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中邮证券:配套政策对2026年光伏装机需求具有利支撑 建议关注一体化组件
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand expectation gap, with ongoing "anti-involution" actions on the supply side. China is proactive in energy transition, and related supportive measures are expected to be released intensively, potentially improving demand earlier than anticipated [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first nine months of 2025, the cumulative newly installed capacity in the photovoltaic industry reached 240.3 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, with a consumption rate of 95% [1] - The installation in September was 9.7 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 53.8%, primarily due to the rush for installations caused by the deadline of Document 136 [1] - The overall photovoltaic installation for 2025 is expected to reach 300 GW, supported by the gradual adaptation and optimization of the mechanism electricity price model [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policies on the supply side are continuously promoting improvements, and with China's submission of NDC 3.0, it is anticipated that related supportive measures will be released intensively [1] - The consumption capacity of large bases is expected to be accelerated, providing support for overall demand in 2026, thereby increasing the expectation gap [1] - The proportion of wind and solar power generation is continuously increasing, with expectations that it will exceed 20% for the entire year [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on integrated components, specifically recommending companies such as Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) and JinkoSolar (688223.SH) [1]