1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum oxide's fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract was 2,827.00 yuan/ton, down 114.00 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of SHFE aluminum was - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of aluminum oxide was - 11.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2] - The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 258,839.00 lots, down 5089.00 lots; the open interest of the aluminum oxide main contract was 199,275.00 lots, down 3436.00 lots [2] - The LME aluminum canceled warrants were 148,050.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons; the total inventory of aluminum oxide was 475,344.00 tons, up 14029.00 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,445.00 US dollars/ton, up 160.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 420,875.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum was - 53,216.00 lots, down 13662.00 lots; the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.22, down 0.31 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 33,582.00 tons, down 1625.00 tons [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was 120.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 6,958.00 lots [2] - The SHFE inventory of SHFE aluminum was 454,571.00 tons, up 2527.00 tons; the SHFE inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 45,761.00 tons, down 7929.00 tons [2] - The SHFE warrants of SHFE aluminum were 408,197.00 tons, up 4639.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM A00 aluminum was 24,610.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; the spot price of aluminum oxide from SMM was 2,770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,525.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,005.00 yuan/ton, down 65.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 265.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [2] - The premium/discount of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 47.21 US dollars/ton, down 14.02 US dollars [2] - The basis of aluminum oxide was - 57.00 yuan/ton, up 114.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,794.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of aluminum oxide nationwide was 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum oxide was 801.10 tons, down 12.70 tons; the monthly capacity utilization rate of aluminum oxide was 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point [2] - The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum oxide was 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0.00 yuan/ton, down 19150.00 yuan; China's monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, down 56401.89 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's monthly export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide was 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the monthly import volume of aluminum oxide was 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum was 37.40 tons, up 22.90 tons; the weekly social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 139.70 tons, up 2.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,617.04 tons, up 12525.43 tons; the monthly total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,512.85 tons, up 3.00 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of primary aluminum was 10,040.43 tons, down 3270.78 tons; the monthly operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.94%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.60 tons, up 20.50 tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 tons, down 11.50 tons [2] - The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the monthly National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 tons, unchanged; the monthly automobile production was 341.20 vehicles, down 10.70 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound travelers, introduce measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket [2] - From January to February 2026, the import of automobiles was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, and promote the reform of automotive circulation and consumption [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged, but may take action if inflation expectations change [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position, and the Fed should not take action for the time being [2] - Fed Governor Milan called for interest rate cuts and believed that the Fed could cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The performance of non - ferrous metals is diverging. The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market sentiment. The Fed's interest - rate decision and inflation expectations impact non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but the future foreign trade situation is uncertain [12]. - High oil prices are constraining the Fed's monetary policy. There is an increasing risk of stagflation, causing risk assets to be sold off. Copper is affected by liquidity and market sentiment in the short - term but is more resilient than gold and silver. In the long - term, rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, and copper's price center is expected to rise [3][15]. - Geopolitical uncertainties affect zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless - steel prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends [5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market. The Fed's non - interest - rate cut and inflation expectations bring pressure to non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but foreign trade is uncertain. Energy cost increases support marginal costs, and demand orders are under observation [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Short - term price is under pressure but has long - term upward potential. Support is at 92000 - 93000 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. Recommend buying hedging in the far - month and using option strategies [3][4][15]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in consolidation. Support is at 22400 - 22600, and resistance is at 24000 - 24200. Pay attention to the continuation of the dollar's decline and downstream demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips. Alumina is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bearish view. Recycled aluminum alloy is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bullish view [6][17]. - **Tin**: Wait and see or take a short - term bullish view. Pay attention to capital sentiment, mine supply, and macro factors. Support is at 300000 - 320000, and resistance is at 380000 - 400000 [7][17]. - **Lead**: Prices are in a range. Support is at 16200 - 16400, and resistance is at 16800 - 17000. Pay attention to demand recovery and inventory changes [8][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Indonesian policies. They are recommended to buy on dips. Nickel's support is at 130000 - 132000, and resistance is at 140000 - 142000. Stainless - steel's support is at 13500 - 13600, and resistance is at 14500 - 15000 [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 95350 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and zinc closed at 23070 yuan/ton with a 0.59% change [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the net long - short position difference of industrial silicon (SI2605) is - 19417, with 2158 net long changes and - 3299 net short changes [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 95730 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22830 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Graphs related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, are presented [25][27][30][33][36][37][41][43][45][47][49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Graphs related to the arbitrage of each metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread, are presented [51][54][56][60][62][64][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Graphs related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes, are presented [67][71][73][74].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 26, 2026 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.41% to 13606.44, and the Chi - Next Index declined 1.34% to 3272.49. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1957.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4477.53, down 59.93 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1287.5 yuan, down 9.1. After the holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, with supply at a high level in the same period of previous years, and prices were under some pressure. