1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 241.125 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.674 billion yuan, up 2.25% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 12.464 billion yuan, an increase of 4.10% year-on-year [2][4] - The production of major products has increased, and the gross margin of the primary aluminum business has improved. The company is also planning to acquire a majority stake in a Brazilian aluminum company [4][7] Financial Summary - The company achieved a metallurgical-grade alumina production of 17.35 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%. The production of primary aluminum (including alloys) reached 8.08 million tons, up 6.18% year-on-year. The average price of domestic alumina decreased by 20.66% year-on-year, while the average price of domestic aluminum ingots increased by 3.71% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for the alumina business decreased by 8.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the primary aluminum business increased by 8.57 percentage points year-on-year due to a decrease in raw material costs and an increase in selling prices [6] - The company forecasts net profits of 20.273 billion yuan for 2026, 21.489 billion yuan for 2027, and 22.704 billion yuan for 2028, with corresponding EPS of 1.18, 1.25, and 1.32 yuan per share [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a focus on shareholder returns, achieving a revenue of 162.35 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, and a net profit of 22.64 billion RMB, up 1.18% year-on-year [4][9] - The increase in aluminum prices contributed to the performance, while alumina prices decreased despite an increase in alumina volume [5] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, proposing a dividend of 1.65 HKD per share for 2025, totaling approximately 16.5 billion HKD, which accounts for over 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company generated revenue of 162.35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 4% expected in 2026 [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 25.79 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [9] - The company’s aluminum alloy product revenue reached 106.10 billion RMB in 2025, with a 3.6% increase year-on-year, while alumina revenue was 38.83 billion RMB, up 4.0% year-on-year [6] - The average selling price of aluminum alloy products was 18,200 RMB per ton, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, while the average price of alumina was 2,899 RMB per ton, down 15.2% year-on-year [6] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 5.58 billion HKD, buying back 306 million shares, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth [7] - The proposed dividend for 2025 is an increase from 1.61 HKD per share in 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 is 25.79 billion RMB, 27.69 billion RMB, and 29.24 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.97, 11.15, and 10.56 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.818 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [9] - The company expects significant profit growth in Q1 2026, with a projected net profit of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.9% [9] - The report highlights the gradual release of new production capacity and the improvement in profitability of electrolytic aluminum [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2028 are as follows: 29.5 billion yuan (2025), 36.6 billion yuan (2026), 37.8 billion yuan (2027), and 38.4 billion yuan (2028) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 4.818 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.468 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 8.1%, 92.6%, 8.1%, and 4.3% respectively [2] - Earnings per share are expected to increase from 1.04 yuan in 2025 to 2.26 yuan in 2028 [2] Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 1.186 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while alumina production rose by 10.4% to 2.515 million tons [9] - The average price of aluminum in 2025 was 20,721 yuan per ton, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a projected price of 24,024 yuan per ton in Q1 2026 [9] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 6.7% to 12,700 yuan per ton, primarily due to lower energy costs [9] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing a new electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 200,000 tons, expected to be fully operational by the first half of 2026 [9] - Tianshan Aluminum is expanding its strategic layout in Indonesia with a planned investment of 1.556 billion USD for a 2 million ton alumina production line [9] - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, enhancing its resource supply [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.818 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [9] - The company expects to release additional production capacity, with a projected net profit of 9.280 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant growth of 92.6% [2][9] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a production capacity of 1.186 million tons in 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026 are estimated at 36.589 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.0% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 10.034 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 8.1% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.04 yuan in 2025 to 2.00 yuan in 2026 [2] Production and Pricing Insights - The average aluminum price in 2025 was 20,721 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [9] - The company plans to release 200,000 tons of new electrolytic aluminum capacity, with full production expected by the first half of 2026 [9] - The report notes a significant improvement in profitability due to lower energy costs, with a decrease of approximately 23% in self-generated electricity costs [9] Dividend Policy - For the fiscal year 2025, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total cash dividend of 2.52 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 52.4% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent trend of non - ferrous metals shows a recovery from a low level, but with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices, non - ferrous metals have also adjusted moderately. There is still long - term demand growth and supply constraints in the non - ferrous metals market. The core concern of investors has shifted from short - term inflation panic caused by soaring energy prices to deep concerns about long - term economic stagnation or recession. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals may be phased. The main focus of the market in the future will be the assessment and changes of the duration of the geopolitical conflict and the Strait blockade. The change in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation also has an impact on the market [13]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market logics and trends. For example, copper is expected to recover in the medium - to - long term due to factors such as inflation expectations and the entry of downstream consumption into the peak season; zinc is in a state of shock consolidation; the aluminum industry chain has different trends for different products such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy; tin is in a state of shock and is recommended to be observed or take a long - biased approach; lead is in a state of shock and can be considered to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens; nickel and stainless steel are in a state of adjustment, and can be considered to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [3][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: Non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery from a low level, but have adjusted moderately with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices. The market's focus has shifted from short - term inflation panic to concerns about long - term economic stagnation. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals is phased. The main concerns in the future are the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [13]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis**: - **Copper**: Powell's dovish statement reduces the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike this year, and the rise in gold and silver prices boosts copper prices. However, concerns about the US economic stagflation limit the rebound space of copper. In the medium - to - long term, rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, and copper prices are expected to rise. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight globally, but domestic smelters' production is not significantly restricted. Downstream demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is expected to enter the destocking cycle in April. It is recommended to go long at low prices and use options strategies [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The import ore TC continues to decline, and the domestic ore TC remains flat. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the downstream starts to show differentiation. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, inflation expectations, and demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is disturbed, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metal market. It is recommended to buy on dips. Different products in the aluminum industry chain, such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, have different price ranges and strategies [6][7][17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin market is in a weak shock under the pressure of the US dollar. It is recommended to observe or take a long - biased approach, pay attention to the capital sentiment, the situation of the ore end, and the macro - environment. Options can be used for protection [8][18]. - **Lead**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and energy prices fall. The supply of primary and secondary lead increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory shows a slight decrease. