust the city's real estate policies, effective from February 26, which includes reducing housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents and allowing them to buy additional properties in certain areas [1][5] - The notification also optimizes housing provident fund policies [1] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Sainuo Medical reported a total revenue of 525 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.53%, and a net profit of 47.29 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 3057.05% [5][6] - Haiguang Information achieved a revenue of 14.376 billion yuan in 2025, up 56.91%, with a net profit of 2.542 billion yuan, increasing by 31.66% [5] - Nanya New Materials reported a net profit of 241 million yuan for 2025, a growth of 378.65% [6] - Aibo Medical plans to acquire 68.31% of Demai Medical for 683 million yuan, aiming to enhance its position in the health sector [6][7] Group 3: Market Developments - The Hong Kong government has announced plans to revise listing requirements for companies with dual-class shares and to facilitate the listing process for biotech firms [2][3] - The sales of home appliances and digital products during the recent Spring Festival reached 5.106 million units, a 21.7% increase compared to the previous year, with offline sales accounting for 73.3% of total sales [4] Group 4: Corporate Actions - Wens Foodstuff Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24 yuan per share [8] - ST Xinhua Jin has received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding an investigation for information disclosure violations, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [9] - Gree Electric Appliances' largest shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% through block trading to repay bank loans, without affecting control of the company [10] Group 5: Industry Insights - A report from CITIC Securities indicates that the demand for AI data centers (AIDC) is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 55% from 2025 to 2028, leading to significant opportunities in the power supply sector [10]

| 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | ５日涨幅* | | --- | --- | --- | | 基本金属 | 钢铁 | 海运 | | +4.84% | +3.95% | +3.479 | | 精细化工 | 房地产 | 化肥农』 | | +2.96% | +2.61% | +2.509 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 4147.23 | 14475.87 | 1547.2 | | +29.82 +0.72% +184.30 +1.29% +11.77 +0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1473.28 | 3354.82 | 6899.9 | | +7.92 +0.54% +46.55 +1.41% +71.41 +1 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4735.89 | 8527.56 | 5967.3 | | +28.34 +0.60% +134.65 +1.60% +56.57 +0 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 | | 8426.33 | 3573. ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 据外媒报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜价格周四微跌，前一交易日上涨超2%。美元汇率攀升至逾 一周高位，库存增加以及需求低迷，共同给这一基础金属的价格带来压力。 LME基准三个月期铜下跌0.2%，至每吨12879.50美元，此前周三曾上涨2.3%。由于上海期货交易所因 农历新年假期休市至2月23日，市场交易清淡。 "在中国市场休市的情况下，（铜价）基本没什么变动，等待流动性回归，这并不令人意外，" Tastylive 全球宏观主管伊利亚·斯皮瓦克表示，他补充说美元走强也给价格带来了轻微压力。在美联储会议纪要 显示政策制定者似乎并不急于降息，且多位官员对如果通胀持续顽固则可能加息持开放态度后，美元守 住了涨幅。美元走强使得以美元计价的大宗商品对于其他货币持有者而言更加昂贵。 LME注册仓库的铜库存周二增加了3，025吨，达到224，650吨，为2025年3月以来的最高水平。 责任编辑：吴俊阳 据外媒报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜价格周四微跌，前一交易日上涨超2%。美元汇率攀升至逾 一周高位，库存增加以及需求低迷，共同给这一基础金属的价格带来压 ...

该公司预计2026年镍产量将在19.3万吨至20.3万吨之间，与2025年基本持平。钯产量预计在241.5万至 246.5万盎司之间，同比下降幅度最高达11%。 为弥补停产缺口，Nornickel计划将部分铜厂转产镍锭——Leonov称这是"非常规解决方案"。公司正筹备 生产线转换，目标今年启动工业化试点。 Nornickel在2024年曾宣布计划关闭Arctic铜厂，并将铜生产转移至中国，目标在2027年中期完成。 2月13日（周五），俄罗斯金属生产商Nornickel副总裁表示，该公司计划今年在其铜厂启动镍冶炼试 验，以在2027年计划进行的大型熔炉改造期间维持产量。 这一创新举措将使该公司能够在检修期间保持镍产量。该公司诺里尔斯克分部负责人Alexander Leonov 称，作为全球最大钯生产商和镍主要供应商，Nornickel计划于2027年对诺里尔斯克的Nadezhda Metallurgical熔炼炉进行大修。他称此次停产将持续约270天，导致工厂产能暂时削减近半。 Nornickel主要股东兼首席执行官 Vladimir Potanin此前表示，近期产量下滑属暂时现象，原因包括矿石 储备枯竭、 ...

