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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250821
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates a general cooling of the geopolitical situation, with the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine progressing gradually, causing oil prices to give back gains and continue weak operation. PX supply is recovering, and it is at an advantageous position in the industrial chain with stable bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; Brent crude oil was $66.84 per barrel, up 1.60%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $575.50 per ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $679.00 per ton, up 0.37%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $837.00 per ton, up 0.22% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, up 0.93%, and the settlement price was 4,742 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,689 yuan per ton, up 0.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,686 yuan per ton, down 0.09%, and the foreign price index was $624.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,844 yuan per ton, up 1.03%, and the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.15%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $261.50 per ton, up 0.32%, and the PX - MX spread was $158.00 per ton, down 0.42% [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,964 yuan per ton, up 0.98%, and the settlement price was 5,914 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 0.34%, and in the South China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8,650 yuan per ton, the price index of polyester POY was 7,100 yuan per ton, down 0.35%, and the price index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D remained unchanged at 7,150 yuan per ton [2] Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months [2] Production and Sales Situation - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms all remained unchanged on August 20, 2025. The sales rate of polyester filament was 74.19%, up 23.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.70%, down 4.34 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 103.06%, up 17.01 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4,778 yuan per ton (up 0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 790,700 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6,844 yuan per ton (up 0.77%) with a daily trading volume of 308,800 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,964 yuan per ton (up 0.81%) with a daily trading volume of 73,600 lots. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2]
石化行业周报:商品价格回调,石化板块走弱-20250804
China Post Securities· 2025-08-04 09:34
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, commodity prices have retreated, leading to a weakening in the petrochemical sector. Continuous attention is required on the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index closed at 2262.71 points, down 2.94% from last week, indicating a weaker performance compared to other sectors [3][7] - In the upstream sector, geopolitical factors may provide a premium for oil, benefiting upstream stocks. In the refining sector, a recovery in demand and progress in eliminating outdated capacity would be favorable for midstream refining [2] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $69.54 per barrel and €33.81 per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.1% and 4.2% from last week [10] - U.S. crude oil inventories have risen, with total crude and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) at 1,257,771 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,087 thousand barrels [15] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remains stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton, respectively. The price differentials have decreased by 101 yuan per ton [18] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, with operating rates for filament and downstream looms at 91.5% and 55.5%, respectively, both showing slight declines [22] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,710 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with changes of 0.13% and -1.11% from last week. The petrochemical inventory for olefins has increased by 70,000 tons, totaling 800,000 tons [26]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, and it is in the off - season of agricultural film demand with weak downstream demand. For PP, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and the industrial inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. - The main influencing factors for LLDPE and PP include cost support on the positive side and weak demand on the negative side. The main logic is the interaction between cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summary by Categories LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term anti - involution sentiment - driven increase has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for other films is flat, with many downstream enterprises shutting down for maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7340 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 23, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering the subsiding of macro - driven growth, off - season demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing industry. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.7%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, due to the subsiding of macro - driven growth and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with an increase of 1.4% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: The production capacity has also been growing from 2018 to 2024, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [17].
金信期货日刊-20250804
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the alumina futures market may fluctuate sharply due to market sentiment, but in the long - term, the price is likely to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of supply surplus [3][4] - The short - term trend of A - share indices is mainly high - level oscillation [7] - The long - term direction of gold is still optimistic, currently in a short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] - For iron ore, with the improvement of the macro - environment, it is in a positive feedback repair state, but recent fluctuations are large, so cautious operation is needed [15][16] - The fundamentals of glass have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, with cautious operation required [20] - The new US renewable fuel policy may boost the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning, but weak exports may limit the upward momentum [23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - The sharp rise was driven by policy expectations and market sentiment. On July 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned a plan to stabilize growth in the non - ferrous industry, leading to a large influx of long - position funds. The price climbed until it hit a resistance at the 3500 yuan/ton mark [3] - The subsequent decline was due to cooling market sentiment and fundamental factors. The sharp drop in the coking coal variety last Friday night led to a callback in leading varieties, and the alumina market has an overall loose supply - demand situation, with an expanding supply surplus trend and a decline in net export data in June [3] A - share Indices - The three major A - share indices opened lower and rose in the morning, then continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, and finally closed with a low - level doji. The National Healthcare Security Administration has formulated a "new drug listing initial price mechanism", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on the 2025 polysilicon industry special energy - saving supervision task list [7] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term outlook remains positive, and the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, with short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high pig iron output. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, with large recent fluctuations, so cautious operation is required [15][16] Glass - The supply side has not seen a significant cold - repair situation due to losses. Factory inventories are marginally decreasing, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it oscillated and declined today, and cautious operation is needed [20] Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up the Chicago soybean oil price to a contract high, and the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures will help the performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]
宏观与出口影响后尿素重回基本面
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 08:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].