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens and pay attention to the demand recovery and inventory changes [9][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The implementation of Indonesia's nickel windfall tax and export tax is delayed. The supply of nickel ore is strong, and the demand is weak. Stainless steel is in a state of adjustment, and it is recommended to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [10][18][19]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [20]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The report shows the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and net short positions of each variety, as well as the influencing factors [23]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][25]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report presents various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [26][28][31][36][40][42][44][48]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, the basis, and the spread of different varieties such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [50][52][54][59][61][63][64]. Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report presents various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][70][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bullish [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The issue in the Middle East is tending to ease, but the reduction of electrolytic aluminium production in the Middle East has actually occurred, and there is still a possibility of further production cuts. Overseas consumption has not been substantially affected, and domestic aluminium rod and alloy inventories are declining, laying the foundation for future aluminium ingot destocking. The long - term outlook for fundamentals and macro - expectations remains optimistic [6]. - The export limit policy of bauxite in Guinea is yet to be clearly introduced. Although it is not clear whether it will cause a supply shortage, the policy - oriented price limit strengthens the support for alumina prices. The alumina supply - demand situation remains in surplus, and the price fluctuates with crude oil prices in the short term and will shift upward in the long term due to raw material disturbances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminium is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminium is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminium is 24,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminium spot premium/discount changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,585 yuan/ton, closed at 24,875 yuan/ton, with a change of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,580 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 357,773 lots, and the holding volume was 258,839 lots [2]. Aluminium Inventory - As of March 31, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 1.373 million tons, with a change of 24,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 416,607 tons, with a change of 4,155 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 416,775 tons, with a change of - 1,900 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 31, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,805 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,810 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,810 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 315 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,931 yuan/ton, closed at 2,827 yuan/ton, with a change of - 102 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 3.48%. The highest price reached 2,941 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 399,634 lots, and the holding volume was 199,275 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On March 31, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminium was 18,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,927 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 273 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: Risk sentiment rebounds, and prices rise [2][7] - Zinc: Shows a relatively strong performance [2][10] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Oscillates with a slight upward trend [2][17] - Aluminum: Supply pressure persists [2][21] - Alumina: The oversupply situation remains unchanged [2][21] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: The situation reverses, and prices rebound [2][24] - Palladium: Rebounds upward [2][25] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is pushed up by the ore end [2][29] - Stainless steel: The steel price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2][30] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot have increased to varying degrees, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. ETF holdings have decreased, and inventory changes vary. Price spreads also show different trends [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell said the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position," and the White House and Iran have different stances on the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai copper futures decreased during the day but increased at night, and the price of LME copper increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation. China's refined copper production increased, and Peru's copper production also increased. Codelco expects production costs to rise [7][9]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai zinc futures decreased slightly, while the price of LME zinc increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [10]. - **News**: Trump's "exit roadmap" emerged, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared, increasing the expectation of interest rate hikes [11]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai lead futures increased slightly, and the price of LME lead also increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and overseas inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [14]. - **News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai tin futures increased, and the price of LME tin also increased. Trading volumes and positions decreased, and inventory changed. Price spreads also showed different trends [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Iranian president expressed the willingness to end the war, Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB president questioned the US Treasury Secretary's view on the impact of the Iran war, and the decoupling of US Treasury bonds and oil prices became a key signal [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC's production in March hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, and there were various news about the Iran situation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are various news about nickel production and sanctions in Indonesia [30][31][34]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The inventory of refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - iron stainless steel showed different trends [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of aluminum continues, the over - supply pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - During the second month of the Iran conflict, when oil prices exceeded $100, the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, and the "decoupling" of bonds and oil became a key signal. The market logic shifted from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,875, up 150 from T - 1; the closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M was 3,436, down 9 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different changes compared with previous periods [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,827, down 114 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695, up 1,110 compared with a certain previous period. The trading volume and open interest changed as well [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 139.70 million tons, with no change from T - 1. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 8,125.15, up 82.40 from T - 1. There were also changes in import and export profits and losses [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,782, with no change from T - 1. The prices of alumina in different regions and the profit and loss of alumina enterprises also had corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from different countries and regions showed different changes compared with previous periods [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 24,200, with no change from T - 1. The difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 also changed [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The total inventory of caustic soda in three places was 31,016, down 499 from T - 1 [1] Comprehensive News - ECB President Lagarde questioned US Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimistic judgment on the short - term impact of the Iran war at the G7 meeting. She believed that the impact of this shock would last for a long time [3] - During the second month of the Iran conflict, when oil prices exceeded $100, the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, and the "decoupling" of bonds and oil became a key signal. The market logic shifted from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].