新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货主力2605合约震荡大跌，日间交易收跌3.65%，国内氧化铝现货价格部分上涨。 宏观层面，海外风险偏好下降，美伊日内瓦启动谈判，市场资金谨慎，多空力量博弈，期市整体行情转 弱，氧化铝期货价格面临下行压力。 基本面方面，春节期间物流大面积停滞，氧化铝大量积压在工厂。节前部分氧化铝厂意外减产，刺激下 游铝厂及贸易商询价接货意愿增强。节后物流运力逐步恢复，氧化铝厂积极出货，厂内库存去化明显， 在途库存有所上升。不过，社会库存仍呈累库态势，截至2月26日，中国氧化铝社会库存达568.5万吨， 较前一周增加3.1万吨，持续对氧化铝价格走势形成压制。现货市场，交投氛围表现尚可。早间，终端 企业趁价格低位入场采购，市场交投热度温和上升；午后盘面持续走低，持货商选择持价观望，下游按 需谨慎采购，整体交易规模难以扩大。 综合来看，矿石价格持续走低，氧化铝成本支撑减弱。今年以来氧化铝供应端虽陆续出现减产，供应压 力有所缓解，但供应过剩格局未变，总库存持续累积，价格上方仍有压力。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 长江有色网2月27日讯 ...

长江有色网2月26日讯，今日氧化铝所有合约集体下挫，主力月2605合约高开转跌，午后跌势为继；截 止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2820元，跌32元，跌幅1.12%；加权合约累计成交500033 手，比前一交易日增加189651手，涨幅61.10%；持仓量481179手增加377180手，涨幅8.51%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格部分上涨；据长江有色网ccmn数据，2月26日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2680-2730 元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2620-2660元之间，与前一交易日报价涨10 元；西南地区氧化铝每吨2715-2755元之间，与前一交易日报价跌持平；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2935- 2975元之间，与前一交易日报价涨20元。 今日上期所氧化铝期货主力2605合约先扬后抑，日间交易收跌1.12%，国内氧化铝现货价格部分上涨。 宏观层面，内外市场情绪整体偏积极，全球股市大面积上扬，但国内主要股指涨跌互现。美元走低的同 时人民币亦同步趋弱，叠加氧化铝市场多空博弈氛围浓厚，致使期盘陷入回调，氧化铝期货价格自高位 转跌。 基本面方面，氧化铝企业周度运行产能环比提升，进口窗 ...

长江有色网2月25日讯，今日氧化铝所有合约全线走强，主力月2605合约低开震荡后反弹上行；截止当 日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2870元，涨22元，涨幅0.77%；8个合约累计成交310382手， 比前一交易日增加28438手，涨幅10.09%；持仓量443461手增加15200手，涨幅3.55%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格部分上涨；据长江有色网ccmn数据，2月25日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2680-2730 元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2610-2650元之间，与前一交易日报价持平； 西南地区氧化铝每吨2715-2755元之间，与前一交易日报价跌持平；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2915-2955元 之间，与前一交易日报价涨30元。 综合来看，在中长期我们仍然认为氧化铝基本面较弱，暂无彻底反转的迹象，中长期预计仍偏空。节后 供应端需关注某厂二期项目具体情况，可卖深虚看涨值期权参与，或等情绪消退后卖空。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货主力2605合约先抑后扬，日间交易收涨0.77%，国 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美元反弹，全球股市大面积下挫，市场风险情绪降温。加之铜、铝、锡、镍、锌等金属价格 联动大跌，空头力量增强，氧化铝期货价格也随之承压下行。 基本面方面，前期广西进行检修的两家氧化铝厂，计划分别于 7 日和 9 日复产，且临近春节，选择放假 检修的企业预计增多。上期所仓单库存数据显示，氧化铝期货仓库仓单达 196344 吨，增加 6944 吨；厂 库仓单为 0 吨，与前日持平。这一情况在一定程度上限制了氧化铝期货价格的反弹空间。现货市场，现 货价格企稳，持货商存在挺价意愿，但下游企业观望情绪浓厚。本周多数企业已进入假期，入场补货需 求愈发低迷，刚需采购意愿持续降低，拖累全天成交表现。 综合来看，春节前夕市场交投活跃度预计较低，叠加氧化铝供应过剩压力依旧存在，且市场对年后及 3 月份新增产能投产的预期压力较大，氧化铝价格上方承压明显，预计将维持低位震荡态势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 长江有色网2月5日讯，今日氧化铝所有合约集体下行，主力月2605合约低开低走，盘面走势疲弱；截止 当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase in price while the trading volume has decreased significantly [1][2] - As of February 4, the main aluminum oxide contract closed at 2824 yuan, up by 14 yuan, reflecting a 0.50% increase, while the total trading volume decreased by 42.84% to 451,663 contracts [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China between 2600-2640 yuan, Southwest between 2715-2755 yuan, and Northwest between 2870-2910 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, previous production cuts have been in effect for a week, leading to a reduced rate of inventory accumulation, although warehouse stock increased by 7,199 tons to 189,000 tons, which may limit the rebound potential of aluminum oxide futures prices [2] - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has turned dull, with cautious buying from downstream sectors due to high prices, and some companies entering holiday mode, resulting in decreased replenishment demand [2] - It is anticipated that production cuts during the Spring Festival will provide some support for aluminum oxide prices, but post-holiday, new production capacity and cost pressures may lead to significant resistance against price rebounds, with expectations of low-level fluctuations prevailing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, high inventory levels, and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2751 yuan, down 35 yuan, a decrease of 1.26% [1]. - The total trading volume for the day was 874,460 contracts, an increase of 184,381 contracts or 26.72% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Open interest decreased by 20,054 contracts, a decline of 2.77%, totaling 703,197 contracts [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Guinea is steadily increasing, while Australian shipments have decreased due to the rainy season; however, overall imports to China are rising, putting pressure on import prices [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains high, with no large-scale reductions in