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and there was still pressure on port inventory. From January to February 2026, the total import of coking coal was 19.8268 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.21% [3][4]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1792.6, down 18.6. Some coking enterprises initiated the first - round price increase for coke, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25. Mainstream steel mills have not yet accepted it, and the first - round price increase is still in a game. The iron - making water output increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons per day. From January to February 2026, China's total coke exports were 1.4341 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.87% [2][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil price fluctuated higher on Thursday. Supported by the strong crude oil price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated upward on Thursday. The night session of the contract had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. In April 2026, the domestic sugar sales quota was 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors such as a large short - term increase and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted out on Thursday, with a small increase. The night session had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 26, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1171 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.21%. As of the week ending March 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 668,900 tons, a 124% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly over, with export logistics facing challenges, but the overall supply is abundant. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 15.87 million tons [5]. - Domestic market: On March 26, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving the soybean export quarantine problem, and the market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans is gradually subsiding. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased last weekend, and the spot inventory of oil mills increased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume of soybeans in China will increase significantly from April to May [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 26, the main live pig LH2605 contract closed at 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%. Affected by the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction and the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The overall shipment enthusiasm was high, and the shipment rhythm accelerated significantly. The demand side was in the seasonal off - season, with weak downstream white - strip sales, low slaughtering enterprise operating rates, and limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 26, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to follow the crude oil price fluctuations, with the main contract P2605 closing with a positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9640, the lowest was 9482, and the closing price was 9614, a 1.09% decrease from the previous trading day. From March 1 to 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract had a narrow - range shock and finally closed up 0.17% at 95,350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,325 yuan/ton, with a discount of 25 yuan/ton compared to the main futures contract. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased significantly by 997,000 tons compared to March 19. The global shortage of copper ore raw materials is still expected, the smelting processing profit is limited, and the output increase is limited. The downstream demand of the domestic power grid and new - energy vehicles is steadily recovering [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 816.5, with a minimum of 814, a maximum of 820, and a closing price of 817, with a decrease of 349 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 26, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed up 0.18% at 817 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased week - on - week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - making water demand of steel mills recovered. The short - term iron ore price was in a shock trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 26, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 4.17% at 4543 yuan. The refinery production plan in April decreased to a low level in the same period in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery shipment volume decreased week - on - week. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.11 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,355 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 100 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased on demand [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 26, rb2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3305 yuan/ton. This week, the steel market may see an increase in both supply and demand, and the inventory is still in a downward channel. However, the overall trading volume of the steel market was average. The short - term steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 26, ao2605 closed at 2931 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity has not yet produced, which alleviated the phased supply pressure. However, the suppression brought by the new production capacity is still significant, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change. The downstream peak - season consumption expectation is lower than in previous years, and the market trading is dull [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 26, al2605 closed at 23,725 yuan/ton. The market is waiting and seeing the possibility of the US - Iran talks in the Middle East and evaluating the possibility of the situation intensifying again. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating smoothly, the aluminum - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still at a high level, the accumulation speed of the aluminum ingot social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum rod shows inventory reduction. The demand side shows moderate receiving, and the downstream and terminal restocking willingness exists, which provides certain support for the spot [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation between the US and Iran [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell 2.79% to $4379.82 per ounce. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by ten days. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow of 0.1 tons. It is recommended to consider re - laying out long positions as the sharp drop in gold prices digests previous negative factors [1]. - **Silver**: The international silver price fell 4.45% to $68.059 per ounce. It is suggested that previous short positions gradually take profits as the silver market follows the gold market's fluctuations [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. The market is focused on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.57% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side's operating capacity is relatively stable, and the demand side's electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain Middle East situation and the unclear implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1][2]. - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc and lead main contracts closed at 23070 yuan/ton and 16460 yuan/ton respectively. The lead market is affected by overseas declines, but the loss of recycled lead and downstream buying on dips may support the price. The zinc LME inventory is low, and the domestic social inventory is high but showing signs of destocking. For lead, pay attention to the destocking situation; for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or trade high - sell and low - buy [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 8735 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decrease in the number of open furnaces, but there is an expectation of increased production in Sichuan. The demand side has a recovery in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries, and the aluminum alloy industry's start - up rate has reached a new high. The price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 8900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan/ton. The supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has an increase in the production of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials. Pay attention to the new registration speed of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation at the end of March and the production schedule in April [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 35540 yuan/ton. The supply side's inventory pressure has eased marginally, and the demand side's product prices are declining but at a slower pace. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on downstream procurement and order prices [3]. - **Tin**: The tin price continued to be weak. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the downstream consumption is strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to the non - resonance between the macro and micro aspects [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price changed little. The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the US soybean has strong crushing demand. The US soybean may enter an oscillation, and the domestic market follows the cost side. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [4]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price declined, and the spot price mostly fell. The grain - selling progress is about 80% but slow. Policy wheat auctions have increased, and the wheat price is weakening. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton. Due to the rise in international crude oil prices, there is an expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures price continued to rise, and the international crude oil futures price oscillated strongly. The US cotton export sales increased, and the Indian cotton yarn export also increased. It is recommended to buy on dips in the price range of 15100 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price rose. The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has increased, but the overall supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price was weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply is strong, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side will see a significant reduction in domestic supply due to the non - commissioning of new devices in the first half of the year and the planned reduction of production by some existing devices. The demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract closed at 5650 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decline in production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to do a long - short spread [6][7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 05 contract closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The supply side has been affected by the Middle East conflict, and the port inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is dominated by geopolitical factors and shows an "oscillating - strong, high - volatility" pattern [7]. - **Glass**: The fg05 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton. The supply side is reducing production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - **PP**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side has a reduction in new device commissioning in the short term, and the demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price fluctuated due to the US - Iran situation. The conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on global oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the oil price may continue to rise; if the situation eases, the oil price may reverse [7][8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side's pure benzene and styrene inventories are decreasing, and the demand side's downstream enterprises are improving but with profit decline. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, the supply - demand situation may weaken [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton. The supply side's production capacity is increasing, and the demand side has a slight increase in photovoltaic glass production and a reduction in float glass production. It is recommended to wait and see [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The pessimistic sentiment in the base metal market has eased, and prices are expected to oscillate and recover. The supply side has potential support, and the demand side is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, with consumption improving [1]. - Different metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, but generally show an oscillating trend. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Current situation**: On March 26, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -15 yuan/ton; the TC of 25% copper concentrate was -67.2 dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -1.7 dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main logic**: As the Middle East conflict eases, market risk aversion cools down, and copper prices stop falling and stabilize. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply of refined copper is expected to shrink, and overseas smelters have cut production. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline [6]. - **Outlook**: The macro uncertainty exerts pressure on copper prices, but supply and demand are gradually improving. Copper prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Current situation**: On March 26, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2788 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 415,268 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 3,599 tons [7]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the balance between upstream and downstream has improved, but there is still a slight surplus. The warehouse receipt level is increasing, and the spot price is rising slightly. The Middle East issue has affected the production of electrolytic aluminum, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices has also raised the cost support. In addition, the disturbance at the ore end has intensified the market's concern about resource stability, and the market price is running strongly in the short term [7]. - **Outlook**: The reduction of electrolytic aluminum production puts pressure on demand, but the policy of Guinea's ore provides support. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Current situation**: On March 26, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton; the spot discount was -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.371 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 339,500 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons; the warehouse receipt of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 404,742 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 69 tons [8][9]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. On the supply side, the domestic production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is high; the Middle East conflict increases the supply disturbance of overseas aluminum, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is still restricted by electricity and other factors. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the high price still restricts demand, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum is low. The support on the supply side has initially appeared [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, due to the repeated capital sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by electricity and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton [11]. - **Main logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and the tax return policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. The high price restricts downstream demand in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased. In general, the cost support still exists in the short term, and the supply - demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, the supply side may have the risk of production reduction due to the cancellation of policies, the supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Current situation**: On March 26, the discount of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was -15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was -20 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was -60 yuan/ton; as of March 26, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 214,400 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -5,100 tons [11][12]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, Trump released information that the military conflict between the US and Iran was easing, the macroeconomic expectation changed, and the pessimistic sentiment eased. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The previously locked - price zinc ingots have completed export, and the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. In general, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may oscillate and stabilize in the short term [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply of zinc ingots has increased month - on - month. Although the downstream demand has entered the peak season, the terminal demand is weak, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The social inventory has not decreased for a long time. However, the military conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of zinc ingots and zinc concentrates, and the rising energy price has increased the pressure on European zinc smelters. At the same time, the export window of domestic zinc ingots has closed. Before the overseas smelters significantly increase production, the LME inventory is difficult to continuously accumulate. Currently, the processing fees of domestic zinc smelters are low, and the recent decline in zinc prices will further compress the smelter's profit and stimulate downstream procurement demand. Zinc prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,250 - 16,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,300 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was -65 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton; on March 23, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 63,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 52,867 tons, with no change month - on - month [13]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has increased, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt has remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, the lead price has slightly decreased, the loss of recycled lead smelting is still large, the smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [16]. