来源：中国能源网 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 标的： 中邮证券近日发布石化行业周报：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌 3.52%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。原油跌； 美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求 ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：持续关注反内卷进展 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-12-17 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 ...

每日经济新闻 国海证券认为，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金 兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息 的优势。重点关注石油化工、煤化工、有机硅、磷化工、草甘膦等。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构 和淘汰落后产能等政策。 12月15日，中证石化产业指数低开高走，快速拉升上行，现涨约0.85%，成分股彤程新材涨超6%，华鲁 恒升、万华化学、华峰化学等领涨。石化ETF（159731）跟随指数上行，布局价值凸显。 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251212 今年11月进口同比增长1.9%，出口同比增长5.9%，增速分别较上月加快0.9和7个百分 点。CPI同比上涨0.7%,涨幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月 扩大0.1个百分点，主要受去年同期基数抬升和部分工业品价格下跌的影响。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 随着"两新"政策的效用边际减弱，以及汽车、家电、移动通讯等耐用品需求提前释 放，相关行业利润增长放缓，下游企业经营压力依然较大，仍在主动去库存阶段。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至24888.31亿元，央行本周共开展6685亿7天期逆回购操作， 实现净投放47亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美联储12月会议如期降息 ...

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构 和淘汰落后产能等政策。 每日经济新闻 12月12日早盘，A股市场涨跌分化，石化ETF（159731）小幅波动，现跌约0.35%，持仓股涨跌互现， 蓝晓科技、杭氧股份、东方盛虹等涨幅居前；云天化、中国石油、金发科技等调整幅度靠前。 华泰证券认为，伴随2025年以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加"反内卷"有望助力供给端协同及落后 产能出清，而内需有望进一步复苏及出口亚非拉等支撑需求，大宗化工品有望逐步复苏。油价长期存在 成本底部支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气增量的高分红企业具有配置机遇；出口方面，国内化工品具 备成本优势和性价比，国内轮胎依托性价比优势仍有望持续提升全球份额；高股息资产方面，伴随资本 开支下降等，主动分红意愿和能力或提升，磷资源有望维持至少3年高景气。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of eliminating outdated production capacity in the paper industry as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry, which aims to promote green and high-end transformation [1] Industry Summary - The policy encourages the reduction of high-pollution and low-efficiency capacity, leading to the gradual elimination of old pulp and paper production lines by some paper enterprises [1] - Leading companies benefit from environmental compliance advantages and large-scale production capabilities, creating favorable conditions for capturing market share and optimizing the competitive landscape [1] Company Summary - The company is responding to rising raw material costs and the industry's "anti-involution" initiative by initiating price adjustments for cultural paper, coated paper, and specialty paper products [1] - With the gradual ramp-up of the company's 700,000-ton chemical pulp project, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is increasing, effectively reducing dependence on imported wood pulp [1] - The company leverages the synergy between its "paper + chemical" dual main business to further optimize production costs in the paper business [1] - The ongoing improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, along with the gradual release of high-end capacity and continuous upgrading of product structure, is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the paper business, providing strong momentum for the company's long-term stable development [1]

Core Insights - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.13% as of November 5, with notable gains from stocks like Xingfa Group and Sanmei Co. [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 102 million yuan over the past eight days, reaching a new high of 188 million shares, marking significant growth in scale [1] - A recent plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for an annual growth rate of over 5% in the petrochemical industry, addressing issues of overcapacity and signaling a shift towards quality improvement [1] - The petrochemical sector is crucial for economic stability, with its value added expected to account for 14.9% of industrial output in 2024, growing at a rate of 6.6%, which is higher than the industrial average [1] Industry Overview - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemicals (19.91%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at structural adjustment and the elimination of outdated capacity [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on November 4, with the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index experiencing fluctuations and currently down approximately 0.65%. Leading stocks include Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, Zhejiang Longsheng, and China Petroleum [1] - The oil output organization OPEC announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries, including both OPEC and non-OPEC members, decided to maintain an increase in production by an average of 137,000 barrels per day in December, but will pause the increase plan for the first three months of 2026 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the market has a strong upward expectation for long-term oil prices. The mid and downstream sectors are stabilizing at the bottom and are awaiting improvement. Although there is still chemical production capacity being released, the expectation of reversing the trend of overcapacity will drive industry profit improvement, maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term value of leading companies in the mid and downstream sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index. According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three industries in the index are refining and trading (26.8%), chemical products (22.4%), and agricultural chemicals (21.1%), which are expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reversing overcapacity, structural adjustments, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the performance of the petrochemical industry, indicating a slight increase of 0.05% in the oil and petrochemical index compared to the previous week, with engineering services showing the best performance within the sector, rising by 2.26% [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ future policies and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [1] Group 2 - In the crude oil segment, there has been a decline in crude oil prices, with a decrease in both crude oil and gasoline inventories [2] - The polyester market shows stable prices for polyester filament yarn, with an increase in price differentials and a reduction in inventory days for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, alongside an increase in operating rates [2] - In the olefins sector, the spot prices for sample polyolefins remain stable, with a decline in inventory levels [2] Group 3 - The refining sector could benefit from improved demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, which would be favorable for midstream refining operations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a net inflow of 0.99 billion yuan over the past five trading days, reaching a new high of 1.48 billion yuan in total assets [1] - Over 300 basic chemical companies have reported their Q3 2025 results, with more than 250 companies achieving profitability, and over 20 companies showing a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 100% [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing an increase in profitability and a rise in industry prosperity, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a gradually easing monetary policy that may bolster global petrochemical demand [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemical products (19.91%) [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [2]