Core Viewpoint - Analysts generally expect the stock market to continue its upward trend next year, but unforeseen events and risks could disrupt this outlook. Morgan Stanley identified three potential unexpected factors that could impact the market in 2026, predicting a 13% increase in the S&P 500 index due to strong corporate earnings and a "rolling recovery" in the U.S. economy [1]. Group 1: Jobless Productivity Boom - The U.S. economy may experience a "jobless productivity boom," which could suppress inflation and open the door for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A weak job market could help contain wage growth and inflation, while accelerated productivity gains would support stable economic growth, potentially driving core inflation below 2% [1][2]. Group 2: Stock-Bond Paradigm Shift - The typical inverse relationship between stock and bond prices may reverse again. In 2025, both markets rose steadily, driven by a "bad news is good news" dynamic, where weak economic data fueled optimism for Fed rate cuts. However, if inflation falls to the Fed's target, this dynamic could shift back, making bonds a safe haven and a hedge against inflation [3]. Group 3: Surge in Commodity and Energy Prices - Commodity prices, including precious metals, saw significant increases in 2025 and may continue this trend in 2026. Factors such as ongoing Fed rate cuts, rising demand from China, and a weaker dollar could lead to a "blowout" in commodity prices. Predictions indicate that energy prices and overall commodity performance will improve due to supply constraints and increased demand driven by AI-related transactions [4][5][6].