Core Viewpoint - The A-share insurance sector has been experiencing a rebound since October, with significant gains in the insurance index and individual insurance companies, indicating a positive market sentiment and investment opportunities in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since October 9, the insurance index has increased by 7.96%, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 0.42% [3]. - As of October 16, the insurance index rose by 2.04% during the morning session, leading the A-share market [2]. - Over the past five trading days, major insurance companies such as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life have seen stock price increases of 6.99%, 7.71%, and 10.78% respectively [2]. Group 2: Company Earnings and Profit Sources - New China Life's third-quarter earnings forecast indicates a net profit increase of 93.06 million to 134.42 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [3]. - The profit sources for insurance companies include interest spread, mortality spread, and expense spread, with interest spread being significantly influenced by investment returns and liability costs [3]. - For instance, in 2020, the interest spread from life and health insurance for China Ping An accounted for approximately 40.7% of new business value [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook and Regulatory Environment - The overall performance of the A-share market since 2025 has been strong, with insurance companies' investment returns expected to improve, contributing to the valuation recovery of insurance stocks [4]. - Historical data shows that since the listing of insurance stocks in 2007, the insurance index has risen by 165%, outperforming the market by 55% [4]. - Recent regulatory actions, such as the guidelines for promoting high-quality health insurance and the notification on non-auto insurance business regulation, are expected to enhance product innovation and improve profitability in the insurance sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the insurance industry [2][51][58] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing market risk appetite and the new public fund regulations, which will enhance performance benchmarks [1][6][51] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a comprehensive positive growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance, with significant improvements in the liability structure [51][54] - The property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector experienced steady premium growth and a notable improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [51][54] - Investment performance varied among companies due to differing strategies, with a general increase in asset scale and a reduction in real estate exposure [51][54] Summary by Sections 1. Life Insurance Overview - The new business value (NBV) for listed insurance companies continued to grow, with notable increases: New China Life +67.9%, China Pacific Insurance +39.0%, China Ping An +34.9%, and China Life +4.8% [10][11] - The individual insurance channel transformation is deepening, with stable agent numbers and increasing productivity [13][16] - The efficiency of the bancassurance channel has significantly improved, supporting overall performance [16][17] 2. Property and Casualty Insurance Overview - The premium income growth for the "old three" P&C insurers was as follows: China Pacific Insurance +3.7%, Ping An Insurance +7.7%, and Taiping Insurance +1.0% [21][24] - The combined operating ratio (COR) for the "old three" insurers improved, with China Pacific at 94.5%, Ping An at 96.6%, and Taiping at 97.4% [27][30] 3. Investment Performance - The total investment assets of listed insurers showed steady growth, with China Life at 68,191.73 billion, Ping An at 59,200 billion, and China Pacific at 28,102.08 billion [31][36] - The annualized net investment yield for the first quarter was: Ping An 3.6%, China Pacific 3.2%, and China Life 2.6% [36][38] - The annualized total investment yield varied significantly, with New China Life at 5.7%, China Pacific at 4.0%, and China Life at 2.8% [38][42] 4. Profit and Net Asset Differentiation - The net profit growth rates for the first quarter were: China Re +43.4%, China Life +39.5%, New China Life +19.0%, China Pacific -18.1%, and Ping An -26.4% [45][50] - The net asset growth rates at the end of the first quarter were: China Life +4.5%, China Re +3.9%, Ping An +1.2%, China Pacific -9.5%, and New China Life -17.0% [50][53] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with life insurance product transformation expected to yield positive results and P&C insurance leaders likely to maintain their advantages [51][54][55] - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to supportive financial policies and improved market conditions [55][58]