Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (First time) [1] Core Insights - The policy position of real estate in the macro economy is declining, with the GDP contribution from the real estate sector decreasing from a peak of 15.3% in 2018 to 12.2% in mid-2025, returning to levels seen in 2009 [4][8] - The credit creation ability of the real estate sector has significantly decreased, with developers facing restricted financing channels and a decline in asset prices leading to reduced leverage among homebuyers [4][20] - The policy logic has undergone a major shift, focusing on stock rather than increment, with future policies likely to emphasize urban renewal and the management of existing properties [4][34] - The difficulty of obtaining excess returns through real estate policy trading is increasing, as market participants have learned to adjust their entry and exit strategies based on policy announcements [4][33] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like China Vanke, Longfor Group, and others, while also considering long-term value reassessment of commercial assets and dividend-type assets in a low-interest environment [4][4] Summary by Sections 1. Declining Policy Position of Real Estate - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP is decreasing, with a notable decline in the broad real estate industry's GDP share from 15.3% in 2018 to 12.2% in 2025 [4][8] - The direct impact of real estate investment on GDP growth has turned negative, with a contribution rate of -1.3% in 2022 and remaining in the range of -1.0% to -1.2% in subsequent years [11][12] 2. Shift in Policy Logic and Constraints - The policy focus has shifted from increasing supply to improving existing stock, with a clear emphasis on urban renewal and optimizing existing properties [34][35] - The policy environment is expected to remain supportive but with reduced intensity compared to previous years, particularly in 2024 [4][39] 3. Learning Effects in Market Trading - The market has adapted to the changing policy landscape, making it more challenging to achieve excess returns through real estate trading strategies [4][33] - The timing of market entry and exit has become more critical as participants anticipate policy changes [4][33] 4. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include China Vanke, Longfor Group, and others, focusing on both policy-driven trading and long-term asset value reassessment [4][4]