Group 1 - Aihua Long faces regulatory scrutiny after being warned about its involvement in the brain-machine interface sector, leading to a formal investigation and losses in both its main business and stock trading activities [1] - Rongbai Technology's order value plummeted from 120 billion to a fine of 9.5 million due to false disclosures, with Chairman Bai Houshan fined 3 million [1] - BYD aims to sell 1.3 million vehicles overseas by 2026, contributing to China's export of over 7 million vehicles, marking a third consecutive year of global leadership in this sector [1] Group 2 - Haichang Intelligent has accounts receivable of 450 million, accounting for 56% of its revenue, and is involved in a patent lawsuit that may result in a compensation of 10.83 million [1] - Zhiji Motors has set a target of selling 81,000 vehicles by 2025 but has failed to meet its targets for three consecutive years, with CEO Liu Tao apologizing for safety concerns related to Tesla [1] - China Shenhua's restructuring plan, involving the acquisition of 12 companies, was approved in just six days, with a total value of 133.6 billion [1] Group 3 - Changchun High-tech anticipates a loss of 1 billion in the fourth quarter due to product price adjustments, while investing over 2 billion annually in R&D to reduce reliance on growth hormones [1] - Vanke's losses are expected to deepen, projecting a loss of 82 billion by 2025, with a bond extension of 6.8 billion and additional support of 2.36 billion from Shentie [1] - GAC Group has issued a rare profit warning, expecting losses between 8 billion to 9 billion, with CEO Feng Xingya reiterating the focus on three major battles for a turnaround [1] Group 4 - Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank was fined 3.8 million, with its net interest margin dropping to 1.15% after eight years of unsuccessful A-share market attempts [1] - Yuanji Food is closing one out of every three new stores, with Yuan Lianghong's wife holding shares in six supplier companies involved in related transactions worth 130 million [1] - "Cheese Queen" Chai Xiu has exited the market after costly marketing efforts, leading to a 70% drop in the stock price of Miaokelan Duo, with Mengniu taking full control [1] Group 5 - Zijin Mining has invested an additional 28 billion in overseas acquisitions, projecting a profit of 51 billion by 2025, with its market value stabilizing above 1 trillion [1] - Hunan Gold's restructuring of 2.7 billion in assets aims to increase resource reserves, benefiting from rising prices of antimony and tungsten, resulting in record profits exceeding 1.27 billion [1] - A shareholder named Yu Han was penalized over 1 billion for manipulating stock prices, while Doctor's Optical spent 50 million on traffic acquisition but only 3 million on R&D [1] Group 6 - SAIC-GM-Wuling's debt ratio has risen to 85.24%, despite a 20.5% increase in sales, which remains 53.5 thousand units below its peak [1]

经济观察网 西方铜金（WRN.AM）股票在2026年2月12日出现下跌，尽管存在机构评级利好，但股价表 现主要受以下因素影响： 股票近期走势 截至2月12日收盘，西方铜金股价报3.06美元，单日下跌6.42%。当日振幅为4.22%，最高价3.19美元， 最低价3.05美元，成交额约278.37万美元。此次下跌使其近20个交易日累计跌幅达10.53%。 公司基本面：公司市盈率为-226.67倍，反映盈利能力尚未改善，市场可能对短期业绩与铜价波动更为 敏感。 机构观点 评级利好：斯迪富于2月12日维持"买入"评级，并将目标价从4.33美元上调至5.54美元，分析师认为公司 长期受益于铜供需缺口。 短期压力：然而，平安证券2月11日报告指出，铜价短期受情绪影响震荡，需警惕AI基建用铜需求不及 预期等风险。机构观点与市场短期情绪形成分化，导致股价与评级出现背离。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股价异动原因 铜价回调与市场情绪谨慎：近期LME铜价从高位回落，叠加春节前交投清淡，加剧了工业金属板块的 波动。尽管摩根大通等机构认为铜价长期逻辑未变，但短期技术性修正仍对股价形成压力。 板块与大盘走弱：同日工业金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto announced on February 5, 2026, its withdrawal from the merger talks with Glencore due to valuation disagreements, leading to the collapse of a potential deal that could have created the world's largest mining company [1] Stock Performance - Following the breakdown of the merger talks, Rio Tinto's stock experienced significant volatility, dropping 5.56% to $91.12 on February 5, 2026, but rebounding in subsequent days with a total increase of 9.92% from February 5 to February 12, 2026 [2] - The stock closed at $100.16 on February 12, 2026, reflecting a recovery trend, while the overall industrial metals and mining sector showed signs of improvement during the same period [2] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan resumed coverage of Rio Tinto on February 6, 2026, with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 7500 pence (approximately $94), highlighting the company's cash flow advantages in iron ore and its strategic expansion into copper and other materials [3] - The firm emphasized that the focus has returned to Rio Tinto's fundamentals following the failed merger talks, with a strategic blueprint released in December 2025 outlining a focus on iron ore, copper, and aluminum [3]