证 券 研 究 报 告 多资产配置研究 海外双周报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 【资产配置海外双周报】2026 年第 1 期 多重"反者道之动"的交点——为什么是凯 文·沃什（Kevin Warsh） ❖ 投资摘要： The longest way round is the shortest way home. —B.H.Liddell Hart 1. 下一任美联储主席的产生，还有其对于金融市场和美国财政风险的影响， 都不是按照之前投资者习以为常的线性逻辑展开，而是反其道而行之。 2. 起诉鲍威尔引发关键议员反弹，加上美债期限溢价不断走高，最终促使特 朗普提名了服从概率较低的凯文·沃什。 3. 凯文·沃什是支持降息的"反通胀斗士"——试图通过量化紧缩，恢复市场 纪律和财政纪律，然后进一步降息。 4. 凯文·沃什是有限范围的"鹰派"—— 针对享受着长期充裕流动性的金融市 场，对于实体经济和联邦政府，他显然是一个"鸽派"。 5. 凯文·沃什更像一个旨在通过调整货币政策框架和金融监管框架，把金融市 场过剩的流动性，导入实体经济和美债市场的超级操盘手。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is losing its long-standing advantage over opposition parties due to rising inflation and dissatisfaction among young voters, leading to a significant political shift [1][2]. Political Landscape - The recent Senate elections revealed a decline in support for the LDP, with opposition parties gaining traction, particularly the right-wing populist Sanseito party, which has raised concerns among investors due to its radical proposals [1][2]. - The LDP has not maintained a majority in both houses of parliament for the first time since its establishment in 1955, prompting calls within the party for a shift towards a more nationalist stance [2][3]. Economic Concerns - Japan's inflation rate has reached its highest level in over 20 years, with a 4.3% increase noted in early 2023, causing public discontent as wages fail to keep pace with rising living costs [5][6]. - The political fragmentation and calls for increased government spending have raised investor concerns about Japan's ability to manage its significant debt burden, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields [3][7]. Market Reactions - The 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 2008, reflecting investor anxiety over the government's fiscal situation and the potential for increased spending commitments [3][7]. - Despite political uncertainty, Japanese stock prices remain high, supported by foreign investment and corporate initiatives to enhance shareholder value [7][8]. Future Implications - The rise of the Sanseito party and its proposals, such as the phased abolition of the consumption tax, could significantly impact Japan's fiscal revenue, potentially reducing it by approximately 25 trillion yen, or over 4% of GDP [7][10]. - The political landscape may further divide into factions advocating for expanded government functions versus those promoting streamlined governance through tax reductions [11][12]. Geopolitical Context - Japan's increasing fiscal challenges and the economic pressures from tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Trump may hinder its ability to meet U.S. defense spending requirements, prompting a reevaluation of its foreign policy and alliances [12][13].