铝产业周报 2026/03/02 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

铝策略月报 2026 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：累库施压，预期博弈 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计3月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至8624.8万吨，产量737.8万吨，环比增长11.5%，同比下滑2.3%。山东延续降负荷，山西、 | | | 河南、广西及贵州厂家检修结束后逐步复产；预计3月国内电解铝运行产能提升至4430万吨，产量387.5万吨，环比增长12.9%，同比增长4.3%，铝 | | | 水比回落至64.4%。Mt.Holly铝厂5万吨闲置产能预计4月复产至Q2末满产；冰岛铝厂4月底复产至7月底满产。国内及印尼项目爬产，电解铝日产 | | | 延续高位提升。 | | | 2.需求：春节稀释开工表现，2月铝下游加工企业平均开工率55.9%，环比1月下调4.25%。其中铝板带开工率上调0.1%至65.3%，铝箔开工率上调 | | | 0.73%至71.63%，铝型材开工率下调14.8%至32.83% ...

交易咨询证号：Z0023618 联系方式：chenjingmin@zjtfqh.com 海外投产春节不"打烊" 铝铝铝 2026/02/27 作者：陈晶敏 从业资格证号：F03137989 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 周度变化及展望 预期表、供需平衡表详见后文。 ◼ 综上，我们对短期行情的观点：供给端的边际增量虽微增，但尚未构成主导行情的突出矛盾。在宏观情绪与基本面数据博弈 加剧的当下，市场仍需时间消化。我们维持对短期难有趋势性行情的判断。 ◼ 即便被寄予众望的英伟达在北京时间2月26日凌晨交出一份看似亮眼的财报，市场依然给予了负反馈。核心问题在于：当前市 场的定价重心不在"好不好"，而在于"是否远超预期"。由于有色各品种自身短期缺乏突出的单边矛盾，市场博弈的焦点 高度一致且集中，导致对任何焦点数据都极易过度交易预期。因此如果实际数据符合预期或略超预期，便会被市场解读为 "不达预期"，数据落地后自然难以给予市场足够上行的动力。 ◼ 基本面来看，春节期间，海外电解铝厂并未"打烊"，反而如火如荼开展投产，根据我们了解到的最新消息，海外电解铝厂 最新投产进度更 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and risks have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. For example, the gold price is affected by the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, and the copper price rises due to the fermentation of geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. - Different metals show different trends, including price increases, oscillations, and oscillations with an upward or downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2602 was 1.82%, and the daily increase of London gold spot was 1.88% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 25,303, and the open interest decreased by 1,496 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, which has a significant impact on the gold market [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex silver 2602 was 6.21%, and the daily increase of London silver spot was 6.30% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2602 increased by 31,572, and the open interest decreased by 2,359 [4]. - **Trend**: It is in an oscillatory pattern [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The price of the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.22%, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.28%. However, the night - trading price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.62% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 79,669, and the open interest increased by 19,913. The trading volume of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 7,286, and the open interest decreased by 497 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, and the supply of refined copper in December 2025 was in surplus [8]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.57%, while the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.74% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 10,174, and the open interest increased by 2,112. The trading volume of the London zinc increased by 434, and the open interest decreased by 3,669 [11]. - **News**: The central bank of China adjusted the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping prices [12]. - **Trend**: It is oscillating with a upward bias [2]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.27%, while the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.96% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 6,221, and the open interest decreased by 1,080. The trading volume of the London lead decreased by 706, and the open interest decreased by 1,561 [14]. - **News**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant escalation of the regional situation [15]. - **Trend**: The decrease in inventory supports the price, and the trend strength is neutral [2][14]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk rose significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai tin main contract was 8.53%, and the daily increase of the London tin 3M electronic disk was 6.74% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 227,884, and the open interest increased by 42,991. The trading volume of the London tin increased by 650, and the open interest decreased by 231 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on the tin market [20]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased by 76 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts also showed different changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The situation in Iran and the adjustment of the US PPI have an impact on the market [23]. - **Trend**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a certain upward trend, while alumina is neutral [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The prices of platinum futures and spot markets generally rose, while the prices of palladium showed different trends. For example, the increase of platinum futures 2606 was 5.81%, and the increase of palladium futures 2606 was 8.09% [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed differently [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical events have an impact on the market [27]. - **Trend**: Both platinum and palladium have a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 520, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 60 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 130,488, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 29,790 [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events in the nickel industry, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia and the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala [29][30]. - **Trend**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a neutral trend [35].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-02 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊战争开启，霍尔木兹海峡封闭，大宗商品遭殃 观点分享： 2 月 28 日美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发制人"军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊 遇袭身亡，伊方誓言"毁灭性报复打击"，霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。作为全球能源的咽喉，这 条水道的关闭意味着每天数千万桶的石油和大量的天然气无法运出，将直接冲击全球能源供 应、通胀预期和物流格局。原油将是受冲击最直接、最剧烈的品种。霍尔木兹海峡承担着全 球约五分之一的石油运输量，日均运输量高达 1800 万至 2000 万桶，市场交易的主线将从 基本面转向地缘政治风险溢价，油价波动率将急剧上升。对于天然气市场，全球约 20%至 25% 的液化天然气贸易需经过霍尔木兹海峡，全球最大液化天然气出口国之一的卡塔尔是核 心供应方一旦卡塔尔的出口受阻，全球液化天然气供应将瞬间紧张，有专家警告，欧洲天然 气交易价格可能会重演历史。原油成本上移将直接推高石脑油、烯烃、芳烃等基础化工原料 价格，进而导致聚乙烯、聚丙烯、乙二醇等下游产品 ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 铝：关注海外断供情况 氧化铝：关注交易情绪 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23835 | -10 | 225 | -540 | 2370 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23730 | - | l | । | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3142 | 0 | 44 | -55 | 276 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 318251 | 51456 | 136943 | -507302 | 106571 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 258690 | 6522 | 98952 | -112291 | 2529 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交 ...

