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国泰海通:债券仍是压舱石 权益配置显著提升
智通财经网· 2026-02-14 08:48
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Haitong indicates a positive outlook for insurance company profitability driven by both internal and external factors, with expectations of improved earnings due to stable long-term interest rates and a moderate rise in equity markets [1] Group 1: Insurance Fund Utilization - As of the end of 2025, the insurance industry's fund utilization balance is projected to reach 38.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year; life insurance accounts for 34.7 trillion yuan (up 15.7%), while property insurance is at 2.4 trillion yuan (up 8.8%) [3] - The growth in premium income, expected to rise by 7.1% year-on-year in 2025, is attributed to strong demand for insurance savings, contributing to stable cash flow [3] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - By the end of Q4 2025, the insurance sector's allocation to "stocks and funds" is expected to total 5.70 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.60 trillion yuan from the start of the year, representing 15.4% of total assets, up 2.6 percentage points [4] - Stock assets are projected to reach 3.73 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.31 trillion yuan, while fund assets are expected to be 1.97 trillion yuan, up 0.29 trillion yuan; the stock allocation is 10.1%, up 2.5 percentage points [4] - The bond asset allocation is anticipated to be 50.4%, a rise of 0.9 percentage points, indicating that bonds remain a key component of insurance asset allocation [4] - Bank deposits are expected to account for 8.2% of total assets, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting a continued decline in deposit ratios due to low interest rates [4] - Other assets, primarily non-standard assets, are projected to decrease to 18.4% of total assets, down 2.7 percentage points, as a result of maturing non-standard assets and a scarcity of new quality non-standard assets [4]