CONTENTS 目录 基本面维持弱势， 期价仍难反转 氧化铝周报 2025/11/29 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 | 氧化铝基本面评 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 估 | 基差 （元/吨） | 进口盈亏 （元/吨） | 冶炼利润 （元/吨） | 矿端 | 供给端 | 需求端 | 库存 | | 数据 | 148 | 26 | 10 | 铝土矿10月产量： 477万吨 铝土矿10月进口量： 1377万吨 | 周度产量： 185.8万吨 | 电解铝10月运 行产能： 4456万吨 | SHFE：26.09万 吨 社库：494.2万 吨 | | 多空评分 | +1 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +1 | - ...

（来源：果业研究） 来源：果业研究 期货做时间长了，其实就那么点东西，除了个别品种产业即时信息复杂以外，宏观、政策、技术都没啥 学的。新手存在一个巨大的误区，就是想交流，想找稳定盈利的圣杯，或者得到一个消息，让自己大赚 一笔。就差只想给银行卡，让别人给打钱了。贪婪之心，让人一步一步落入陷阱。 期货市场是什么，是朋友，是知己，不应该把市场当成敌人，别想着征服市场，搞斗争哲学那一套短期 或许有甜头，但是一直跟市场斗智斗勇，最后结果不一定会很好，即便是赢了，也非常惊险，非常惨 烈。 东方不亮西方亮，不用过分纠结，越是杠，方法不对，努力白费，赚个啥钱啊！天天想赚钱，现实是天 天亏钱，那就没意思了，与其折磨自己，不如放过自己。期货这个行业有瘾，究其原因，一是有赌的成 分，运气占一定因素，二是来钱快，有快感，尤其是轻松啥也不干就能大赚，甚至一夜暴富，赚过快 钱，谁还愿意去赚慢钱，赚辛苦钱。所以，一入期货深似海，越是恨，就越是不甘，就越欲罢不能。 今年能赚大钱的品种不多，黄金、白银、碳酸锂、多晶硅、焦煤，如果做到这几个品种，而且做对了， 可能能大赚一点，沪铜、沪锡、棕榈油、氧化铝、玻璃纯碱、鸡蛋、生猪、苹果、橡胶如果节奏踩 ...

氧化铝&电解铝12月报 过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡； 铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主 2025年11月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，海外多个矿山复产，后续铝土矿发运量或将进一步提升。9月几内亚港 低位震荡 | | | 口出货量回升，我国铝土矿港口库存较高，氧化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端， | | | 国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需求处于高位。本周国内氧化铝行业 | | | 库存延续累库态势，铝土矿库存高企，内外矿价格均承压，成本支撑或边际走弱。 | | 氧化铝 | 综合来看，几内亚铝土矿供应回升，我国铝土矿供应总量充足，氧化铝供应过剩 | | | 格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面处于供需双强格局。氧化铝过剩 | | | 格局难以反转，成本支撑或走弱，后续减产规模存不确定性，预计12月氧化铝仍 | | | 将维持低位震荡。 | | | 外矿整体发运量环比下行，但外矿价格整体维稳，氧化 ...

铝月报（2025年11月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-28 目录 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 即使英伟达业绩表现和展望均亮眼，但市场仍然对当前的估值是否有泡沫存疑。前期鹰派官员发言开始有所转向，从 不应该进一步降息到"至少有理由犹豫不决"，美国通胀表现温和就业风险上升，12月份降息预期增加，宽货币周期 给有色金属带来向上驱动。 给有色金属带来向上驱动。 铝土矿国内维持供应紧张格局，但国外随着几内亚预计结束，预计铝土矿供应维持宽松格局。10月日均产量小幅回落， 因北方部分企业例行检修及受国产矿紧张制约，且南方地区冶炼负荷也有下滑。国内氧化铝建成产能持稳，近几个月 没有新增产能落地，关注环保限产后续复产情况 关注环保限产后续复产情况 环保限产后续复产情况，当前氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡 氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡 氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡。 电解铝是属于高耗能行业，受我国供给侧改革--4500万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is gradually becoming sufficient. The supply of the alumina industry remains high, but smelters may cut production passively due to profit issues, leading to a gradual reduction in domestic alumina supply. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable with some minor declines. Overall, the alumina market may see a slight decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to take short - term long positions in the alumina main contract at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is abundant, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good. However, winter environmental protection restrictions and seasonal demand decline may lead to a slight decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum production. The downstream is entering the consumption off - season, but the demand still shows some resilience due to year - end rush in the photovoltaic and automotive industries. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market may see a slight decline in both supply and demand, and industrial inventory may accumulate. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which restricts production capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic cast aluminum supply. The industry is in a seasonal downturn, but the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry provides some support for demand. Overall, the cast aluminum market may see a decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.27%, closing at 21,610 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated at a low level with a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 2,707 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.00%, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton [4][6]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Price Movements**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.41%) from November 21. The closing price of LME aluminum on November 27, 2025, was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars/ton (0.89%) from November 21. The alumina futures price was 2,658 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (1.77%) from November 21. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (1%) from November 21. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,430 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.33%) from November 21, with a spot discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9][13][29]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.58, down 0.26 from November 21. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from November 21. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,820 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from November 21 [10][19]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 596,294 lots, down 15,917 lots (2.6%) from November 21. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 6,558 lots from November 21 [14]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, down 3,025 tons (0.56%) from November 20. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on November 21 was 123,716 tons, up 8,817 tons (7.67%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on November 27 was 543,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (4.06%) from November 20. As of November 28, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,935 tons, down 2,348 tons (3.39%) from November 21. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts on November 27 totaled 485,575 tons, up 775 tons (0.16%) from November 20 [32]. - **Raw Material Imports and Inventory**: The import volume of bauxite in October 2025 was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. The inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 26.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and debris was 158,360.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%, and the export volume was 32.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Alumina Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to October, the cumulative alumina production was 76.344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In October, the alumina import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%, and the export volume was 180,000 tons [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 24,600 tons. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 206,000 tons. In 2025 from January to August, the global aluminum market had a supply deficit of 105,400 tons. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 37.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum product production was 55.243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In October, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly installed capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The recycled aluminum alloy production was 608,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.83% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons. In October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%, and the export volume was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from the previous month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.81%, and the production volume was 3.359 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [64][67]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 免责声明 | 1.63% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 66.70% | 5478 | 5390 | 88 | 2.56% | 144 | 5770 | 52.20% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐 (SM601) | 5626 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.75% | 147 | 3240 | 62.00% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3093 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -3 | -0.09% | 热卷(HC2601) | 3290 | 3293 | 17.00% | | | | | | 7.56% | 铁矿石 (12601) | 60 | 折算价:6 ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-28 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色金属小组 王梓铧 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 铜 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘担忧有所回温，离岸人民币小幅贬值，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 0.21%至 10930 美 元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 87050 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 675 至 157175 吨，注销仓单比例抬升， Cash/3 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 28 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：低位反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 国家发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序 竞争问题仍然突出，一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩序的 行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理企业价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩 序，助力高质量发展。（华尔街见闻） | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21500 | 45 | -30 | રેકેટ | 850 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21480 | - | - | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-28 周度社会库存去库较为明显 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-160元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21380元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-115元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-27日沪铝主力合约开于21600元/吨，收于21500元/吨，较上一交易日变化55元/吨，最 高价达21610元/吨，最低价达到21485元/吨。全天交易日成交150551手，全天交易日持仓257138手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-27，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化-1.7万吨，仓单库存66909 吨，较上一交易日变化-76吨，LME铝库存541050吨，较上一交易日变化-675吨。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-27保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17000元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/ ...