本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,570.00 | +105.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,740.00 | -40.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -55.00 | +5.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -64.00 | -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 347,833.00 | -8714.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 426,124.00 | +21114.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 25,850.0 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alumina market is currently in a multi - empty game situation of "increasing supply, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". Supply increases both domestically and internationally, and inventory accumulates, which is the core factor suppressing prices. However, the support near the cost line is gradually emerging, reducing the risk of excessive price decline. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillatory trend within a range [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Spot Market - Basis Data The basis of the active alumina ao2601 contract has weakened recently. The spot price of alumina in Shandong is 2880 yuan/ton, the futures contract has dropped 19 yuan/ton from the previous closing price, and the basis on that day is 24 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1 Industry Information On October 10, the domestic spot market showed a stable trend. The price of domestic active powder alumina in Henan was 5750 yuan/ton and remained unchanged since October 3. The futures market was relatively weak, and the linkage between spot and futures prices weakened due to light short - term spot trading and traders' wait - and - see attitude. The weighted full cost of alumina in the Jin and Yu regions is about 3025 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, limiting the downward space of spot prices, but there is no momentum for spot price rebound under the oversupply situation [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The main alumina contract shows a clear oscillatory and bearish trend. On the daily line level, the contract price has been running below the 5 - day moving average since falling from the previous high. On October 10, it rebounded to 2913 yuan/ton and then fell back, confirming the suppression of the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the price decline accompanied by increased volume indicates that short - selling power is still being released [8]. 4. Market Outlook The alumina market is in a situation of "supply increase, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". The supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress prices, while the cost line provides support. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly within a range [10].

Market Overview - As of October 8, 2025, overseas alumina was traded at $324.5 per ton FOB Indonesia for a shipment of 30,000 tons scheduled for late November [1] - Domestic alumina inventory reached 4.328 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] - Cumulative overseas alumina production for the first nine months of 2025 was 46.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.06% [1] - September production reached 5.24 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.66% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.62% [1] Institutional Insights - Rongda Futures noted that alumina inventory continues to accumulate, with both spot and futures prices declining, maintaining an oversupply situation [2] - The price trend is expected to remain bearish, with a short-term fluctuation range projected between 2850 and 3200 [2] Industry Analysis - Zhongcai Futures reported a general decline in spot alumina prices, with average industry profits narrowing and high operational capacity [3] - The opening of import windows has exacerbated the supply surplus, while the demand side for electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable [3] - The increase in social inventory of alumina continues, with warehouse receipts rising by over 2,700 tons on the day [3] - The fundamental outlook is weak, with high-cost regions facing losses, and attention is drawn to the impact of continued price declines on production capacity in these areas [3]

Market Overview - As of the week ending August 22, 2025, the main contract for alumina futures closed at 3138 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 9466 contracts [1] - During the week of August 18-22, alumina futures opened at 3212 CNY/ton, peaked at 3237 CNY/ton, and dropped to a low of 3081 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.15% [1] Price and Supply Dynamics - The national average price for spot alumina was 3263 CNY/ton, remaining stable with a premium of 149 CNY/ton [2] - The FOB price for Australian alumina was 370 USD/ton, down by 1 USD/ton, indicating a closed theoretical import window [2] - As of August 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 75953 tons of alumina warehouse receipts, an increase of 903 tons from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the fundamental support for alumina is weakening, but events in Shanxi, strong foreign mineral prices, and relatively resilient spot alumina prices may limit further declines in the short term [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts, indicating a gradual emergence of oversupply [3] - The spot index for alumina is experiencing a downward trend, with a support level around 3000 CNY [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant surge, with the main contract reaching 3405 yuan/ton, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, while the spot market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and expectations of increased supply in the future [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [3]. - The aluminum oxide futures market saw a notable increase of 8.39%, leading the futures market, amid expectations of the elimination of outdated production capacity [4]. - Despite the strong performance in the futures market, the supply-demand balance for aluminum oxide is not particularly tight, and the market remains profitable [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - There are rumors of accelerated elimination of outdated production facilities, with a reported 45% of aluminum oxide facilities being over 10 years old, although the accuracy of this statistic is questioned [5]. - The market is expected to return to a supply-demand balance as downstream industries are currently not accepting high spot prices, leading to a significant discrepancy between spot and futures prices [7]. - Future supply increases are anticipated, with new production capacities expected to come online in 2025, including 1.26 million tons from domestic sources and an additional 3.5 million tons from overseas [7]. Group 3: Trading Behavior - The low holding ratio of aluminum oxide contracts is a significant factor in trading participation, with a reported holding ratio of only 0.09% [6]. - The price elasticity of aluminum oxide is high due to its low trading volume compared to other commodities, which influences market dynamics [6].

Group 1 - The market anticipates a new round of supply-side reform in the alumina industry, leading to a significant rise in futures prices, although the actual impact is more emotional than substantial due to limited old production capacity [4] - The definition of "old facilities" includes those in operation for over 20 years, with potential elimination of some high-cost capacity, but the direct impact is limited, affecting only 4 to 5 million tons of capacity, which is a small proportion [5] - Some companies are expected to begin maintenance in late July, which may tighten the current spot supply of alumina, although overall supply remains excessive with national inventories continuing to rise [6][7] Group 2 - Despite expectations of long-term supply surplus, some alumina companies are entering maintenance periods, leading to a projected decrease in production, while spot market supply is tightening and traders are maintaining a strong price support stance [7] - The low inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have led to a significant reduction in warehouse receipts, creating a market squeeze sentiment, although the opening of the selling delivery window suggests an expectation of increased inventory in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]