消息面 据了解，2025年10月8日海外市场氧化铝以印尼FOB324.5美元/吨的价格成交3万吨，11月下旬船期。 融达期货： 目前氧化铝持续累库，期现价格双双下跌，基本面维持过剩格局，海外氧化铝市场成交活跃价格下跌， 价格震荡偏空，短期波动区间2850-3200。 中财期货： 当日氧化铝现货价格普跌，行业平均利润收窄，运行产能高位，进口窗口打开，供应过剩有所加剧；需 求端电解铝运行产能相对平稳；本周氧化铝社库继续上升，当日仓单增逾2700吨；基本面较差，高成本 区域产能亏损，关注价格继续下行对于该区域产能的影响，若无实质性产能下降或政策落地，盘面或仍 偏弱震荡。 据10月9日统计，国内氧化铝库存共计432.8万吨，较前一周增加11.6万吨。 据调研，2025年前九个月海外氧化铝累计产量4650万吨，同比增长3.06%。最新9月产量攀达524万吨， 同比增长6.66%，环比减少2.62%。 机构观点 ...

Market Overview - As of the week ending August 22, 2025, the main contract for alumina futures closed at 3138 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 9466 contracts [1] - During the week of August 18-22, alumina futures opened at 3212 CNY/ton, peaked at 3237 CNY/ton, and dropped to a low of 3081 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.15% [1] Price and Supply Dynamics - The national average price for spot alumina was 3263 CNY/ton, remaining stable with a premium of 149 CNY/ton [2] - The FOB price for Australian alumina was 370 USD/ton, down by 1 USD/ton, indicating a closed theoretical import window [2] - As of August 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 75953 tons of alumina warehouse receipts, an increase of 903 tons from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the fundamental support for alumina is weakening, but events in Shanxi, strong foreign mineral prices, and relatively resilient spot alumina prices may limit further declines in the short term [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts, indicating a gradual emergence of oversupply [3] - The spot index for alumina is experiencing a downward trend, with a support level around 3000 CNY [3]

转自：新华财经 从整个商品市场来看，氧化铝供需矛盾并不突出，而且市场尚有盈利，但为何涨幅最大的是氧化铝？ 一德期货研报指出，近日市场传言部分行业老旧装置将加速淘汰，一份流传的统计表显示，氧化铝超10年装置占比高达45%，期货盘面表现来看，资金 是"按十大重点行业+老旧装置占比高+利润低"的特点筛选的。但是"45%的占比"这一统计结果准确性存疑，氧化铝厂可能会出现技术升级改造，但落后产 能或大幅低于此数值。 在陆俊杰看来，此前在"反内卷"预期下，钢铁、光伏等行业的上游品种已经持续上涨，而氧化铝涨幅显著落后于其他品种。在对政策的预期下，市场对氧 化铝行业的认知偏差导致其被错误类比于其他大涨的品种，进而造成快速拉涨。 氧化铝极低的持仓比也是资金参与交易的重要因素。据上海期货交易所数据，18日氧化铝仓单减少1.86万吨至0.69万吨，持仓比仅为0.09%。 新华财经北京7月21日电（记者 王小璐）21日，受宏观情绪提振，氧化铝期货主力合约盘中冲高至3405元／吨，一度触及涨停。 与期货市场的火热形成鲜明对比的是，现货市场尤为冷静。"如果说现在每吨卖到3200元，一些库存比较高的下游可能都不会去买。"上海钢联氧化铝资深 ...

金十期货热图 今日氧化铝期货盘中一度触及涨停！什么原因？后市能否继续看多？一图了解。 上述表态导致市场预期氧化铝行业将进行新一轮供给侧改革, 期货价格随之大涨。不过,行业虽然产能过剩,但不存在大量 落后产能,实际投产运行超过20年的装置较少,该消息的影响 更多集中在情绪层面。 E 中辉期货 将运行超20年的装置定义为"老旧装置",可能淘汰部分高成本 产能。事实上,因停工成本高,亏损企业更倾向"亏损卖现货" 而非停工，上述表态的直接影响有限，或影响400万~500万吨 产能,占比较少。 2氧化铝将在7月下旬开始检修? 有部分企业称,将在7月下旬开始检修。同时,当前西南部分电解 铝产能置换项目即将投产,区域内氧化铝需求有所抬升,现货供应 或收紧。不过,整体来看,氧化铝供应仍然过剩,近期全国库存持 续回升。 → 国信期货 尽管市场预期中长期供应过剩,但近期我国部分氧化铝企业进 入检修期,产量预计下降。现货市场上,氧化铝现货供应偏 紧,贸易商挺价心态较强。 3氧化铝期货会逼仓吗? 新商期货 上期所仓单库存在低位大幅去化,仓单库存降至历史极低值, 低仓单高持仓引发市场挤仓情绪。但当前卖交割窗口打开,后 续仓单库存仍存增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum (unilateral): Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina (unilateral): Neutral [4] - Aluminum (arbitrage): Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The price of aluminum is strongly affected by cost factors and shows a strong performance. The downstream acceptance of aluminum is poor, and the consumer sustainability may change in June. For alumina, the top of the spot price may have appeared, and the price is still under great pressure in the long - term due to the expectation of supply surplus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On June 4, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,130 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 19,900 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 160,576 lots, a decrease of 22,947 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 189,969 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [1] - Inventory: As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons. As of June 4, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On June 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - Alumina futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,995 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 2.17% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 610,813 lots, an increase of 187,670 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 299,898 lots, a decrease of 11,326 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Frequent coal mine accidents in Shanxi have a wide - ranging impact on the cost side, and the aluminum price has risen. The downstream acceptance is poor, and the spot premium has declined. There are no negative factors on the supply side at home and abroad. The consumer sustainability may change in June. The industry profit is rich, and it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upward without unexpected positive stimuli [3] - Alumina: The trading rhythm of the spot market has slowed down, and the top of the spot price may have appeared. The supply is increasing, and the social inventory reduction has slowed down. The current futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and the price is still under pressure in the long - term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum oxide futures showing a notable increase while black building materials continue to decline. The recent three consecutive days of gains in aluminum oxide futures have drawn significant attention, reflecting market concerns over production cuts and future ore supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the May Day holiday, many aluminum oxide-related enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to production disruptions. For instance, a 1 million ton capacity line in Shanxi has halted due to ore supply issues, and another 800,000 ton capacity line in Guangxi will be under maintenance for 15 days [2]. - The aluminum oxide futures market is transitioning to the 2509 contract, with traders focusing on the anticipated production cuts during the rainy season in Guinea [2]. - Despite the rise in futures prices, domestic aluminum oxide spot prices have remained relatively stable, with an average price of 2895.86 yuan/ton as of May 8, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The aluminum oxide industry has seen its production capacity increase from 82.45 million tons at the beginning of the year to over 90 million tons, outpacing demand growth and contributing to price declines [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum oxide has increased from 3.7 million tons at the start of the year to 4 million tons by late April, but has recently decreased to 3.946 million tons due to production cuts [5]. - The dependency on imported bauxite is high, with approximately 75% of China's bauxite sourced from abroad, primarily Guinea [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The price of aluminum oxide is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a significant surplus expected in the market due to rapid capacity expansion [9]. - The cash cost of aluminum oxide production is a critical indicator, with current costs around 2669 yuan/ton, which may serve as a short-term price support level [11]. - Future price movements are anticipated to face resistance around the 3000-3100 yuan mark, with potential downward pressure if bauxite prices continue to decline [12].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]