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has gradually recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high. Lead prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,593 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -12 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -216 tons; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th; the Indonesian Minister of Finance said that if approved by the government, the windfall tax on nickel and coal may be implemented as early as April 1 [16]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the domestic production of electrolytic nickel decreased month - on - month in February, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to some extent. The overall supply pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory remains at a high level. The key is to focus on the realization of peak - season demand in the future. In terms of policy, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply - demand in February is still loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which exerts certain pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the realization strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance, which provides certain support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show an oscillating and strong trend, and the progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 45,736 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,139 tons; the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th [18]. - **Main logic**: The prices of raw materials remain stable, and there is still certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious. The key is to focus on the realization of the peak season in the future. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is running at a low level [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the realization strength of the peak season in the future. The current fundamentals exert certain pressure on prices. However, considering that the industrial chain profit has been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless steel is expected to show an oscillating and strong trend. The progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [18]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Current situation**: On March 26, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -25 tons to 8,780 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -387 tons to 7,757 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by -1,550 lots to 73,214 lots; the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 352,900 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -4,900 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - elevation areas, and the ore output in Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main producing areas is still fragile. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the high growth of the semiconductor industry, but the new global photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, the demand for tin ingots is expected to continue to grow. Overall, the supply risk still exists, and with the resilience of downstream demand, the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, in the short term, due to the weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, the price will maintain an oscillating trend [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, there is no obvious driving force in the short term, and with the macro - level pressure, tin prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2,811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial product index was 2,545.38, up 0.15% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 26 was 2,599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of -4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of -3.22% [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 26, 2026 [2]. - The report also provides the performance of various futures on March 25, 2026, and analyzes their short - term trends [11][31][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: In March 2026, IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 are expected to be weak and volatile. On March 26, they are likely to be strong and volatile [2][15][16]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026. On March 26, gold and silver futures are likely to be in consolidation [2][31][36]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, and other base metals futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026, while alumina futures are expected to be strong and volatile. On March 26, different trends are predicted for each metal [2][41][45]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026 and may hit new highs. On March 26, they are likely to show different trends [2][78][84][90]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026. On March 26, they are likely to show different trends [2][95][100][104]. - **Agricultural Futures**: The soybean meal futures are expected to be strong and volatile on March 26, and the butadiene futures are expected to be strong and widely volatile and may hit a new high on March 26 [109][110]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - China - Netherlands relations: Premier Li Qiang had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Netherlands [5]. - Market regulation: The State Administration for Market Regulation reprinted an article calling for an end to the food delivery war [5]. - Trade issues: The Ministry of Commerce determined that Mexico's relevant measures against China constitute trade and investment barriers [5]. - Middle - East situation: The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire. The situation in the Middle East has affected the prices of oil and other commodities [6]. - Economic data: Wall Street institutions have raised the probability of a US economic recession. US import and export prices have increased. The Fed and the ECB have made statements about monetary policy [8][9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - International precious metals futures generally rose, while US oil and Brent oil futures fell. London base metals mostly rose. Russia restricted the export of gold bars, and Saudi Arabia increased crude oil exports from the Yanbu port. Indonesia plans to impose tariffs on coal and nickel exports [9][10]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the US dollar index rose [11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 25, 2026, the main contracts of stock index futures rebounded. The A - share market rose, and overseas institutions are enthusiastic about Chinese assets [11][13][14]. - **Other Futures**: The performance of other futures on March 25, 2026, is analyzed, and their trends in March 2026 and on March 26, 2026, are predicted [31][36][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -115 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 259,986 lots, down 6,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was -36,054 lots, down 7,332 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.03; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt was 404,742 tons, down 69 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,931 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -47 yuan, down 2 yuan; the main contract position was 223,006 lots, up 2,224 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,820 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, up 80 yuan; the main contract position was 1,833 lots, down 1,730 lots; the registered warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,035 tons, down 1,390 tons; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2] - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum was 3,242 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 426,750 tons, down 925 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt was 153,925 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was 49.84 US dollars/ton, up 2.47 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,510 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,820 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was -90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was -215 yuan, down 115 yuan [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,755 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was -176 yuan, up 37 yuan [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,480 yuan, down 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly output was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the monthly import volume was 18.10 million tons, down 7.94 million tons; the monthly export volume was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the national monthly operating rate was 82.10%, down 0.39%; the total monthly capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0 yuan/ton, down 18,500 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the monthly export volume was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the monthly export volume was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total monthly production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the monthly operating rate was 98.93%, up 0.04%; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 130.