今日上期所氧化铝期货冲高回落，主力2605合约日间交易收跌1.58%，国内氧化铝现货价格持稳。 宏观方面，市场风险偏好降温，空头势力卷土重来，全球股市大面积下跌。人民币走弱与油价下行形成 共振，对氧化铝期货价格形成压制，致其震荡走弱。 长江有色网1月8日讯，今日氧化铝高位下挫，主力月2605合约早盘冲高受阻，午后震荡下行；截止当日 15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2863元，收跌46元，跌幅1.58%；32个合约累计成交1540172 手，比前一交易日减少602829手，跌幅28.13%；持仓量798,398手增加62,111手，涨幅8.44%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格持稳；据长江有色网ccmn数据，1月8日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2730-2780元之 间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2640-2680元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西南 地区氧化铝每吨2765-2805元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2915-2955元之间， 与前一交易日报价持平。 基本面方面，供应端出现小幅减产，氧化铝供应阶段性缩减。不过，因市场提前对 1 月氧化铝减产形成 预期，期货价格率先反弹， ...

长江有色网1月7日讯，今日氧化铝偏强探涨一个半月高位，主力月2605合约高开上扬；截止当日15：00 收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2938元，收涨139元，涨幅4.97%；18个合约累计成交2143001手，比前 一交易日增加1321598手，涨幅160.90%；持仓量736,287手增加65,426手，涨幅9.75%。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货偏强上行，主力2605合约日间交易收涨4.97%，国内氧化铝现货价格局部有跌。 宏观方面，有色板块多头氛围依旧浓厚。电解铝价格持续大幅上扬，吸引资金进一步做多有色商品。同 时，宏观预期整体偏乐观，地缘风险带来的溢价效应，叠加中国宽松货币政策与补贴政策的协同发力， 市场消费情绪显著提振，为氧化铝期货价格反弹注入一定动力。 基本面方面，供应端出现小幅减产情况。贵州一家氧化铝企业的焙烧炉进行检修，导致氧化铝供应出现 阶段性缩减。周一公布的数据显示，中国氧化铝建成产能达11480万吨，开工产能为9445万吨，开工率 为82.27%。消费端方面，内蒙古的电解铝企业虽已投 ...

短期来看，氧化铝供需过剩格局难以扭转，社会库存持续累积，按现金成本核算仍有利润，且铝土矿价 格回落可能进一步降低成本。在未出现大规模减产之前，氧化铝价格上行空间受限，现货价格预计仍将 下跌。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 今日上期所氧化铝期货强势拉升，主力2605合约日间交易收涨5.601%，国内氧化铝现货价格多数下 跌。 宏观层面，国内金属市场氛围向好，有色金属整体上扬。人民币强势升值，同时央行持续推进稳健货币 政策，为金属市场注入了消费信心。在此背景下，氧化铝期货市场多头信心有所修复，推动期价震荡上 行。 基本面方面，成本端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐消退，且中国 11 月铝土矿进口量环比、同比分别增长 9.8% 和 22.3%，铝土矿价格存在下降空间。供应端，氧化铝开工产能维持高位，供应过剩局面短期内难以改 变，行业库存持续增加，这在一定程度上限制了氧化铝价格的上行空间。需求端，新疆地区电解铝发运 情况改善，在途库存增多，铝锭社会库存累积，使得当地对氧化铝现货的采购意愿降低；南方地区供应 稳定，仅有个别铝厂低价采购。此外，近期电解铝厂招标价格持续走低，氧化铝基本面利空因素 ...

短期来看，氧化铝价格预计将继续偏弱运行。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货震荡下沿，主力2601合约日间交易收跌1.03%，国内氧化铝现货价格下跌。 宏观层面，海外降息预期重燃，美元指数走低，全球股市与油价齐涨，市场风险偏好提升。不过，氧化 铝期货市场反应平淡，近期价格主要受基本面偏空因素左右。 基本面方面，原料端，北方矿山虽逐步复产，但供矿稳定性差，国产矿库存低位；而进口矿稳定到港， 削弱了成本端价格支撑。供应端，国内部分氧化铝炼厂检修减产致周度产量微降，但运行产能整体仍处 高位。同时，进口窗口开启，需求增量有限，氧化铝供应压力较大。国内氧化铝总库存持续增加，各类 库存数据均偏高，仓单水平也不低，盘面面临较大实货交割压力。需求端，西北电解铝厂前期集中补 库，卸货压力增大，高库存下对氧化铝现货采购意愿骤降；南方地区供应稳定，仅个别铝厂逢低价采 购。现货市场，氧化铝价格持续下跌，市场接货需求不足、畏跌情绪浓，成交总量虽有提升，但仍难消 化供应，进一步加剧库存累积。 长江有色网12月22日讯，今日氧化铝走势延续弱势， ...

