Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term alumina prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The supply - stable and rigid - demand pattern remains unchanged. The high premium of futures restricts the upward space, while energy price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and low inventory support the price, lacking a driving factor for a unilateral trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On March 11, 2026, the SHFE alumina futures main contract (AO.SHF) closed at 2869 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.77% from the previous trading day. The intraday opening price was 2839 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2879 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2823 yuan/ton, and the intraday fluctuation range was 1.98%, showing an oscillating upward trend with a bottom - touching rebound and a slowdown in the afternoon [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the average spot price index of alumina in China was 2687 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day. In the past week, the spot price has gradually increased from 2673 yuan/ton on March 5, with a cumulative increase of 14 yuan/ton or 0.52%. The price trend is relatively more stable than that of futures. Regionally, on March 11, the alumina prices in South China were 2700 - 2750 yuan/ton, in East China were 2660 - 2700 yuan/ton, in Southwest China were 2725 - 2765 yuan/ton, and in Northwest China were 2965 - 3005 yuan/ton. The price in Northwest China increased by 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, while the prices in other regions remained stable [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - **Supply side**: As of March 11, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 113.9 million tons, the operating production capacity was 89.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.58%, with overall stable supply. In terms of inventory, the domestic alumina inventory at the end of February 2026 was 385,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.32% from 380,000 tons at the end of January, at a low level in recent years [4] - **Demand side**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative output of downstream electrolytic aluminum reached 7,294,420 tons, showing year - on - year growth. The downstream factories' operation has returned to the pre - holiday level, maintaining rigid procurement. The further release space of demand is limited, and the downstream buyers are generally cautious [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term alumina prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The supply - stable and rigid - demand pattern remains unchanged. The high premium of futures restricts the upward space, while energy price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and low inventory support the price, lacking a driving factor for a unilateral trend [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in aluminum oxide futures, with the main contract for March 2605 dropping by 3.65% to 2744 yuan, reflecting a significant market shift [1] - The trading volume for aluminum oxide contracts increased by 23.37% to 616,871 lots, while open interest rose by 9.11% to 524,998 lots, indicating heightened market activity despite price declines [1] - Domestic spot prices for aluminum oxide showed mixed results, with some regions experiencing price stability while others saw slight increases or decreases, reflecting regional market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The fundamental analysis highlights that logistics disruptions during the Spring Festival led to significant inventory buildup in factories, but post-holiday logistics recovery has allowed for improved shipments and inventory reduction [2] - As of February 26, China's social inventory of aluminum oxide reached 5.685 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week, continuing to exert downward pressure on prices [2] - Despite some production cuts in aluminum oxide plants, the overall supply surplus remains, with total inventory continuing to accumulate, indicating persistent price pressures in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a collective decline in aluminum oxide contracts, with the main contract for February 2605 closing at 2820 yuan, down 32 yuan or 1.12% [1] - The trading volume for aluminum oxide contracts increased significantly, with a total of 500,033 contracts traded, up 189,651 contracts or 61.10% from the previous trading day [1] - The open interest rose to 481,179 contracts, an increase of 377,180 contracts or 8.51% [1] Group 2 - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices showed some increases, with prices in different regions reporting slight variations; for instance, prices in South China remained stable at 2680-2730 yuan per ton, while prices in East China increased by 10 yuan to 2620-2660 yuan per ton [1] - The overall sentiment in the macro market is positive, with global stock markets rising, although domestic indices showed mixed results; the weakening of the US dollar coincided with a depreciation of the yuan, contributing to a volatile trading atmosphere in the aluminum oxide market [1] - The fundamental outlook for aluminum oxide remains weak in the medium to long term, with no signs of a complete reversal; short-term price movements are expected to remain volatile, constrained by new production capacity and declining costs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing a bullish trend in futures contracts, with the main contract for February 2605 closing at 2870 yuan, up 22 yuan or 0.77% [1] - The total trading volume for eight contracts reached 310,382 lots, an increase of 28,438 lots or 10.09% compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest rose by 15,200 lots or 3.55% to 443,461 lots [1] - Domestic spot prices for aluminum oxide showed some increases, with prices in different regions remaining stable or slightly fluctuating, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of aluminum oxide enterprises has increased week-on-week, while the import window has closed, leading to a continuous accumulation of total inventory and ongoing oversupply pressure [2] - The cash cost in the Jin-Yu region is estimated to be between 2550 and 2680 yuan, with some companies experiencing light losses but no large-scale long-term production cuts expected [2] - The overall outlook for the aluminum oxide market remains weak in the medium to long term, with no signs of a complete reversal, and a bearish trend is anticipated [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a collective decline in alumina futures contracts, with the main contract for February 