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons; the total monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 24.04%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 31.84%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 18.57%, down 0.0064; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.75, down 0.1619 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House spokesman said the negotiation is still ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "close to ending" [2] - Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent country ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new bookings for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Netherlands [2] - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% [2] - The US - Israel military action against Iran did not meet expectations, and both sides' high - level officials shifted the blame. US President Trump blamed the Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff, and in Israel, the head of Mossad was accused of misleading the governments [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy, and the Fed should gradually cut interest rates to a neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year was raised to 2.7% [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said the ECB will take decisive action if the soaring energy costs lead to broader inflation, but is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle East situation is in a high - pressure tug - of - war. The market is trading around the possibility of a turning point in US - Iran negotiations, but the news is still fluctuating. All kinds of assets are expected to maintain high volatility in the short term [2]. - A - shares may continue to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the bond market will maintain an oscillating pattern [3]. - Precious metals are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, but it is too early to say that the adjustment is over [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [6]. - Aluminum prices may remain under pressure and oscillate for some time, but the fundamentals provide support at the bottom [7]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with a short - term preference and face greater pressure in the medium - to - long term [9]. - Cast aluminum is mainly in wide - range oscillations dominated by macro - emotions [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and relatively strong repair in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [12]. - Tin prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted [13]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [14]. - Lithium carbonate futures are expected to oscillate and rebound at a high level in the short term [15]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and be relatively strong. Double - coking futures are expected to oscillate at a high level [16][17][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate and decline in the short term, and palm oil is expected to oscillate and decline and adjust in the short term [21][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US - Iran conflict is in a high - pressure tug - of - war. The market is trading around the possibility of a turning point in negotiations, with stocks rising, the US dollar index rising, and gold, silver, and oil prices fluctuating. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable affecting oil prices and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: A - shares continued to rebound and repair, with small - cap and science - innovation sectors leading the rise. The bond market was generally warm, but the 30 - year interest rate rose marginally. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the bond market will maintain an oscillating pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to rebound. The US submitted a 15 - point cease - fire proposal to Iran, but Iran refused. The short - term price of precious metals is expected to continue to rebound, but it is too early to say the adjustment is over [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper continued to rebound. The macro situation is gradually improving, and the fundamentals show that the supply growth rate of concentrates is low, and the global refined copper production capacity is difficult to expand. Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [6]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and LME aluminum fell slightly. The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear, and the aluminum price may remain under pressure and oscillate. The domestic consumption is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply side may face the shutdown of 250,000 tons of production capacity [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the alumina futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The policy of bauxite in Guinea is not clear, and the futures position has decreased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with a preference, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is large [9]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose. The US - Iran negotiation situation is uncertain, and the market sentiment fluctuates. The cost support is stable, and the supply and demand are slowly rising. Cast aluminum is mainly in wide - range oscillations [10]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc oscillated, and LME zinc rose slightly. The CZSPT's second - quarter import ore processing fee guidance price decreased significantly, indicating a tightening of zinc ore supply. Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and relatively strong repair in the short term [11]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead oscillated slightly higher, and LME lead rose. The production of electrolytic lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. The demand improvement is limited, and lead prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [12]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin first rose and then fell, and LME tin rose. The US - Iran cease - fire negotiation situation dominates the market. Tin prices have a weak rebound driven by market sentiment, but the rebound height is restricted [13]. 3.10 Nickel - On Wednesday, Shanghai nickel continued to rebound. The macro situation is gradually improving, and the cost side is supported by policies and sulfur supply. Nickel prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures price rose. The US - Iran situation is still tense, and the supply from Zimbabwe is uncertain. The inventory is at a low level, and lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and rebound at a high level in the short term [15]. 3.12 Steel and Iron - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated. The terminal demand is recovering, and steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger [16]. - Iron ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The demand from steel mills is increasing, and the supply is also rising. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and be relatively strong [17]. - Double - coking: On Wednesday, double - coking futures oscillated and adjusted. The upstream production is increasing and the inventory is decreasing, and double - coking is expected to oscillate at a high level [18][19]. 3.13 Agricultural Products - Bean and rapeseed meal: On Wednesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. The US soybean inventory is expected to be at a six - year high, and the Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. The demand may weaken in the future, and the prices are expected to oscillate and decline [20][21]. - Palm oil: On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, but the US - Iran conflict and the Indonesian B50 policy still have an impact. Palm oil is expected to oscillate and decline and adjust in the short term [22].