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宏观角度看四中全会公报(一):注重释放更大规模需求
Orient Securities· 2025-10-25 13:39
Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes the importance of technology and domestic demand, marking a shift from previous supply-side reforms[6]. - The focus on "new demand leading new supply" indicates a more optimistic view on stimulating consumption and investment, with a notable absence of previous references to supply-side structural reforms[6]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in technology consumer goods and service consumption, driven by positive interactions between supply and demand[6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The commitment to dismantle barriers to a unified national market is stronger than market expectations, aiming to consolidate small demands into larger ones[6]. - The introduction of high-quality development as a new focus area suggests that institutional improvements will be a source of growth[6]. - The report underscores the importance of rural development, with initiatives aimed at modernizing living conditions in rural areas contributing to investment growth[6]. Group 3: Social and Governance Considerations - The emphasis on inclusive policies indicates a shift towards enhancing social welfare, particularly for low-income groups and improving basic healthcare and unemployment insurance systems[6]. - The report calls for a balance between social vitality and order, aiming to foster a more dynamic and creative society[6]. - The long-term policy direction reflects a higher priority on demand cultivation and social governance, which is expected to enhance investor confidence[6]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include fluctuations in external demand due to changes in tariffs and trade, which may exceed expectations[6]. - The impact of "anti-involution" on industry dynamics could lead to unexpected declines in investment[6]. - Technological advancements may disrupt certain job markets, posing risks to employment stability[6].