事件：生态环境部强调要加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型 据生态环境部1月26日消息，生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责同志就《关于发布含汞电池等12 种添汞产品和使用含汞催化剂生产聚氨酯工艺管控要求的公告》答记者问时表示，我国将聚焦无汞催化 剂研发攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型。 水俣公约将增加电石法PVC企业的生产成本，加快行业落后产能退出 《关于汞的水俣公约》（以下简称《公约》）的目标是保护人类健康和环境免受人为排放和释放汞和汞 化合物的影响。自2001年2月环境署理事会第21届会议以来，汞问题一直列入环境署理事会议程，每隔 两年开会一次，电石法聚氯乙烯生产用汞工艺淘汰时限已成为近几次《公约》缔约方大会谈判的核心焦 点。在电石法生产PVC的过程中，乙炔与氯化氢的反应需以氯化汞作为催化剂。然而在催化反应过程 中，氯化汞易发生汞流失，不仅造成催化剂活性下降，还可能对环境和人体健康带来潜在危害。而《公 约》已经明确2032年将禁止全球原生汞矿的开采，届时将无法再利用氯化汞作为催化剂生产PVC。目前 有两种方式推动PVC无汞化：①采用金基催化剂。使用金基催化剂一方便需要改造生产产线，另一方面 需要 ...

来源：中国能源网 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 标的： 中邮证券近日发布石化行业周报：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌 3.52%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。原油跌； 美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求 ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：持续关注反内卷进展 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-12-17 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China petrochemical industry index showed a significant upward trend, with key stocks like Tongcheng New Materials rising over 6%, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, the China petrochemical industry index opened low but quickly rose, currently up approximately 0.85% [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's upward movement, highlighting the value in the sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guohai Securities suggests that the trend of "anti-involution" may lead to a revaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with future measures likely to significantly slow global chemical industry capacity expansion [1]. - The Chinese chemical industry is characterized by abundant net operating cash flow, which could lead to a substantial increase in potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows [1]. - Changes on the supply side are expected to halt the decline in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks likely to exhibit both high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Key areas of focus include petrochemicals, coal chemicals, organic silicon, phosphate chemicals, and glyphosate [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China petrochemical industry index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the index, positioning them to benefit from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated capacity [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic economic data is mixed with positive policy signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the short - term rebound of stock indices should be treated with caution; the Fed's rate cut is settled, but the threshold for further rate cuts next year is raised, so gold's short - term rise is still a rebound. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth, and the support mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation; with the fading of uncertainties in US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing of the Fed's future rate - cut space, gold may face a deep - adjustment risk [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In November this year, imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 0.9 and 7 percentage points respectively compared to last month. CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the decline in some industrial product prices [4] 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - With the marginal weakening of the "two new" policies and the early release of demand for durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances and mobile communications, the profit growth of related industries has slowed down. Downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction. The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 24888.31 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 6685 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 47 billion yuan [14][16] 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, announced to buy $40 billion of short - term Treasury bills per month, and the interest - rate dot plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut next year. The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly. The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of market bullish sentiment [21][22][36] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In November, imports rebounded slightly and export growth accelerated, mainly due to the low - base effect of the same period last year and the increased pre - Christmas stocking demand. CPI rebounded for two consecutive months, while the year - on - year decline of PPI expanded, mainly dragged down by the price decline of related industries such as building materials and chemical raw materials. In terms of corporate earnings, driven by policies, the prices of new energy and non - ferrous metals industries rebounded, which is conducive to the improvement of the profits of upstream raw materials processing industries. However, the marginal effect of policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is weakening, and the profit growth of related industries of durable goods has slowed down. The domestic policy side has released positive signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. The Fed's rate cut and related policies have led to a decline in the US dollar index and a short - term rebound of gold [37]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.35%, while stocks like Bluestar Technology, Hangyang Co., and Dongfang Shenghong are among the top gainers [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a significant decrease in industry capital expenditure growth starting from 2025, which, along with the "anti-involution" trend, is expected to facilitate supply-side coordination and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1] - Domestic demand is expected to recover further, supported by exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, leading to a gradual recovery in bulk chemical products [1] Group 2 - Long-term oil prices are expected to have cost bottom support, and high-dividend companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as those with incremental natural gas, present investment opportunities [1] - Domestic chemical products have cost advantages and competitive pricing, with domestic tire manufacturers likely to continue increasing their global market share due to these advantages [1] - High dividend assets are expected to see an increase in willingness and ability to distribute dividends, with phosphate resources likely to maintain high prosperity for at least three years [1] Group 3 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the index, indicating potential benefits from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of eliminating outdated production capacity in the paper industry as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry, which aims to promote green and high-end transformation [1] Industry Summary - The policy encourages the reduction of high-pollution and low-efficiency capacity, leading to the gradual elimination of old pulp and paper production lines by some paper enterprises [1] - Leading companies benefit from environmental compliance advantages and large-scale production capabilities, creating favorable conditions for capturing market share and optimizing the competitive landscape [1] Company Summary - The company is responding to rising raw material costs and the industry's "anti-involution" initiative by initiating price adjustments for cultural paper, coated paper, and specialty paper products [1] - With the gradual ramp-up of the company's 700,000-ton chemical pulp project, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is increasing, effectively reducing dependence on imported wood pulp [1] - The company leverages the synergy between its "paper + chemical" dual main business to further optimize production costs in the paper business [1] - The ongoing improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, along with the gradual release of high-end capacity and continuous upgrading of product structure, is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the paper business, providing strong momentum for the company's long-term stable development [1]

Core Insights - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.13% as of November 5, with notable gains from stocks like Xingfa Group and Sanmei Co. [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 102 million yuan over the past eight days, reaching a new high of 188 million shares, marking significant growth in scale [1] - A recent plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for an annual growth rate of over 5% in the petrochemical industry, addressing issues of overcapacity and signaling a shift towards quality improvement [1] - The petrochemical sector is crucial for economic stability, with its value added expected to account for 14.9% of industrial output in 2024, growing at a rate of 6.6%, which is higher than the industrial average [1] Industry Overview - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemicals (19.91%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at structural adjustment and the elimination of outdated capacity [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on November 4, with the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index experiencing fluctuations and currently down approximately 0.65%. Leading stocks include Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, Zhejiang Longsheng, and China Petroleum [1] - The oil output organization OPEC announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries, including both OPEC and non-OPEC members, decided to maintain an increase in production by an average of 137,000 barrels per day in December, but will pause the increase plan for the first three months of 2026 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the market has a strong upward expectation for long-term oil prices. The mid and downstream sectors are stabilizing at the bottom and are awaiting improvement. Although there is still chemical production capacity being released, the expectation of reversing the trend of overcapacity will drive industry profit improvement, maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term value of leading companies in the mid and downstream sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index. According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three industries in the index are refining and trading (26.8%), chemical products (22.4%), and agricultural chemicals (21.1%), which are expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reversing overcapacity, structural adjustments, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the performance of the petrochemical industry, indicating a slight increase of 0.05% in the oil and petrochemical index compared to the previous week, with engineering services showing the best performance within the sector, rising by 2.26% [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ future policies and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [1] Group 2 - In the crude oil segment, there has been a decline in crude oil prices, with a decrease in both crude oil and gasoline inventories [2] - The polyester market shows stable prices for polyester filament yarn, with an increase in price differentials and a reduction in inventory days for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, alongside an increase in operating rates [2] - In the olefins sector, the spot prices for sample polyolefins remain stable, with a decline in inventory levels [2] Group 3 - The refining sector could benefit from improved demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, which would be favorable for midstream refining operations [3]