长江有色网12月17日讯，今日氧化铝震荡上扬，主力月2601合约高开高走，价格重心重回2.5千元上 方；截止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2601合约报2558元，涨24元，涨幅0.95%；12个合约累计成交 372,105手，比前一交易日减少488,798手，跌幅30.16%；持仓量603,146手减少3,011手，跌幅0.50%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格跌势为主；据长江有色网ccmn数据，12月17日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2810- 2860元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2730-2770元之间，与前一交易日报价跌 10元；西南地区氧化铝每吨2820-2860元之间，与前一交易日报价跌5元；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2950- 2990元之间，与前一交易日报价持平。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美国11月非农就业增长超预期，不过失业率升至4.6%，这使市场对美国明年进一步降息的 预期升温，同时对美元和美债收益率形成压制。国内方面，12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议备 受关注。会议将扩大内需列为 ...

12月5日，氧化铝期货延续下行趋势，主力合约价格跌破2600关口，已连续五个月下跌，创下上市以来新低。 据调研了解，新疆地区招标采购1万吨氧化铝现货，中标价格为3005元/吨(到厂价)，北方地区货源。同时，该 集团旗下云南电解铝厂招标采购0.5万吨，中标价格为2835元/吨(出厂价)，百色地区货源。 12月4日当周，氧化铝港口库存录得14.1万吨，较上一周减少1.5万吨，减少幅度达9.62%；最近一个月，氧化铝 港口库存累计减少3.6万吨，减少幅度为20.34%。 国投安信期货指出，氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升，供应过剩格局难改。本 周现货招标成交继续下调，现货指数延续下跌。当前晋豫现金成本尚有利润，形成规模减产前氧化铝弱势运行 继续探底。 | 今开: 2615.0 | 昨结:2620.0 | 最高: 2618.0 | 最低:2569.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 均价:2589.1 | 今结: -- | 涨停: 2803.0 | 跌停:2436.0 | | 昨收:2615.0 | 日増仓: 4880.0 | 成交量: 174787.0 | 持命: ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,570.00 | +105.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,740.00 | -40.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -55.00 | +5.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -64.00 | -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 347,833.00 | -8714.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 426,124.00 | +21114.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 25,850.0 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alumina market is currently in a multi - empty game situation of "increasing supply, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". Supply increases both domestically and internationally, and inventory accumulates, which is the core factor suppressing prices. However, the support near the cost line is gradually emerging, reducing the risk of excessive price decline. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillatory trend within a range [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Spot Market - Basis Data The basis of the active alumina ao2601 contract has weakened recently. The spot price of alumina in Shandong is 2880 yuan/ton, the futures contract has dropped 19 yuan/ton from the previous closing price, and the basis on that day is 24 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1 Industry Information On October 10, the domestic spot market showed a stable trend. The price of domestic active powder alumina in Henan was 5750 yuan/ton and remained unchanged since October 3. The futures market was relatively weak, and the linkage between spot and futures prices weakened due to light short - term spot trading and traders' wait - and - see attitude. The weighted full cost of alumina in the Jin and Yu regions is about 3025 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, limiting the downward space of spot prices, but there is no momentum for spot price rebound under the oversupply situation [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The main alumina contract shows a clear oscillatory and bearish trend. On the daily line level, the contract price has been running below the 5 - day moving average since falling from the previous high. On October 10, it rebounded to 2913 yuan/ton and then fell back, confirming the suppression of the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the price decline accompanied by increased volume indicates that short - selling power is still being released [8]. 4. Market Outlook The alumina market is in a situation of "supply increase, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". The supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress prices, while the cost line provides support. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly within a range [10].

Market Overview - As of October 8, 2025, overseas alumina was traded at $324.5 per ton FOB Indonesia for a shipment of 30,000 tons scheduled for late November [1] - Domestic alumina inventory reached 4.328 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] - Cumulative overseas alumina production for the first nine months of 2025 was 46.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.06% [1] - September production reached 5.24 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.66% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.62% [1] Institutional Insights - Rongda Futures noted that alumina inventory continues to accumulate, with both spot and futures prices declining, maintaining an oversupply situation [2] - The price trend is expected to remain bearish, with a short-term fluctuation range projected between 2850 and 3200 [2] Industry Analysis - Zhongcai Futures reported a general decline in spot alumina prices, with average industry profits narrowing and high operational capacity [3] - The opening of import windows has exacerbated the supply surplus, while the demand side for electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable [3] - The increase in social inventory of alumina continues, with warehouse receipts rising by over 2,700 tons on the day [3] - The fundamental outlook is weak, with high-cost regions facing losses, and attention is drawn to the impact of continued price declines on production capacity in these areas [3]