保险资金配债

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机构行为精讲系列之一:保险资金运作及配债行为变化
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-26 03:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of insurance bond allocation has increased significantly, and the influence of insurance institutional behavior on the bond market trend has become more prominent, making the research on its fund operation and bond - allocation behavior necessary [1]. - Insurance funds are mainly regulated in terms of investment scope and proportion, asset - liability matching, solvency, and insurance asset management. The investment characteristics of insurance funds in 2025 present new challenges such as increased risk of interest spread loss and a large asset - liability duration gap [2][4]. - Insurance institutional behavior affects bond investment in aspects such as pricing power, seasonality, and bond - allocation logic and point selection [6][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Funds Bond - Allocation Overview - As of the end of 2024, the scale of insurance funds' bond allocation reached 16.32 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.2% of the balance of China's bond market custody volume, ranking fourth in the market. From 2022 - 2024, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of insurance bond - allocation increased from 14% to around 30%, and the bond - allocation scale grew from 9 trillion yuan to 16 trillion yuan. Insurance prefers local bonds and treasury bonds in bond - allocation [13][15]. 3.2 Main Regulatory Framework of Insurance Funds 3.2.1 Insurance Funds: Investment Scope, Proportion, Asset - Liability Matching, and Solvency Requirements - **Investment Scope and Proportion Restrictions**: China has formed a multi - level proportion regulatory framework for insurance funds. In recent years, the restrictions have been gradually relaxed, and the allocation proportion is linked to the solvency of insurance companies. For example, the upper limit of the allocation proportion of equity assets is related to the comprehensive solvency ratio [22]. - **Asset - Liability Matching Requirements**: Since 2017, the regulatory system for insurance asset - liability management has been continuously improved. Insurance companies should divide "ordinary accounts" and "independent accounts" for asset - liability management. Asset - liability matching includes term structure matching, cost - return matching, and cash - flow matching [25][26]. - **Solvency Requirements**: China is currently under the "Second - Generation Solvency" Phase II regulatory system. Solvency regulatory indicators include core solvency adequacy ratio, comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio, and risk comprehensive rating. Since the switch to the new rules in 2022, the solvency regulatory indicators of insurance companies have been under pressure [28][29][32]. 3.2.2 Insurance Asset Management: "1 + 3" Regulatory Framework and Dual - Track Regulatory System - Insurance asset management companies are subject to dual - track regulation based on the source of funds. Insurance asset management products implement a "1 + 3" institutional framework [34]. 3.3 Insurance Funds Operation 3.3.1 Liability Side: Premium Income is the Main Source of Insurance Self - Operation and Asset Management Funds - **Self - Operation**: Premium income is the most important source of insurance funds. In 2024, the insurance industry's premium income was 5.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The premium income of life insurance companies increased significantly, which supported the balance of insurance funds' use [38]. - **Asset Management**: As of the end of 2023, the total scale of funds managed by 34 insurance asset management companies was 30.11 trillion yuan. The proportion of bank funds increased from 6.75% at the end of 2021 to 14.92% at the end of 2023, but it may be affected by regulatory policies in 2024 [42][48][52]. 3.3.2 Asset Side: The Proportion of Bond Allocation Continues to Rise, and the Investment Income Performance in 2024 is Good - **Large - Category Asset Allocation**: There are two ways to obtain information on the large - category asset allocation of insurance funds: the annual survey of the Insurance Asset Management Association and the quarterly disclosure of the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Bonds are the most important allocation variety. The proportion of bond allocation in life insurance and property insurance companies has increased in recent years [55][65][68]. - **Bond Allocation**: Local bonds have the highest actual allocation value, and their proportion has continued to rise. Insurance has a low - leverage and low - risk - preference business model, earning stable returns mainly by extending the duration [71]. - **Investment Income Performance**: In 2024, the annualized financial investment yield of insurance companies was 3.43%, and the annualized comprehensive investment yield was 7.21%, increasing by 1.2 and 3.99 percentage points respectively compared with 2023 [3]. 3.4 New Investment Features of Insurance Funds in 2025 - Insurance companies' break - even yield requirements have increased, while the investment yield is under pressure, increasing the risk of interest spread loss. The asset - liability duration gap in the insurance industry is large, and the problem of "long - term funds short - term allocation" is still prominent [4]. 3.5 Impact of Insurance Institutional Behavior on Bond Investment - **Pricing Power**: According to the net secondary - market bond purchases of various institutions in 2024, insurance has pricing power over 30 - year treasury bond new issues, non - active ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and long - term credit bonds [6][9]. - **Seasonality**: Insurance has obvious liability - driven characteristics. Due to the "good start" of premiums, insurance bond - allocation also has seasonality, with larger bond - allocation scales generally in March and December [6][9]. - **New Considerations**: Insurance self - operation funds are evaluated based on absolute returns. Considering the cost of the liability side, there may be a desirable allocation point. However, due to the decline of the current interest - rate center, it is difficult to reach this point, so insurance funds may look for phased highs for allocation, protecting the upper limit of the 30 - 10 - year treasury bond yield spread [6][9].