大越期货甲醇早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton. In the port market, coal "anti - involution" reform supports coking coal futures, potentially boosting port methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability continue to pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and the mindset of inland operators, with the inland methanol market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, coal reform supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a weak supply - demand balance. Recent policies have a positive impact on the futures market and inland operators' mindset, with the inland market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation; rated neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 15, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated bullish. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 65.03 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons; rated bullish. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average; rated neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; rated bearish. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production this month, and northwest CTO factories are expected to purchase more methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is being actively sold, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained at 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port was at 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 2447 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value. The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 2395 yuan/ton, and in Fujian, it decreased by 10 yuan to 2430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price was 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was 8716, a decrease of 118 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value, and the import spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory at East China ports was 42.48 tons, an increase of 0.81 tons from the previous value, and at South China ports, it was 22.55 tons, an increase of 5.51 tons from the previous value [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, etc. Different regions have various maintenance situations, such as shutdown for maintenance, planned or unplanned maintenance, and device load reduction [54]. - **Foreign Devices**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc., most devices are operating normally, but some have experienced maintenance or have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises with methanol - related operations are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units are under synchronous maintenance, while many other enterprises' units are operating stably, with some having future maintenance plans [56].
多个化工细分领域迎新一轮扩产 企业承压下加速策略调整
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 02:57
Group 1 - Multiple chemical sectors are entering a new round of expansion, with the adhesive tape base film industry expected to reach a peak production period in August and the n-butanol industry set to add 250,000 tons of capacity in the second half of the year [1] - The n-butanol industry is experiencing a decline in price due to accelerated new capacity coming online, with an expected total capacity exceeding 7 million tons by 2029 [2] - The adhesive tape base film industry is also entering a rapid expansion phase, with a projected capacity of 4.2597 million tons by July 2025, and nearly 20 new production lines planned for August [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to drive technological upgrades and industry consolidation through the supply chain, impacting the long-term landscape [3] - Companies in the adhesive tape base film sector are reducing production loads to alleviate short-term supply pressures, while n-butanol companies are accelerating technological upgrades to enhance product value [3] - As policies are implemented, inefficient capacities are expected to exit the market, allowing companies with technological and supply chain advantages to dominate [3]
大越期货甲醇早报-20250730
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, predicting that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade between 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port market may see inventory accumulation, which could limit price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract, the fundamentals show that the "anti - involution" reform of coal may support the methanol futures and spot prices in ports, but potential inventory accumulation could limit the increase. Inland, the market is in a state of low supply and demand, with prices expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The basis indicates that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures. Inventory data shows a decrease in social inventory in East and South China ports. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some domestic devices are shut down, the methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and there is external procurement demand from CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed operation, there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, the MTBE operation rate has decreased significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factory inventories in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed slightly, with the futures closing price rising by 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 220 to 9834, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - **Price differences**: The basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, and the import price difference decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton. The price differences between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei have increased [8]. - **Operation rate**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 million tons to 41.67 million tons, while that in South China ports increased by 2.04 million tons to 17.04 million tons [8]. - **Profit of production processes**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 290 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 479 yuan/ton [20]. - **External market prices**: The CFR China price increased by 2.56% to 280 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.91% to 333.5 US dollars/ton, and the price difference increased by 4 US dollars/ton to - 53.5 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Prices of traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [29]. - **Production profit and load of downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 182 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 353 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88%. The production profit of acetic acid increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42%. The production profit of MTO increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 996 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [33][36][40][45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [56]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have planned shutdowns [57]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, and other regions are under maintenance or operating stably, with different operating conditions and maintenance plans [58].
