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招商证券:首予鸣鸣很忙“强烈推荐”评级 量贩零食渠道效率大幅领先
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 03:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage on Mingming Hen Mang (01768) with a "strong buy" rating, highlighting the company's leading position in the snack retail sector and projecting continued industry growth, with expected adjusted net profits of 2.52 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leader in the domestic snack retail market, operating two major brands: "Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," with the former founded in 2017 and rebranded as Mingming Hen Mang Group in 2023 [2] - The ownership structure is stable, with the two founders holding approximately 36% and 29% of shares, while other investors hold smaller stakes [2] - As of November 30, 2025, the company has 21,041 stores, with a GMV of 66.1 billion (+73%) and revenue of 46.4 billion (+75%) for the first three quarters of 2025, alongside an adjusted net profit of 1.81 billion (+241%) [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The leisure food and beverage industry is valued at approximately 4 trillion, with the broader snack category around 1.8 trillion; traditional retail channels are declining while efficient snack retail channels are gaining market share [3] - The snack retail market is projected to reach 129.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024; the company has significant growth potential with an estimated long-term opening space of 80,000 to 100,000 stores [3] - Currently, Mingming Hen Mang holds about 43% market share, while its closest competitor, Wancheng, has around 32%, indicating a strengthening competitive landscape [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company excels in supply chain management with a diverse product range, precise selection, rapid SKU iteration, and strict quality control, partnering with quality suppliers for direct supply and customization [4] - The company leads in store expansion and opening speed, supported by a professional site selection, operation, and training team that enhances franchisee performance [4] - Operationally, the company demonstrates strong capabilities in refined management, with strict implementation of standards and high-quality store operations, alongside significant investment in brand building across online and offline channels [4]