Core Viewpoint - The current photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing significant oversupply, with expectations for accelerated exit of outdated capacity by 2026, leading to potential profitability recovery in the sector [1] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry chain's main segments are currently in a state of substantial oversupply [1] - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to drive the accelerated exit of outdated capacity, while market-driven clearance continues [1] - The operational rates of second and third-tier companies are expected to remain low, with a rapid exit and restructuring of tail-end capacity [1] Profitability Outlook - It is projected that the photovoltaic industry chain could achieve annual profitability recovery by 2026 [1] - Forecasted silicon material prices are expected to range between 55,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton [1] - Integrated component prices are anticipated to be in the range of 0.88 to 0.99 yuan per watt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearing cycle by 2026, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and improved performance for existing photovoltaic companies. Public funds currently have low allocations in the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and improved supply-demand dynamics are likely to attract more capital [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - In 2025, the transition to market-oriented trading policies for renewable energy will lead to a phase of increased installations in the photovoltaic sector. In the first three quarters, China added a cumulative 240.27 GW of photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year increase of 64.73%, indicating strong growth. However, demand is expected to stabilize after the installation rush, with traditional markets in Europe and the U.S. showing weak growth while Asia-Pacific and Africa exhibit strong energy demand [2][3]. - The capacity of the grid to absorb and support photovoltaic installations is a critical factor for industry development. The reliance on large-scale centralized power plants is expected to continue, while policies affecting the revenue models of these plants will have significant long-term impacts [3]. Group 2: Subsector Insights - **Energy Storage Inverters**: The global energy storage market is on the rise, benefiting inverter manufacturers. The demand for energy storage systems is expected to grow rapidly due to increased photovoltaic installations, flexibility requirements in power systems, and advancements in storage technology. By the end of 2027, new energy storage installations are projected to exceed 180 million kW, with over 100 million kW added in three years [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon sector is undergoing a transformation with stricter energy consumption standards. Leading companies are forming merger funds to consolidate weaker capacities, which is expected to drive industry capacity reduction. Polysilicon prices are beginning to recover, crossing the breakeven point for leading firms [5]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The photovoltaic glass industry is entering a phase of capacity optimization and market clearing. Smaller production lines are exiting the market due to cost disadvantages, while larger lines are cautiously resuming operations. Demand growth for photovoltaic glass is expected to slow down, with thin and multifunctional products emerging as new growth points [6]. - **Integrated Component Manufacturers**: The competitive landscape for integrated component manufacturers is stabilizing, with significant reductions in capital expenditures. The supply contraction is expected to effectively reduce industry supply. These manufacturers are also extending their business into the energy storage sector, focusing on commercial and large-scale storage projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearing cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Outlook - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [1] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading companies within specific sub-industries, particularly in areas such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearance cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Summary - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in specific sub-sectors [1] Investment Focus - Specific areas of interest include energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and leading integrated component manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand expectation gap, with ongoing "anti-involution" actions on the supply side. China is proactive in energy transition, and related supportive measures are expected to be released intensively, potentially improving demand earlier than anticipated [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first nine months of 2025, the cumulative newly installed capacity in the photovoltaic industry reached 240.3 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, with a consumption rate of 95% [1] - The installation in September was 9.7 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 53.8%, primarily due to the rush for installations caused by the deadline of Document 136 [1] - The overall photovoltaic installation for 2025 is expected to reach 300 GW, supported by the gradual adaptation and optimization of the mechanism electricity price model [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policies on the supply side are continuously promoting improvements, and with China's submission of NDC 3.0, it is anticipated that related supportive measures will be released intensively [1] - The consumption capacity of large bases is expected to be accelerated, providing support for overall demand in 2026, thereby increasing the expectation gap [1] - The proportion of wind and solar power generation is continuously increasing, with expectations that it will exceed 20% for the entire year [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on integrated components, specifically recommending companies such as Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) and JinkoSolar (688223.SH) [1]

Power Industry - The power demand is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by stable macroeconomic development and new growth drivers, while the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to a downward trend in grid electricity prices, with pressure shifting from South China to East China [4][5] - New energy investment is projected to decline from the 2025 peak, with an expected new installed capacity of 250 to 300 GW in 2026, focusing on large bases and offshore wind power, while the industry structure is likely to concentrate further towards state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The recommended investment order based on sector trends and investor risk preferences is as follows: waste-to-energy > nuclear power > thermal power > new energy [5] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is facing temporary pressure on demand growth, with a projected global new installed capacity growth of approximately -10%, but the overall profitability of the industry chain has bottomed out and is slightly recovering [2][9] - The industry is expected to achieve marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships and further price recovery in 2026, with polysilicon and integrated components likely to turn profitable, while auxiliary materials like glass and films may see a rebound in profitability [9][10] - Domestic energy storage is anticipated to reach an economic turning point, benefiting from the increase in wind and solar installations, with significant investment opportunities arising from both domestic and overseas demand [9][10] Wind Power - The outlook for new wind power installations in 2026 is optimistic, with expected new capacity of 120 to 130 GW, driven by rising wind turbine prices, a recovery in offshore wind, and expansion in export directions [3][12] - The profitability of the wind power industry chain is expected to improve significantly, with the wind turbine segment likely to see a rebound in profitability due to increased demand and higher prices [12][13] - The domestic offshore wind sector is projected to continue its recovery, with significant growth potential in 2026, particularly in the context of a low base from 2025 [12][13]