周内开工继续抬升，氧化铝生产利润较好刺激厂家恢复生产，周度库存继续累增。 机构观点汇总： 光大期货：氧化铝基本面支撑减弱，但山西矿权事件、外矿价格坚挺以及氧化铝现货相对抗跌下，短期 限制深跌空间，空头继续压盘仍需更多逻辑支撑。临近金九旺季，资金情绪可能转为谨慎、压盘态势或 趋缓，氧化铝跌幅收敛。 国投安信期货：氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显 现，各地现货指数阴跌，氧化铝偏弱震荡，3000元位置具备支撑。 本周（8月18日-8月22日）市场上看，氧化铝期货周内开盘报3212元/吨，最高触及3237元/吨，最低下探 至3081元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.15%。 消息面回顾： 周四，现货氧化铝全国均价3263元/吨，持平，升水149元/吨。澳洲氧化铝F0B价格370美元/吨，跌1美 元/吨，理论进口窗口关闭。 8月21日，上期所氧化铝期货仓单75953吨，环比上个交易日增加903吨。 截至2025年8月22日当周，氧化铝期货主力合约收于3138元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持9466 手。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum (unilateral): Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina (unilateral): Neutral [4] - Aluminum (arbitrage): Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The price of aluminum is strongly affected by cost factors and shows a strong performance. The downstream acceptance of aluminum is poor, and the consumer sustainability may change in June. For alumina, the top of the spot price may have appeared, and the price is still under great pressure in the long - term due to the expectation of supply surplus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On June 4, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,130 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 19,900 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 160,576 lots, a decrease of 22,947 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 189,969 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [1] - Inventory: As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons. As of June 4, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On June 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - Alumina futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,995 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 2.17% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 610,813 lots, an increase of 187,670 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 299,898 lots, a decrease of 11,326 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Frequent coal mine accidents in Shanxi have a wide - ranging impact on the cost side, and the aluminum price has risen. The downstream acceptance is poor, and the spot premium has declined. There are no negative factors on the supply side at home and abroad. The consumer sustainability may change in June. The industry profit is rich, and it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upward without unexpected positive stimuli [3] - Alumina: The trading rhythm of the spot market has slowed down, and the top of the spot price may have appeared. The supply is increasing, and the social inventory reduction has slowed down. The current futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and the price is still under pressure in the long - term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum oxide futures showing a notable increase while black building materials continue to decline. The recent three consecutive days of gains in aluminum oxide futures have drawn significant attention, reflecting market concerns over production cuts and future ore supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the May Day holiday, many aluminum oxide-related enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to production disruptions. For instance, a 1 million ton capacity line in Shanxi has halted due to ore supply issues, and another 800,000 ton capacity line in Guangxi will be under maintenance for 15 days [2]. - The aluminum oxide futures market is transitioning to the 2509 contract, with traders focusing on the anticipated production cuts during the rainy season in Guinea [2]. - Despite the rise in futures prices, domestic aluminum oxide spot prices have remained relatively stable, with an average price of 2895.86 yuan/ton as of May 8, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The aluminum oxide industry has seen its production capacity increase from 82.45 million tons at the beginning of the year to over 90 million tons, outpacing demand growth and contributing to price declines [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum oxide has increased from 3.7 million tons at the start of the year to 4 million tons by late April, but has recently decreased to 3.946 million tons due to production cuts [5]. - The dependency on imported bauxite is high, with approximately 75% of China's bauxite sourced from abroad, primarily Guinea [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The price of aluminum oxide is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a significant surplus expected in the market due to rapid capacity expansion [9]. - The cash cost of aluminum oxide production is a critical indicator, with current costs around 2669 yuan/ton, which may serve as a short-term price support level [11]. - Future price movements are anticipated to face resistance around the 3000-3100 yuan mark, with potential downward pressure if bauxite prices continue to decline [12].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]