铝产业链周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-3-2 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 国产铝土矿价格较节前平稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格较节前持稳于60.5美元/干吨。几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳 于61.5美元/干吨。氧化铝运行产能环比节前减少20万吨至9350万吨，全国氧化铝库存环比节前增加4.9万吨至528.4万吨。河北某 氧化铝大厂二期因政策影响焙烧端处于全部停运状态，同时溶出环节较春节假期前运行水平继续降低。电解铝运行产能环比节前增 加2.4万吨至4470万吨。随着铝价走强，未来电解铝供应预期有所改善。新投产能方面，扎铝35万吨已进入试生产阶段，天山铝业 二阶段8万吨仍在建设中，预计年内全面达产，此外广西隆林正加快盘活5.71万吨闲置产能，市场传辽宁某电解铝企业可能复产。 海外方面，华通安哥拉实业有限公司一期12万吨电解铝项目投产中，完全达产或在二季度；印尼北加电解铝项目首批50万吨投产 中。斯洛伐克 ...

1. 农产品数据 表 1：期货市场统计 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 主力成交量 | 变化 | 主力持仓量 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | c2605 | 2360 | 18 | 525106 | -22795 | 1475478 | 58465 | | 豆粕 | m2605 | 2833 | -1 | 720186 | -108533 | 2027937 | 6902 | | 菜粕 | rm2605 | 2287 | -9 | 329069 | -83774 | 908742 | 4222 | | 棕榈油 | p2605 | 8780 | 66 | 379616 | -31517 | 393602 | -3369 | | 豆油 | y2605 | 8226 | 28 | 242046 | -1688 | 666610 | 7442 | | 菜油 | oi2605 | 9185 | 0 | 145907 | 2752 | 257944 | 6138 | | 花生 | pk2605 | 7890 ...

研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-7元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利19元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利51元/吨，内蒙二级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利49元/吨。评：春节 后煤矿复产速度将加快，但供应高度仍受政策约束，下游消化 库存为主，焦煤基本面虽有压力但整体矛盾暂不突出，现货预 计弱稳运行，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 【短评-燃料油】2026年2月份国内炼厂燃料油商品量为 51.34万吨，环比下跌16.59万吨，跌幅24.42%；2月底，山东油 浆市场库存率6.9%，较上月末跌1.3%。山东地区渣油库存率 0.2%，较上月末跌0.8%，山东地区蜡油库存率0.3%，较上月末 跌2.1%。评：供应面看，部分检修地方炼厂3月将逐步复产，但 北方低硫渣油/沥青料外放主力炼厂即将进入检修，涨跌互抵后 燃料油商品量保持下滑趋势，利好燃料油挺价上推。周末期 间，伊朗与美国、以色列之间的地缘冲突已经正式升级，双方 已经开始了数轮的导弹互射，同时伊朗开始着手准备封锁霍尔 木兹海峡。伊朗作为全球高硫燃料油主要供应 ...