Core Viewpoint - The heating industry is significantly influenced by policy changes, with market-oriented pricing reforms expected to be key to improving profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The heating industry in China has seen a steady increase in centralized heating area from 2010 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.8%, where residential area accounts for 76% [1] - Coal-fired heating accounts for over 70% of the heating methods, primarily using hot water as the heating medium, which is suitable for urban residents and public buildings, making up nearly 85% [1] - The historical context of heating price reform in China spans over two decades, with a significant policy document issued in April 2025 aimed at deepening urban heating price reforms and accelerating heating metering modifications [1] Group 2: Profitability Factors - There is a significant disparity in profitability among residential heating companies, influenced by both pricing and cost control [2] - In terms of pricing, Beijing has the highest unit heating price in the country, benefiting companies like Jinfang Energy and Jingneng Thermal Power, while some cities have not adjusted heating prices for over a decade, putting pressure on profitability due to rising fuel costs [2] - Fuel costs constitute approximately 60% of total heating costs, making fuel cost control crucial for profitability; for instance, Lianmei Holdings achieved a gross margin of 24% by utilizing low-value lignite and optimizing coal transportation and storage [2] Group 3: Cash Flow Analysis - The business model of residential heating companies typically involves pre-collection of heating fees, leading to strong free cash flow; four out of five selected heating companies have contract liabilities accounting for about 40% of total revenue, indicating positive free cash flow and net profit cash content exceeding 100% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heating industry, consistent with previous assessments [2]. Core Insights - The heating industry is undergoing continuous reform, with a focus on market-oriented pricing and improved cost control, leading to enhanced profitability for well-managed companies [3][4]. - The report highlights significant disparities in profitability among residential heating companies, influenced by pricing policies and cost management strategies [3][4]. - The cash flow situation for heating companies is generally strong due to pre-collection of heating fees, which contributes to positive free cash flow [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Residential Heating: A Typical Public Utility Industry - The area of centralized heating in China has steadily increased, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% from 2010 to 2023, where residential heating accounts for 76% of the total area [3][4]. - Coal remains the dominant source of heating, constituting over 70% of the supply, primarily through coal-fired combined heat and power (CHP) systems [3][4]. - The government has been actively reforming heating pricing mechanisms, with recent policies aimed at enhancing market-driven pricing and accelerating metering reforms [3][4]. 2. Profitability Disparities Among Residential Heating Companies - Profitability varies significantly among heating companies, with factors such as pricing and cost control playing crucial roles [3][4]. - The report notes that fuel costs account for approximately 60% of total heating costs, making effective fuel cost management essential for profitability [3][4]. - Companies like Lianmei Holdings have demonstrated strong cost control, achieving a gross margin of 24% in 2024, while others like Huitian Thermal Power have faced losses [3][4]. 3. Related Investment Targets - Lianmei Holdings is highlighted for its high level of management efficiency and consistent gross margins above 20%, with a significant portion of its assets in cash [3][4]. - Jingneng Thermal Power benefits from its backing by the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a gross margin between 15% and 20% [3][4]. - Jin Fang Energy, operating in Beijing, maintains stable profitability in its core heating business, while Hatou Holdings is expected to improve profitability alongside pricing reforms [3][4].