尿素产业链周报-20250730
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:14
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy expectations and exports are expected to provide short - term support to the urea market, but high supply and weak demand will limit the upside potential. The urea futures are likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Market participants should monitor production costs and the progress of autumn stockpiling [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity in key industries. The proportion of fixed - bed processes in the urea industry has dropped to 10%, increasing the expectation of a marginal contraction in supply [4]. - Export orders are being continuously fulfilled. Enterprise inventories have decreased by 7.46% week - on - week to 895,500 tons, while port inventories have increased to 541,000 tons, alleviating domestic supply pressure [4]. - The top - dressing of northern corn is mostly completed, leading to weak agricultural demand. The incremental demand for autumn stockpiling of compound fertilizers is limited, and industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases [4]. - Although the daily production has slightly decreased to 196,100 tons, it is still higher year - on - year. With the addition of new production capacity, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. Data Presentation The report presents a series of data related to the urea industry, including historical data on enterprise and port inventories, futures trading volume and open interest, spot prices, production costs, production profits, capacity utilization rates, and export prices, as well as data on related industries such as compound fertilizers and the power coal market [7][10][17][28][38][43]
PX下方空间有限,PTA跟随成本能源化工
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 09:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX had a staged breakthrough due to improved macro - atmosphere and unexpected device situations. PTA also had a staged breakthrough as market sentiment was released, with the market trading on the logic of eliminating backward production capacity [7]. - **Future Forecast**: Crude oil price increase is lackluster due to the market's cautious attitude towards US trade negotiations. PX may have a supply reduction with the potential shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton PX device. PTA has low processing fees and production losses but no new official reduction or maintenance plans. Polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the weaving market remains weak. Overall, PX is expected to adjust in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Situation PX - **Futures**: The PX futures contract rebounded to around 7,000. On July 25, the closing price was 7,062 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton or 3.70% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 7,022 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton or 3.14% from July 18 [13][15]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were average, more active in the second half of the week. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 173 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,751.8 yuan/ton, up 47.2 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous period [16][18]. PTA - **Futures**: The price center rose step - by - step. On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 4,936 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton or 4.02% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 4,902 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton or 3.19% from July 18 [20][22]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 4.50 yuan/ton. The average weekly arrival price of PTA in the Chinese market was 614.8 US dollars/ton, up 11.2 US dollars/ton or 1.85% from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous period [23][25]. 2. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - **Domestic**: Many domestic PX enterprises had different load - adjustment situations, such as Ningbo Daxie running at 70% load, and some devices of Sheng虹 Refining and Chemical reducing their loads [30]. - **Asia**: Asian PX devices in different regions also had various operation states, including startups, shutdowns, and load adjustments [32][33]. PTA Devices - Some PTA devices were under maintenance, like the 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 2 - million - ton device of Hainan Yisheng. There were no new PTA device maintenance or restart plans this week, and the weekly operation rate remained stable [37][38]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Cost - **Crude Oil**: Without significant news, oil prices were in a stalemate. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 25 was 65.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.89 US dollars/barrel from July 18, and Brent crude oil's was 67.66 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars/barrel from July 18 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The supply was abundant due to increased exports from the Middle East and Europe to Asia, and demand decreased as LPG replaced it in cracking devices. The weekly average price of CFR Japan was 572.65 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 23.52 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX Spot**: PX continued to reduce inventory, and prices rose steadily. The weekly average price of CFR China Main Port was 851.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.50% from the previous period; the weekly average price of FOB South Korea was 826.80 US dollars/ton, up 1.55% from the previous period [55]. Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The profit was good, with the PXN weekly average at 280.82 yuan/ton, up 9.38% from the previous period, and the PX - MX weekly average at 111.90 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level due to raw material cost pressure from PX and poor demand. The average spot processing fee from July 21 - 25 was 228.17 yuan/ton [59][61]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory was 4.502 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of PTA factories increased by 0.13 days, and that of polyester factories decreased by 0.20 days [65][67]. Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products fluctuated slightly, with different weekly average price changes. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated at 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26% [70][79]. - **Weaving**: The off - season market continued, with weak demand in the grey fabric market. Most weaving factories faced losses, and new orders were insufficient [85][87].