Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant surge, with the main contract reaching 3405 yuan/ton, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, while the spot market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and expectations of increased supply in the future [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [3]. - The aluminum oxide futures market saw a notable increase of 8.39%, leading the futures market, amid expectations of the elimination of outdated production capacity [4]. - Despite the strong performance in the futures market, the supply-demand balance for aluminum oxide is not particularly tight, and the market remains profitable [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - There are rumors of accelerated elimination of outdated production facilities, with a reported 45% of aluminum oxide facilities being over 10 years old, although the accuracy of this statistic is questioned [5]. - The market is expected to return to a supply-demand balance as downstream industries are currently not accepting high spot prices, leading to a significant discrepancy between spot and futures prices [7]. - Future supply increases are anticipated, with new production capacities expected to come online in 2025, including 1.26 million tons from domestic sources and an additional 3.5 million tons from overseas [7]. Group 3: Trading Behavior - The low holding ratio of aluminum oxide contracts is a significant factor in trading participation, with a reported holding ratio of only 0.09% [6]. - The price elasticity of aluminum oxide is high due to its low trading volume compared to other commodities, which influences market dynamics [6].