output, contributing to ongoing supply pressure [2]. - Demand is weak due to the off-peak season, with aluminum smelters facing high raw material inventories and logistical challenges, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of January 15, China's aluminum oxide social inventory reached 5.393 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The accumulation of inventory is causing sellers to increase their willingness to sell, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases only [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on prices due to excess supply and rising inventories [2]. - Attention is required on potential production cuts expected from late January to February, which may influence market conditions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase in futures prices driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][1]. Group 2 - On January 12, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2866 yuan, up 46 yuan, reflecting a 1.63% increase [1]. - The total trading volume for 21 contracts was 956,375 lots, a decrease of 184,183 lots or 16.155% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The open interest increased by 7,436 lots to 784,807 lots, representing a 0.96% rise [1]. Group 3 - The domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: South China at 2730-2780 yuan per ton, East China at 2640-2680 yuan per ton, Southwest at 2760-2800 yuan per ton, and Northwest at 2905-2945 yuan per ton [1]. - The macroeconomic announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicates that the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, leading to a surge in exports and a temporary boost in related sectors [2]. Group 4 - The domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, with no significant signs of production cuts, while there are indications of resumption in bauxite mining in northern regions [2]. - The overall market sentiment is bullish due to previous anti-competitive news and expectations of significant production cuts in loss-making aluminum oxide companies in January [2]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the oversupply in the market continues to pose a challenge for price increases, with expectations of a rebound followed by a potential retreat to seek support [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that aluminum oxide prices are experiencing a decline, with the main contract closing at 2863 yuan, down 46 yuan or 1.58% [1] - The trading volume for aluminum oxide contracts decreased significantly by 602,829 contracts, a drop of 28.13%, while open interest increased by 62,111 contracts, up 8.44% [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2730-2780 yuan per ton, East China between 2640-2680 yuan, Southwest between 2765-2805 yuan, and Northwest between 2915-2955 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, there is a slight reduction in production, but expectations of a decrease in January production have already been priced in, leading to a divergence between futures and spot prices [2] - The latest warehouse data shows an increase in aluminum oxide inventory from 2089 tons to 155,000 tons, indicating weak demand [2] - Overall, despite expectations of production cuts due to losses, supply remains excessive, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing funds to exit the market, putting pressure on aluminum oxide futures prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that alumina prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a one-and-a-half-month high, driven by a bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector and macroeconomic optimism [1][2] - As of January 7, the main alumina contract closed at 2938 yuan, up 139 yuan, reflecting a 4.97% increase, with a total trading volume of 2,143,001 contracts, an increase of 1,321,598 contracts or 160.90% from the previous trading day [1] - The domestic spot prices for alumina showed some localized declines, with prices in South China reported between 2730-2780 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight reduction in production due to maintenance at an alumina plant in Guizhou, leading to a temporary decrease in supply [2] - The operating capacity of alumina in China is reported at 9,445 million tons, with an operating rate of 82.27% [2] - Despite some regions experiencing price declines, the overall market activity remains robust, with increased trading volumes and a positive sentiment among buyers influenced by a bullish outlook [2]