2605 closing at 2790 yuan, down 22 yuan or 0.78% [1] - The total trading volume for the day reached 476,903 lots, an increase of 25,240 lots or 5.59% compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased by 20,386 lots, a decline of 3.83% [1] - Domestic spot prices for alumina remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China between 2600-2640 yuan, Southwest between 2715-2755 yuan, and Northwest between 2870-2910 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, two alumina plants in Guangxi that were undergoing maintenance are scheduled to resume production on the 7th and 9th, respectively, with more companies expected to take holidays for maintenance as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - The inventory data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that alumina futures warehouse receipts reached 196,344 tons, an increase of 6,944 tons, while factory warehouse receipts remained at 0 tons, limiting the rebound potential of alumina futures prices [2] - Overall, the trading activity in the market is expected to remain low ahead of the Spring Festival, compounded by ongoing oversupply pressures and expectations of new production capacity coming online in March, which will likely keep alumina prices under pressure [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase in price while the trading volume has decreased significantly [1][2] - As of February 4, the main aluminum oxide contract closed at 2824 yuan, up by 14 yuan, reflecting a 0.50% increase, while the total trading volume decreased by 42.84% to 451,663 contracts [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China between 2600-2640 yuan, Southwest between 2715-2755 yuan, and Northwest between 2870-2910 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, previous production cuts have been in effect for a week, leading to a reduced rate of inventory accumulation, although warehouse stock increased by 7,199 tons to 189,000 tons, which may limit the rebound potential of aluminum oxide futures prices [2] - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has turned dull, with cautious buying from downstream sectors due to high prices, and some companies entering holiday mode, resulting in decreased replenishment demand [2] - It is anticipated that production cuts during the Spring Festival will provide some support for aluminum oxide prices, but post-holiday, new production capacity and cost pressures may lead to significant resistance against price rebounds, with expectations of low-level fluctuations prevailing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, high inventory levels, and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2751 yuan, down 35 yuan, a decrease of 1.26% [1]. - The total trading volume for the day was 874,460 contracts, an increase of 184,381 contracts or 26.72% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Open interest decreased by 20,054 contracts, a decline of 2.77%, totaling 703,197 contracts [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Guinea is steadily increasing, while Australian shipments have decreased due to the rainy season; however, overall imports to China are rising, putting pressure on import prices [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains high, with no large-scale reductions in output, contributing to ongoing supply pressure [2]. - Demand is weak due to the off-peak season, with aluminum smelters facing high raw material inventories and logistical challenges, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of January 15, China's aluminum oxide social inventory reached 5.393 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The accumulation of inventory is causing sellers to increase their willingness to sell, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases only [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on prices due to excess supply and rising inventories [2]. - Attention is required on potential production cuts expected from late January to February, which may influence market conditions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase in futures prices driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][1]. Group 2 - On January 12, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2866 yuan, up 46 yuan, reflecting a 1.63% increase [1]. - The total trading volume for 21 contracts was 956,375 lots, a decrease of 184,183 lots or 16.155% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The open interest increased by 7,436 lots to 784,807 lots, representing a 0.96% rise [1]. Group 3 - The domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: South China at 2730-2780 yuan per ton, East China at 2640-2680 yuan per ton, Southwest at 2760-2800 yuan per ton, and Northwest at 2905-2945 yuan per ton [1]. - The macroeconomic announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicates that the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, leading to a surge in exports and a temporary boost in related sectors [2]. Group 4 - The domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, with no significant signs of production cuts, while there are indications of resumption in bauxite mining in northern regions [2]. - The overall market sentiment is bullish due to previous anti-competitive news and expectations of significant production cuts in loss-making aluminum oxide companies in January [2]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the oversupply in the market continues to pose a challenge for price increases, with expectations of a rebound followed by a potential retreat to seek support [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that aluminum oxide prices are experiencing a decline, with the main contract closing at 2863 yuan, down 46 yuan or 1.58% [1] - The trading volume for aluminum oxide contracts decreased significantly by 602,829 contracts, a drop of 28.13%, while open interest increased by 62,111 contracts, up 8.44% [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2730-2780 yuan per ton, East China between 2640-2680 yuan, Southwest between 2765-2805 yuan, and Northwest between 2915-2955 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, there is a slight reduction in production, but expectations of a decrease in January production have already been priced in, leading to a divergence between futures and spot prices [2] - The latest warehouse data shows an increase in aluminum oxide inventory from 2089 tons to 155,000 tons, indicating weak demand [2] - Overall, despite expectations of production cuts due to losses, supply remains excessive, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing funds to exit the market, putting pressure on aluminum oxide futures prices [2]